Ravi

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

I have been sitting for 1 hr and 15 min staring at a blank screen because I dont know what to say.

This started with my reading that Oman wants to build a canal bypassing Hormuz. At first the debate sounded along the lines why does Oman want to build an expensive canal when it can simply triple its old pipeline (1.8 million bbl/day) plus the new one which is 50% complete (1.8 million bbl day to 11-million bbl a day), at a cost of about $200-billion instead of a canal of $500-billion to $1-trillion (figures vary)? So I was looking forward to a debate on this valid point, when I started running into a series of comments basically saying "what's the point when the pipeline will be vulnerable to Iran missiles?" Wah wah wah.

There an answer to that: if Iran attacks the pipeline, the world can attack Iran. But instead of thinking positively, it was more "wah wah wah".

So am I supposed to believe since Iran can attack the pipeline (or the locks on a canal), we should cry like babies?

What is the matter with people? This is the most pathetic thing I have heard. We are supposed to let little Iran hold up a fifth of world oil?

So why not ask what will happen if Iran attacks the Suez, or Indonesia attack the Malacca Straits or what pitiful scenario you want to conjure.

The reason that people dont want to block oil flow is that noone is mad enough to want to get blown up by an irrate world in their turn.

Iran is playing with suicide and they're getting it with it so far because Preziness Trump is so hated by the world they're torn between holding their noses and helping the US on Hormuz, and comitting suicide themselves. (Prez T, please take note.)

As far as I am concerned, let the world commit suicide if they want to put personal hate before realpolitik. We (the US) have ample oil. So the price goes up unless Hormuz is cleared. But in time it will come down as the world (especially the US) switches to alt-energy.

(Right now, of course, the US Government is PAYING people to jettison alt-energy because of our oil interests. but I wont comment on US craziness here.)

Now what games the world is playing - especially the US - I dont understand. But if the US lacks the will to clear Hormuz, how are we going to keep Taiwan safe and Chinese imperialisim in check? (Wot a stoopid question - we arent going to fight China for Taiwan or anything else.)

Now, personally I assess Iran has no cards. If it wont collapse in three months, it will collapse soon after, and then Prez T can go "nena nena nena" to the world. (We're very mature here in the US). This entire problem is caused by Mr. Trump love of making "deals" rather than thinking of his country, and "deals" with an Iran that takes making "deals" as weakness. Otherwise we could be on our way to solving the problem.

Please understand I WANT Mr. T to succeed rather than suffer a total loss of credibility.

xxxxx

Hormuz 10 ships, 1.1-million DTW, B rent $96. Please notice more craziness: US is HELPING at least 4 ships a day run the US's own blockade! On my Sainted Aunt Sally.

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

OMG. This is simply unbelievable https://t.co/5WU4LaiEiE US Navy is getting serious about (a) getting its warships built in Japan/ROK; and/or getting components built (I assume this means the hull and possibly the power plant).

I think the US Navy realized some time ago that US shipyards are not able to do the job. Problems include (a) a very serious shortage capacity, which possibly is tied to lack of capital and building yards lacking vision;(b) shortage of trained labor, which is odd given these are top flight jobs, but I suspect there are disagreements who should pay for the long years of apprentice training, government or the yards; (c) the complete collapse of US civilian shipyards in the face of ROK competition and China's subsidized merchant construction, which has reduced the demand for skilled workers.

In their defense, US shipyards say the US Navy keeps changing specs on them even when ships are in an advanced stage of construction. US Navy could say home yards are simply not efficient enough to perform in timely fashion and the weapons technology changes too fast for them to switch to Mark 2 warships.

Now, I am not an expert on US warship construction woes. So please check for yourself on what I've said.

But even the politicians who want to defend jobs in their constituencies have come to understand the crisis (and especially maintenance/overhaul/modernization of older vessels) and the crisis is such that parochial concerns can no longer overrule national security.

What baffles me that ROK ships and not just cheaper (which is to be expected) but their shipyards work so bliffing FAST.

xxx
H.I. Sutton, the submarine expert says in https://t.co/ynqn5z19Au that China has launched a new class of submarines (120 by 10-11 meters) that may be conventionally powered with a low-output N-reactor for AIP. This is certainly innovative (if true). People have been talking about this for some years, but China may have done it. The hve experience with the concept, thwie T-042

This would significantly reduce noise (though US SSN/SSBS are very quiet and save magabucks. The boat is sailless. China has tried this before with no success.

Sutton notes the PLAN has launched T041 class (2024) with nuclear-AIP.

Sutton is careful to hedge his assumption that the new boat maybe nuckeay-AIP, saying it is possible it is a straight SSN.

The US turns out 1.5 boats a year, where as China has launched 15-20 boats in 8 classes in 5 years (double or even 4 boats a year.

With SSNs quality is everything and it is significant US keeps upgrading its Virginia class. V is under construction, class VI and VII are yet to come. I'm not impressed with China's 2-3 boats a class. At the same time, the US has fallen very short of SSNs. It needs 75 into the 2030s instead of the less than 48 it is likley to have. Granted these are top-quality. I am not arguing for less quality, but one boat can be only one place at one time. We need many more highest quality boats.

If I may add, a fave bugbear is the USN is completely fatuchied (Polite word for the more usual "f-----") on ship names. An example is the SSN names. They started out witgh tge usual submarine fish names, went to cruiser names (cities), then went on to state names. Since the SSBNs also have state names (battleships). There's only 50 states, we ran out of state names soon. So then we went back to fish names, but now USN is using city (cruiser names) again. An untidy mind set is not good.

Indian Navy used to be very good, but now they're fatuching up again. The Pakistanis at least I grudgingly admit seem to still consistent,

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

Okay, what really bugs me is China's claim to Kashmir. (Chou to Indian Foreign Service officials "when did we say Kashmir is not yours?" Then 2010: insist on stapling visas to Indian Army Northern Command passports, indicating Kashmir is disputed https://t.co/KBqWdBk4pU Then 2019 when China objected to India declaring Ladakh a Union territory. I'm ignoring Pakistan ceding 1963 to China.)

Now look, am I blaming China? Not a bit. I blame India for craven cowardice and treason to the Union of India. If by 1962 India had not realised that Chinese words are like Alice's Red Queen, who grandly declared mean exactly what SHE says, how can I blame China?

In 2026, India and the ruling elite are lying on their stomachs with their asses raised all to make it easier for China to rape India at its will (see my dozens and dozens of posts attacking India for not taking its northern defenses seriously). China is hardly to be blamed.

China has been gradually and patiently infiltrating Kashmir/Ladakh since 1950 (a mere 76 years ago), rather than blaming China, I blame India. Especially since after 1950 calmly let China takeover mostly Indian Ladakh (and now infiltrating to take over ALL Ladakh, and referring to Gilgit-Skardu as Pakistan's Northern Kashmir, then what am I supposed to do? My only suggestion is to give the Valley to Pakistan, and give Ladakh and East Kashmir to China . And stop wasting the lives of India's patriotic and loyal service people

Of course, it wont stop. Pakistan believes Agra and all Northern India is its. China believes it has a right to Northeast India and India north of the Ganges.

I remember discussing this with a learned gentleman from South India and pointing out even this would not be the end. Pakistan and China can make a case that all of India but the South is really theirs.

This gentleman replied: "So what? The real India is South India. You north Indians are a bastard mix of alien cultures." (!!!!!). Phew!!!!

Now look, people. From age 11 I believed I was American. From age 14 I was American.

But I cant forget Sunil Khilnani "The idea that is India". Which of course I read in America. India is much greater than the truncated territory the world thinks of as India. In fact, all of South Asia is India: Hindustan. It multicultural, multi-lingual, and multi-religious. Hindu dominated but with tolerance for other religions. This I believed before I left India for America. Yes, this not the sole history of India. For example, I have Pakistani friends who even believe Indian Muslims are not real Muslims. I know Ambedkar believed Adivasis where not Hindus.

But nonetheless, Indians have common roots (Indus Valley goes back 8 millenia according to Oxygen dating. The Advasis are probably co-temperous with the Indus Valley. The Dravidians may consider themselves separate from Aryan Indians, but they are Dravidian Hindus.

I am not an anthropologist, so my assertions are the merest sketches of sketches.

I have never believed that India is the creation of the British. India was already THERE millenia before the British. Just as modernization has brought us one America and one Europe (Bar Russia - who in any case have a weak claim to be Europeans) India too would have modernized and become one politically.

All I know is that when I look back to Prithviraj Chauham and subsequently, I see Indians betraying Indians. This was true of Jawarhlal Nehru, but is as true of India's post-Nehru Indians.

Just as Hemu caused the downfall of Prithviraj, The brave Rajputs handed over India to the Mughuls and so on. The Marathas cleared the way for the British. Nehru cleared the way for Pakistan and China. Modern Indian leaders are steeped in their own ambitions that have no time for India as India, and while busy making $$$$ weaken India by the year even as they claim THEY are the real India.

Okay, realistically at present China does not want to take over India. They'd rather have India as vassal - Pakistan already is a Chinese vassal. But look at history. The Muslims and British came for loot, they developed into rulers of India. Today the Chinese may want India as colonial economic vassal. Well before the advent of the 22nd Century, China may (and will) find its simpler to rule South Asia (as they are in all but name ruling Southeast and East Asia. Us Americans are so full of ourselves that we watch with equanimity as China breaks though the First Island Chain, are setting the stage to take over the Second, and are setting up reconnaissance outposts in the Third. Meantime, like India, we are tearing ourselves apart with little inkling of what's coming down the pike. For every prophet who warns of the undeniable rise of China, there are 10 Americans who think we are still the greatest who will, in some miraculous fashion, prevail.

If we Americans, who used to be foremost in pragmatism, can embark on destroying ourselves culturally, politically, financially - the richest of the rich already argue they dont need the state, they are supra-state. then what hope is there for India?

In the end India will prevail and so will America. In the meanwhile, we in America and you India will pay a heavy price.

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

https://t.co/xSfXV467zo

Iran state media say Iran will halt negotiations and block the Bab-el-Mandel straits too (Red Sea).

Meanwhile my President says things are going fine and he'd like for Democrats to stop giving him advice. Silence is golden, that sort of thing.

My President, I support you fully in this war. I do not support you in these fake negotiations. How can you negotiate with a regime that has a fundamental negotiation strategy of lying? They think they're winning because you will cave first.

Of India, my country of birth, its said they can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Now this is what we Americans are doing in Iran.

In any case we and Iran are going bang-bang again. There cannot be a ceasefire if they are attacking ships in Hormuz and still trying to lay mines. Have you noticed each time you think we have a deal with them, they escalate their demands. Because to them your willingness to deal is taken as a sign of weakness.

Lets say your blockade strategy is working, I can agree with you it takes time. That's why (a) you need to stop talking about deals that within days they repudiate, leaving the greatest nation in the world looking like a fool. Its not just the Democrats need to stop talking, YOU need to have a strategy of "No comment" which will get their last nerve. (b) you need to go after every tanker of Iran's.That means full mobilization of our navy for till such time their shadow fleet is destroyed. (c) you also need to prepare the American people for a long war.

I accept you are under pressure at home by GOP and Democrats. But this is what leadership means: Being tough. The pressure is nothing compared to the pressure you will come under if we pull out without achieving our objectives.

Pulling out or a nominal deal will signal to the world what it already suspects: the decline of the US.

At this stage just quietly say you dont want a deal. You want a total victory.

(PS: Abusing our allies is not going to get them to help us. This is not Diplomacy 101, its Common Sense 101)

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

Further update wiped out thanks to my admired Elon Musk not having time to run X properly as a job. Will make up tomorrow.

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

https://t.co/KAtaRSXw0z

As a Royal Navy fan this really pains me to say this. By year's end, RN will be down will be down to four frigates (T-23) and will be unable to provide more than one escort to one of its aircraft carriers. The RN went almost 20 years without ordering a single frigate. The T-26 and T-31 frigates are so delayed they may start entering service only in 2030 or later.

xxxxx

I havent been following RN, been focused on the steadily declining USN. Great ships, but not enough to interdict black fleet oilers around Malaysia/Indonesia smuggling embargoed crude to China. The other day one USN ship disabled one tanker by firing a Hellfire at its engine room (Great Sea Battles of the 21st Century). And ofcourse as you know US has failed a second time at building frigates, and cancelled the Constellation class the first of which was under construction.

I cant help but recall the words of Admiral Gorshkov" "Better is the enemy of good enough". Of course, the "good enough" of the USN would still be very advanced.

USN is tied up with a half-effort with 5th Fleet in Mideast. and 4th Fleet in the Caribbean for Cuba. Pathetic. How the mighty have fallen, though US Navy is still mighty compared to China Navy which - lets be fair - has never seen real combat - whereas as USN has 250 of combat experience.

xxxxx
The minesweeping mother ship RFA Lyme Bay is headed for Hormuz. If I recall right, it is manned by civilians and will need protection from Allied warships.

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

https://t.co/uR5l6orGKG Brazil is set to compete with China on rare earths. Please notice China still produces about 2/3rd of world rare earths and it has an unmatched supply chain. The article notes Oz produces huge amounts of rare earths and till now like a good colony sends its ore to China without value adding. Oz, like US and everyone else is adding to its supply chain. In Brazil's case. noone is guessing how long Brazil (or US) takes to bust China's monopoly.

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

India is planning its Type 18 destroyer with 144 missile cells and a reduced crew compared to previous designs, to allow more space for weapons. (https://t.co/1dVjpwrbzV) Electric drive (reduced noise), 50-100 KW laser gun, upto 13,000 tons.

Good idea. The problem? (This is India, there always has to be a problem.) Its so advanced India is not yet ready to build it (4 first order, 12 total). So its considering an advanced version of T15 DDG, to be called T15C.

My question is, just because Mr. Trump counts his ducks before they're concieved, why does India have to imitate him?

https://t.co/IHywp5sy7w says Pakistan is creating a distributed air defense network located in cities. Apparently last May 2025 India (Operation Sindoor) India targeted gaps in Pakistan's centralized network to cause considerable damaged. https://t.co/IHywp5sy7w implies that a centralized network will still have a place. For example, Pakistan will use mobile radars that can be folded up and concealed in dense urban areas. (Its TPS-77 with two vehicles was already deployed. I thought.)

Look, the problem is that Pakistan already has about 1700 mile front to defend. You need a whacking large number of SAM systems, long, medium, and short range whether you distribute them or have a hybrid centralized/distributed network, to give width AND depth. As Pakistsn learned with its AEW system (and is yet to learn) having something "just good enough" is better than nothing. but its npt good enough.

(India knows this in theory, but its as usual lolly gagging on numbers of AWACS. It needs a minimum of 18 IMMEDIATELY and preferably 24. See the P-8 problem. Darn good airplane, but you cant buy 4, fall sleep, and then wake with a start and take 6+ years to buy 4 more.

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

Sorry the update got wiped out.

President Trump to end Iran blockade is conditional, not unconditional as some earlier reports appear to indicate. So this is back to Square One in effect and no new news.

Hormuz: last 24 hrs: 4 ships, and there's the suspicious 515,000 DWT. Brent $92.

xxxx
Singapore Navy first Vicotry class "frigate" - 8000 tons is a frigate? Its a bloomin'd destroyer, Mon! - fitting out, second is in the water, 3rd and 4th steel cut, 2 more planned. 1st uses serial number 88, same as the first of the to be phased out Victory corvettes. 7000-nm range. at least six UAVS, air, sea, subsea as nearly as I can tell. 76mm, CAMMER 75nm SAM/ABM, Mica shorter range SAM, new SSM, 30mm CIWS etc etc. Truely a marvel for the new era is sea warfare. And <100 crew, we're reminded Singapore has only 6-million people.

6 Formidable frigates (3500 nm range) to be upgraded.

2 more submarines (making 6).

4 P-8As. I suspect there will be more eventually.

Singapore Navy is transitoning from gunboat coastal defense navy to bluewater, capable of protecting SLOC.

xxxx
India https://t.co/1dVjpwrbzV read at your risk
(a) India has completed its ABM defense of Delhi and Mumbai. moving on the Tier II Western cities. (Guys, what about North? Or has India giving up defendimg itself against China?
(b) India may stop its S5 SSBN at 4 boats (I think 3 are operational now) in favour of 17,000 ton SSBM.

I hear
(c) The South Korea SPAA deal is back on after long delays and cancellations. However many India orders you can be sure its will be only 1/10 of what is needed.

Oh oh. Its worse than I though: Biho K30. 80% manufacture in India. Only 104 units. Why do I still are what absurdities India commits? I dont live there last 37 years, am not Indian. Presumably will go to the 3 armored divisions, Pakistan has defacto 2 Armored and 4 Mechanized (two called Corps reserves IV and XXX Corps so as not to aggravate India. And India is not aggravated. Its so great. At age 80 I regret not staging revolution I'd planned at 24. I'm so dumb I'd probably be dead at 25. Can you stage revolutions with 4 pillows, 5 Teddy Bears and 9 hours sleep each night. Now I cant walk to the mail box at the end of my short street. Step on it, Janta Cockroach Party! You're India's last hope!

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

The High-Seas Black Market That Keeps Iran’s Illicit Oil Flowing

From Wall Street Journal thanks to Mike Thomposn

https://t.co/FTCtaMaWiO

Despite U.S. sanctions, the regime has managed to sell billions of dollars in crude to China using a clandestine network of aging tankers. Our reporters paid a visit.
Drone footage of an oil tanker off the Malaysian coast, with a previous name poorly concealed.

Quick Summary
The Wall Street Journal observed Iranian oil transfers off Malaysia’s coast, revealing Iran’s sustained sales to China despite U.S. sanctions.EASTERN OUTER PORT LIMITS—In this nautical no-man’s-land 45 miles off the coast of Malaysia, tankers laden with sanctioned Iranian oil sit low in the water, waiting to offload their cargo to vessels bound for Chinese refineries.They lower tarps and other objects over the names on their hulls and use black paint to conceal identity numbers.

They’re here to carry out an elaborate deception: offshore trysts known as ship-to-ship transfers, in which one vessel offloads sanctioned oil onto another to help obscure the oil’s origins before it is sent on to Iran’s biggest customer.These clandestine oil transfers reveal a key strength of the Iranian regime and a major reason why it has been able to hold firm for so long against American pressure: Iran can still sell its oil. In negotiations, the U.S. has so far resisted lifting oil sanctions against Iran. But the regime’s workaround is still bringing in crucial hard currency.

The Wall Street Journal recently observed this up close. On a May 8 visit by boat, Wall Street Journal reporters watched as the Catalina 7, an aging vessel sanctioned by the U.S. for carrying Iranian crude, transferred oil through a thick hose with a ship whose name was covered by black paint.📷

Ship-to-ship transfer process

1 One vessel approaches another one, generally at an angle. 2 The crews use mooring ropes to lash the ships as close as 11 feet from each other so that they roll in the waves together. Large black fenders are lowered to prevent the larger ship from crushing the smaller one.FendersTransferhose 3A giant hose is lifted from the laden ship to the empty one and oil is pumped, sometimes more than a million barrels at a go. Depending on the amount of oil transferred, the ship-to-ship transfer can take between one to several days.Mooring ropes 4.The emptied vessel then returns to Iran—or at least used to, before the blockade—while the newly laden one steams on to https://t.co/qzvuUcGGE0 ChinaTo IranSource: staff reportsRoque Ruiz/WSJThe ships had lowered giant fenders between them to prevent the Catalina 7 from crushing the smaller ship as they rolled in the waves. Workers in orange vests and hard hats scurried around the Catalina 7’s deck during the transfer.Old and rusting tankers like these form what maritime experts call the “shadow fleet,” a roving armada of hundreds of vessels that ferry oil for sanctioned regimes, including Iran and Russia. Iran relies on such tankers for nearly all of its oil exports.

The ships, sometimes uninsured, have hidden owners and sail under “flags of convenience” from countries that pay little scrutiny to what the vessels are doing. At sea, the ships use deceptive practices such as turning off their tracking devices to make it harder to follow them.Washington’s failure to stop the fleet, which has mushroomed in size in recent years, helps explain why the Iranian regime has proved so resilient.Despite U.S. efforts to suffocate the smuggling, Tehran reaped around $31 billion in oil revenue from China last year, according to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a Congressional group. That amounted to around 90% of the oil Iran sold abroad and accounted for about 45% of its government’s budget, the group said.

As Iran’s main lifeline, China helps ensure the shadow fleet for Iranian oil stays afloat. Many entities that act as the tankers’ legal owners are registered in Chinese cities, and many of the ships’ crews come from China. This month, China’s government explicitly ordered domestic firms not to comply with U.S. sanctions on five Chinese refineries, invoking for the first time a 2021 “blocking rule” designed to neutralize foreign laws it believes violate international norms or restrict n oil tanker unloads crude oil at the port of Qingdao, in China's eastern Shandong province.. AFP/Getty Images📷
Before the U.S. war in Iran began, China was getting around 1.4 million barrels a day from the country, or roughly 12% of its oil imports, at a discount to international prices.The U.S. has dramatically escalated its fight against the trade recently. In addition to blockading Iranian ports, it has imposed a flurry of new sanctions against oil tankers and Chinese oil infrastructure. It recently dispatched U.S. Special Forces to rappel down from helicopters onto the decks of two shadow tankers in the Indian Ocean.Last week, the U.S. seized a third Iran-linked oil tanker in the Indian Ocean after it had visited the coast off Malaysia.

The ship was likely loaded with more than a million barrels of crude at Iran’s Kharg Island in February, the Journal reported, and appeared to be heading back to the Middle East when it was https://t.co/HZ5WesgMQi truly rein in the fleet, though, the U.S. would likely need to maintain a warlike footing against the ships indefinitely, keeping its blockade on Iranian ports, using military assets to intercept shadow-fleet ships, and intensifying pressure on China. If it lets up, the oil would likely flow uninterrupted again, maritime experts say.A U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyer intercepts the Iranian-flagged oil tanker M/V Stream as part of the maritime blockade of Iranian shipping. Us Navy/Planet Pix/ZUMA Press📷
Energy analytics company Vortexa recently estimated there were some 90 million barrels of Iranian oil outside of the blockade, most or all of which left Iranian waters before the closure began. The oil is effectively in offshore storage, potentially providing billions of dollars in additional funds to the Iranian regime in the coming months.

It takes two to three months for Iranian oil to reach Chinese ports, and another two to three months for Iran to receive payment, so even if the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t reopen, Iran will likely be receiving money for its oil on the water until October, said Iman Nasseri, managing director of Middle East Research at energy analytics company FGE NexantECA in Dubai, who once worked in the research arm of Iran’s Ministry of Petroleum.“Economic Fury was supposed to bring them to their knees,’ he said, referring to the U.S. economic campaign against Iran. But compared with other oil exporters in the region “Iran is suffering the least,” he said.A U.S. Treasury Department spokeswoman said the department is pursuing shadow fleet targets, and that U.S. sanctions are depriving the Iranian regime of oil revenue to fund weapons programs and terrorism.“Under President Trump’s strong leadership, Treasury will continue to stop the Iranian regime from plundering the country’s natural resources in the name of terrorism,” the spokeswoman said.

China’s Foreign Ministry has said it firmly opposes the U.S. clampdown, which it says involves “illegal and unreasonable unilateral sanctions,” and that it would do whatever is necessary to protect its energy security. The ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment on this article.This handout photo from United Against Nuclear Iran shows two oil tankers making a ship-to-ship transfer of Iranian oil in the Eastern Outer Port Limits last July.

Officially, China hasn’t logged any imports of Iranian oil since 2022. Analysts say this likely reflects a desire by Beijing to avoid having more of its refineries, ports and banks sanctioned by Washington. Despite China’s open criticism of U.S. sanctions, having more of its economy cut off from the dollar financial system would cripple its export machine.Sleuths are able to track the shipments, however, by following occasional pings from the shadow ships’ transponders, which are sometimes turned on for safety to navigate narrow straits. Researchers supplement that information with satellite images of the vessels making ship-to-ship transfers and then docking in Chinese ports, enabling them to trace the oil’s journey from Iran to China.

The shipments also show up in other ways: Customs data record that China imported 126 million barrels of oil from Malaysia and 102 million barrels from Indonesia in the first four months of the year. Those numbers exceeded the past production levels of the two countries, and are seen by analysts as proxies of China’s estimated crude oil imports from Iran.The oil typically goes to private refineries, called teapot refineries, in the eastern Chinese province of Shandong and northeastern province of Liaoning. Because these operations rely mainly on Chinese banks and customers, and don’t interact with the U.S. financial system, they are beyond the reach of U.S. sanctions.

‘Epicenter of maritime lawlessness’
The Eastern Outer Port Limits, or EOPL, as the area is known in the shipping industry, has become a pivotal pit stop for the oil, serving as the location of choice for ship-to-ship transfers that Chinese buyers and Iranian sellers use to help dodge the sanctions.Located midway between Chinese and Iranian waters, the roughly 500-square-mile area usually has calm waters and is within Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone, yet outside of its territorial waters. That makes it a legal gray area where there’s little urgency for anyone to claim

In one common scenario, a shadow fleet ship picks up oil in Iran and sets sail for the EOPL. There, it transfers the oil to another vessel. Then, the second ship proceeds to China, where the oil is offloaded and sent to a refinery.The ship-to-ship transfer witnessed by Wall Street Journal reporters at the northern end of the EOPL.
📷In addition to helping disguise the oil’s origin, the transfer often moves the crude from a sanctioned ship to an unsanctioned one, lowering risks for the Chinese port that receives it.Maritime Vice Admiral Saiful Lizan bin Ibrahim, a senior official in Malaysia’s coast guard, acknowledged the shadow fleet’s presence near Malaysia. But he said it is hard to intervene because the ships often operate outside of Malaysia’s “direct enforcement jurisdiction,” and use evasive tactics, switching locations whenever law enforcement pressure rises.

He added that Malaysia maintains a neutral foreign policy and doesn’t automatically comply with unilateral sanctions. It also has limited resources for maritime surveillance. Even so, it has detained more than a dozen vessels for unauthorized anchoring this year, he https://t.co/jP8HcZPcoA early May, when the Journal chartered a supply boat to visit the area, it resembled a giant tanker parking lot, with dozens of ships.Between 2023 and 2025, the number of observed ship-to-ship transfers in the EOPL more than doubled, from 280 to 679, according to United Against Nuclear Iran, or UANI, a U.S.-based advocacy group that uses satellite data to track them, which cited strong Chinese demand.“This is a critical logistics node,” said Charlie Brown, a former U.S. naval officer based in Singapore who works for UANI. “China cannot get its oil from Iran without going through the EOPL.”In all, some 1.4 million barrels of oil a day passed from Iran to China via the shadow fleet over the past year, according to https://t.co/Q5VEBFDta9.

An entire offshore ecosystem has sprung up to service the ships, which can’t easily enter international ports because they’re sanctioned.Bunker vessels hunker in the area for months or years, providing a steady supply of fuel. Support ships carrying supplies or repair crews are commissioned from the shore—at a hefty price, because of the remote location, and to compensate for the sanctions risks that come with servicing the shadow fleet.Peddlers speed by in small boats known as sampans, offering crew members cigarettes and Indonesian Bintang beer. Bored sailors pass time by joking on the radio, meowing like cats and slinging random curses at passing ships.The area resembles a giant tanker parking lot, with dozens of ships.
📷It’s a “little epicenter of maritime lawlessness,” said Michelle Bockmann, a maritime intelligence analyst at Windward, saying ships used a “smorgasbord of deceptive shipping tactics” to stay off authorities’ radars.

Some, such as the Catalina 7, stay around for weeks as floating oil platforms. They fill up with Iranian and Russian oil from passing tankers and redistribute it to other ships.The Catalina 7, built in 2007, is registered to a Hong Kong-based company called Canes Venatici, which means “hunting dogs” in Latin, and is sanctioned by the U.S. for its links to the Iranian oil trade.

It couldn’t be determined who owns Canes Venatici. No one was present when a Journal reporter visited its registered address, a secretarial service in an old building in Hong Kong’s Kwun Tong area. A neighbor said the office rarely had any staff, just an occasional visitor to collect mail.

On recruiting websites, a seafarer surnamed Wang posted that he was recently on the Catalina 7 between last May and this March, traveling between Southeast Asia and China. His employer, according to his post, is PrimCrew Global, a Shandong-based staffing company that didn’t reply to requests for comment.

Another Chinese crew member involved in ship-to-ship transfers off Malaysia’s coast told the Journal that transferring sanctioned oil had become routine. He said he saw nothing wrong with the maneuverer, because neither he, nor China’s government, recognizes the validity of U.S. sanctions.

Growing fleet

Iran tapped the shadow fleet to transport its oil after the Obama administration tightened sanctions in 2012, and increased its use after Trump ratcheted up pressure in 2018. The shadow fleet, which also transfers other sanctioned countries’ oil, grew rapidly to accommodate Russian oil after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and now numbers around 1,500 ships according to https://t.co/Q5VEBFDta9.📷

Main shadow fleet oil routes(barrels per day, over the past year)RUSSIARUSSIA to CHINA:1,021,407Russia to INdia:964,212 CHINAINDIAVENEZUELA* TO CHINA: 403,964 VENEZ.IRAN to CHINA:1,436,260 Note: As of May 27th.
*Venezuelan export patterns have changed significantly in recent months amid political changes.
Source: https://t.co/Q5VEBFDta9

Typically, the tankers’ ownership is hidden under layers of shell companies in Chinese cities or other places such as Dubai. The ships also frequently switch their flags. Just as people have nationalities and passports, merchant vessels must be registered to individual countries, which are supposed to ensure proper labor practices and other standards are adhered to onboard.

Shadow-fleet shipowners avoid such scrutiny by securing flags from poor, developing countries such as Sierra Leone, which collect fees for registering the ships, but provide little oversight.All of this makes fighting the proliferation of shadow fleet ships a game of whack-a-mole. After being sanctioned, they can change their names or the names of their ownership companies, along with the ship’s flag, and then return to business.

One 800-foot oil tanker built in 2004, known as Seasky, was sometimes chartered by Western oil companies before being sanctioned by the U.S. in 2025 for transporting Iranian oil on behalf of the National Iranian Oil Company.

The ship swiftly changed its flag from San Marino to Gabon, and its name from Seasky to Hanson. It then completed numerous roundtrips between the EOPL off Malaysia’s coast and the Chinese city of Dongying, a teapot-refinery hub, according to financial data provider LSEG.Neither the ship’s registered owner, Seasky Marine Co. in Shanghai, nor its staffing agency Taihua Ship Management, replied to emails seeking comments.China connections

In China, a cottage industry has sprung up to ensure the shadow fleet stays operational and delivers its oil to refineries. Ship management companies openly advertise jobs on the tankers, even though such postings could put them at risk of violating U.S. sanctions.“Short-haul transport of methanol from Iran to the rest of the Persian Gulf; crew change in Dubai,” said one advertisement posted this month by a ship management company in the city of Xi’an recruiting seafarers. The captain would get paid $26,000 a month, around twice as much as for more routine journeys.This 2023 photo released by the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency shows the tanker MT Pablo after the vessel caught fire off Malaysia's southern coast.

Lower-level Chinese staff on shadow-fleet tankers typically get paid about $1,000 to $3,000 more per journey than they would on more standard routes, according to videos posted by Chinese crew members on social media.Some of these Chinese sailors have been stuck in the Strait of Hormuz for nearly 90 days. In regular casual chats with a Journal reporter, many voiced their strong preference for Chinese chefs on board and lamented the lack of fresh water and the dominance of fish in their current diet.The companies have to pay more because of the known risks of signing up for a shadow-fleet gig. In addition to being sanctioned, the ships are often past 15 years old, which is when parts start breaking down. There is also a greater risk of oil spills and crew

In May 2023, the 26-year-old shadow tanker Pablo blew up off the coast of Malaysia, killing three crew members. The ship, which researchers had linked to Iranian oil transfers, had been sailing under a Gabonese flag. No owner ever claimed the vessel, which was later towed away and dismantled.

Malaysia detained a U.S.-sanctioned vessel, the Nora, a 24-year-old ship registered in Shanghai which was carrying Iranian oil and conducting a ship-to-ship transfer in the region.

Malaysian authorities said they collected fines from an agent for the Nora totaling around $33,000, and then released the ship and its crews, saying the case showed “the significant economic implications” of syndicate operations.

Emails and calls to the ship’s Shanghai-based manager, Shanghai Tucson Roy Shp Mgmt, were unanswered. The Nora wasted little time getting back in business, however. Satellite tracking data showed the ship docked at Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub, in early March. It then crossed the Strait of Hormuz, laden with oil, before the U.S. embargo blocked Iran-linked ships from leaving, and traveled back to off the coast of Malaysia.

In late April satellite data captured the Nora discharging oil onto another ship, the Luna Luster, which sped off to the waters of northern China, and is currently hanging around near Rizhao, a key port city for teapot refineries, waiting to discharge its oil, according to LSEG.

On May 19, Washington sanctioned the Luna Luster, saying the Sierra-Leone flagged tanker has transported millions of barrels of Iranian oil since mid-2025.📷May 25:The Luna Luster is waiting with its load in the waters off Rizhao, China, a Chinese oil-transportation hub.IRANCHINAMarch 7:The Nora

docks at Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export and loading hub.*April 21-24:The Nora unloads oil to theLuna Luster in a multiple day ship-to-ship transfer off the coast of southern Malaysia.*According to satellite imagery. Vessel tracking information not available for dotted line.Source: MarineTraffic, United Against Nuclear IranEmma Brown/WSJA Journal reporter spotted the Nora from a passing boat off the coast of Malaysia this month. The ship had painted over its name and identity number, and turned off its tracking signal. But an incomplete paint job meant its name was still visible through binoculars. it has declared a new nationality at least seven times over the past decade, and for a while was flagged as Iranian, but since last year it has flown a false Guyanese flag, according to public records. After the Journal reporter saw the ship this month, satellite images captured the Nora in another ship-to-ship transfer. This time, it was on the receiving end, offloading oil from the Iran-flagged Derya, one of the last tankers to cross the Strait of Hormuz around the time the blockade began. It was proof, yet again, said Brown, the researcher at UANI, that “sanctions alone don’t stop the ships.”

Write to Jon Emont at [email protected] and Rebecca Feng at [email protected]

Editor. America. you ae out classed at this game because you ran down your Navy. Now read and weep.

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

Now look. Ma Fellah Markans (courtesy of LBJ) you gotta get a grip on yourselves or our great country is on a one way trip to The Hot Place Downstairs (my home after I die).

Whomever "swatted" Supreme Court Justice Amy Comey Barrett did a destructive thing when they called 911 pretending her life was in danger, triggering an all-out response by law enforcement.

(a) Dear disgusted American, tying up law enforcement meant they were unable to do their job of protecting YOU and YOUR loved ones. So this was not a good idea.

(b) Justice Barrett has a family that includes 7 children, some adopted across racial lines. She gets death threats as a matter of routine. Your actions endanger you and her family and could inspire some whacko to actually target her.

(c) This is not a good idea because attacking a Supreme is to strike at the very foundation of America.

(d) Justice Barrett is a conservative judge. So what? Arent judges also liberal. I dont like the way the Supremes some rule because they have a 6-3 conservative majority. Am I targeting anyone? Justice Barrett arrives at conclusions according to her strict interpretation of law. Would have it any other way, angry though you may be about the President?

(e) Obviously the Constitution was written 250 some years before the Time of Trump. If Congress has abdicated its reponsibility to make the law, how is that her fault? You have a recourse. VOTE. And recall Mr. Trump was LAWFULLY elected, how much you and I may be unhappy about the results.

(f) In a democracy we cant settle disputes by using guns or threatening to use guns. If democracy collapses because of violence/threatend violence, YOU could be next. In your own self-interest, dont do illgeal things,.

[Have you notices I cant spell< Its because I'm dyslexic. Once, when I could afford it, I used Grammerly, I havnt used it for year because of $$$, the root of my material problems. Now, I've cleaned Grammerly out and I rely on Twitter's spell checker. This worked for many years. But now Grammerly blocks Twitter's spell check, and I cant go through the pages of solutions: I'm not smart enough.]

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

https://t.co/nElxUSCO1m

Unusually, there's a lot of Iran news today, so we'll have to take matters in stages today so I can eat, attend to my wife (who is starting her 7th month of hospital imprisonment- I'll tell you this later), go take a leak etc. I.e., usual functions of life. The only person I know who doesnt need to do this is my defense analyst friend Tom Cooper from Austria. He obviously has at least two clones to help him.)

Iran has attacked Kuwait again. Why this insanity when ceasefire talks are underway? There could be three overlapping reasons.

(a) Iran is convinced it's winning
(b) We'll discuss this later - Iran may have the resources to hang on till October, and is counting on US domestic pressure/November elections to get US to cave
(c) There are rumors the US is preparing to restart offensives and so Iran feels it has nothing to lose.

I suggest you read the comments section to get a realistic picture of what US public is thinking - that's why I've given the URL.

Now, a brief if boring discussion of the 3 points.

(a) Winning. Obviously Iran is losing, but then that OUR western way of thinking. If your objective is regime survival no matter what the cost to the people, the situation is the regime is still surviving. Maybe it wont in the long run, but it is surviving NOW.
(b) I'll talk about Iran's resources in a later post. In the meantime, the real danger to the US presidency is that Americans hate to lose, even if they're against the war (mostly). The elections have no bearing on Mr. Trump, who is term-limited and doesnt care what 2028 brings. As for 2026, you may not agree, but I think Mr. Trump ultimately cares about the GOP. In any case, the Democrats are making total fools of themselves
and may well likely lose in 2028. In 2026 the GOP may lose the House. No big deal. Mr. Trump does not care that much about the GOP and in any case, its quite normal for the ruling party to lose seats in the House in mid-terms. Ultimately, Mr. Trump does not care about Congress. Another story.
(c) US since Monday has been striking Iran albeit in a limited way. Now, the very little we know about the strikes is they seem to be clearing the littoral so that Hormuz reopens. This is my reasoned guess. If Hormuz reopens, then Iran Govt has nothing to lose. It loses in the long run, but please understand that every day they survive is a victory in the regime's eyes. Its looking at TODAY, not the long run. If I were the regime, I'd think this is a logical strategy.

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

Hormuz 4 ships transited, 412K DWT, Brent $92. Trust at your own risk.
xxxxx
One US general says Mr. Trump gotten into Iranian heads. How do you know, Sir? And why inflict more bafflement on my poor Prez's already confused head?

xxxxxx

Said Iran is ready to sign deal; Trump thinking/

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

https://t.co/jyq1qkoaM1

Sigh. Another well-written article that is essentially hot engine exhaust.

The authors allow F-35 is a marvel, but say it wont do in a China War. Why? Because war games show the greatest losses will be on the ground. Why? Because, they say, F-35 has a big logistic foot print vulnerable to Chinese missiles.

Gee golly galoshes. Who'd have thunk that.

Name one aircraft that doesnt have a big logistic foot print?

Do our authors realise the US has a "secret" weapon called anti air/anti missile defenses? In the old days it was called flak and SAMs.

They dismiss dispersal because they say that complicates logistics. They suggest UAV fighters. Wow. Why didnt the US think of that? Instead the US is stoopidly going heck for leather on - you guessed it - drone fighters to accompany manned fighters.

Dispersal does not mean one fighter every square kilometer. It means (a) hardening (b) dispersal so that a surface to surface missile does not get more than one aircraft - if it gets past defenses, passive and active. Besides, tactical dispersal is a simpler matter than strategic dispersal. Your plane tactically disperses for say 12 hours, then returns to a central well-defended point for maintenance.

Admitedly the plane is not built for dispersal like say the A-10. But the US is working on this. Admitedly the hardened shelter program is not as advanced as it should be. The US is working on that keeping an eye out for advances in quality/ quantity of adversary missiles.

You knew, of course, that the US "hides" its fleet warship by EM/ECM. But surely you know this applies also to tanks and aircraft.

The authors are correctly concerned about the low 50% availability of the F-35. I dont know if that can be improved much, the F-35 is an incredibly complex plane. But then with development of small form factor missiles, the ability to control missiles from other fighters, and UAV fighters, an F-35 sortie equates to 2 -4 or more "normal" sorties.

Listen, the action-reaction cycles between weapons and their counters is constant. Its inevitable one or the other has the advantage. But the US tries to stay a step ahead of everyone else if not more. What else do you want to do.

These alarmist articles do serve a good purpose. They build support for bigger defense budgets. Of course that has its own problems. But in the US system of government, you have to be single minded, not holistic. Maybe the US one day will develop a Swiss
knife weapon that will do everthing and be cheap as a can of Coca Cola. One can always dream.

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

Hormuz 4 ships, 400000 DWT. Brent $94

Dakar Israeli subs (first commission in 2031) SLBM load unknown, estimate 4-8 based of missile diameter, I guessed 6, but more likely its 4 or 8 depending on missile diameter, Popeye 1500 km tube launched presume N-tipped. Built by ThysenKrupp (German) with German subsidy. Now why would they need a bigger missile? MIRV? Over $1.25 billion each.

RFOK Batch II Aegis DDG has 16 ship to surface launchers; first of 3 comissioned. Batch 1: 3 in service, 8 ship to surface missiles.

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

https://t.co/3WCEDv4KMv

ROK to build N-submarines (first 1n 10 years to commission. US boasts some will be built in US. America are you mad? You cant get an FFG built, what makes you think you can turn out SSNs for ROK?

ROK Aegis destroyer (class of 3) will have launchers (4 missiles each) for 800-km to 1000-km sea to surface missiles with 3 ton warheads.

Please also see article Dakar SLBM Israel, They appear to have a sail 2X as long as normal. IMHO it can carry 6 N-warhead missiles. This is just my guess. https://t.co/KnCf72UjRU

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

Okay. Monday and Tueday US delivered love taps to Southern Iran, hitting missile sites and mining small boats. Great.

Then the US, like a foolish old drunken man, backpedals all over by saying these were defensive attacks and as far as it is concerned, the ceasefire is still in place.

Why does the US need to diminish its already tattered image and grovel before 4th rate Iran? They broke the ceasefire by continuing the mine Hormuz. What defensive action? Have some dignity and do what you have to to win.

xxxxx
When I say US has lost the war, its not rhetoric. It really has lost. Hormuz is not open, N-bomb has been set back IMHO by 10 years, which will pass like a flash.
And we the great and mighty US are "negotitating" with a regime that will say anything to ease US restrictions but still continue supporting Hamas, Houthis, Hezbollah. So Israel is safe for IMHO 5 years, while Iran rebuilds its missile force with Pakistan, DPRK, PRC and Russian help.

This a victory? Sure, just like Vietnam was a victory (not!).

xxxxxx

Now some GOP is worried Mr. Trump will give things away in his rush to declare victory. These are the same craven slaves who enabled him in the first place. And the Democrats: my friends, there isnt a garbage bin big enough hold you poopies. Just because you hate
Mr. Trump you give cant him any support even when national security is involved? Gahhh.

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

https://t.co/kuI5Ah2qMd

This explains why Siberia to Chia is not being built. Together with other sources I gather:

1. Russia knows it has to give a deep discount on LNG (and oil) to China since Russia cannot sell at market price due to Western embargoes over Ukraine.

2. China knows it has Russia over a barrel (so as to speak, ha ha) and is pushing for a low price that Russia is not willing to accept.

3. China is not into long term agreements and prefers the spot market.

4. The above analysis says that China is being over sensitive about fears of overreliance on any one source, but that of course IMHO is for China to decide.

Its marvelous the answers to how many questions can be found on the web. Now if someone paid me for my time, I could spend 3x the time on research. As it is I lose 2 hours oversleeping because of being down at my wife's situation, 2 hours talking and emailing her because she isnt here and flees very isolated/ at least 2 hours on trying to figure out her legal sityation, and 2 hours worrying about money or doing without money (its exhausting being poor); so I end up an effective 4 hrs/day 7 days a week instead of my usual 12. By the way. I dont drink, smoke, socialize, watch TV or anything. I wear 20-30 years clothes (which for some reason sends my family crazy and eat acsetically, India style.

The search for knowledge is a wonderful thing, but I again remind young ones, secure a living first. One could live poor in India (not now) in the 1970s and 1980s (if you can stand wives walking out on you, which is very upsetting and not being able to send $25 on your grandkids' birthday (forget Christmas).

Some people work hard to become idiots, some try hard all their lives but dont succeed, a very few are born and stay idiots). I'm in the last category. We few, we lucky few...and thank goodness because the world has an ever-reducing need for idiots or tolerance for them.