traders resilience is truly tested once they go through stressful periods IRL
execution is immediately endangered
market will ruthlessly test your ability to withstand the external pressure
maintaining composure and staying unphased is proof you're beating the game
crypto is dead.
the same way it was dead in 2018,
and the same way it died in 2022.
kinda like how in 2023 everyone gave up on crypto because it got outperformed by Uranium,
or in 2024 as $BTC went sideways/down for 8 months & alts went -90% lower as stocks made ATHs every other day,
and just like 2025 when that exact same thing happened, leading into today.
crypto is dead again,
but it always comes back with a vengeance.
Altseason is a mind virus for newbies.
The basic assumption is: Bitcoin runs, then consolidates; the liquidity that accumulated in BTC rotates downward. If you want to be specific, you could even say first into majors, then through mid-caps, and eventually into the long tail of small-caps and absolute shitters. It's a sequential, almost mechanical picture of capital flowing through the market. Holding your favorite shitters through this period is, in effect, holding a lottery ticket on a hypothesized regime change.
Strip the narrative away, and what people actually *want* but never really articulate is: exposure to trending altcoins. Trend is the actual unit of return. If you want exposure to trending altcoins, the right object of analysis is trend itself. Concretely: identify what is likely to trend in the near future based on observable signals rather than on a thesis about a project's fundamental future.
TL;DR: Fuck altseason. Be in trend when it's present and out of it when it isn't, and size accordingly.
Michael Burry is like that one crazy uncle that was right about a conspiracy theory once and has spent everyday since then trying to convince you the earth is flat
Day 15 - No caffeine. No social media on my phone. (First time back on x in a while.) No sugar. Daily workouts.
I’ve finally unplugged myself from the matrix and will keep all social media deleted off my phone for the indefinite future.
Insane how 2 weeks can reset your dopamine pathways.
Indescribable feeling really. Brain feels light and free. You just lock in on your life and forget about the constant, never ending doom and gloom.
Highly recommend if you’ve been considering doing something similar.
Used to average 13-15 hours of screen time.
sunk-cost fallacy.
from my personal experience, and anecdotally, our brains are hardwired to hold onto losers and fade outperformers
but you can always justify forcing that rewiring in your brain from a logical standpoint: you should WANT to get out of underperforming assets and into appreciating assets, because others should want to do the same.
so it's not difficult to see how the concept of 'relative strength' becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
this has been deemed 'winning philosophy' since the beginning of markets; there's no reason for that to suddenly change.
Crypto sucks at the moment and it will take awhile to flush out the anger and apathy.
Beyond a potential HL s3, and INK points, there just isn't much here. Crypto companies are far too stringent on hiring and the space has become a circle jerk of nepotism and "who you know" which is just a major turn off for anyone looking to enter, get their foot in the door, and work in the space. (looking at you @coinbase@krakenfx)
Simply untenable to continue participating in this space until some shit changes. My focus will be AI and perhaps, league of legends.
It's been a fun 8 years, but there just isn't shit here anymore beyond the 2 things mentioned prior. No point in wasting anymore time hoping something changes.
I know traders worth millions, that spend 12+ hours a day staring at screens
and if you ask them why they started trading, they'll tell you something along the lines of: "to escape the 9-5 matrix and not be a wageslave"
they don't even realize they've substituted a clock-in sheet for a PC, and now work 80+ hours a week
it's ironic:
in order to be good enough to generate millions, you have to become obsessed with trading
and once you become obsessed, the border between addiction is incredibly thin
so even after many achieve their goals, they find new ones to continue feeding into that addiction.
what a terrible way to live.
in theory, as people digest the bullishness in equities and get more comfortable, they should want to divert to higher-beta for more aggressive plays
crypto is perfectly poised to see some kind of rotation sooner or later
if we don’t, I really don’t know what to say…
This should hopefully help you see quickly why though I see why people want to be a patient bear for a flip of the range highs mid 75k and acceptance.
I wasn't looking it at two points of rejection, dataset of (2), but a set of 4.
At the previous one, just the rejection and no support.
On this one, a flip of the previous, now testing the highs.
So simply put, I said, its a choice of taking big stress and risk buying above 75.5k, but close invalidation here near 69/70k, and means when 75.5k comes I can completely chill risking nothing more than the markets money if it worked out on my chess map.
And I guess it did. Stocks im in up (selective charts), crypto im in up, fairly decent amount from entry. (for current markets).
Things that ran away from me, I have no intention of chasing.
I put in the grit when others were sleeping, now I relax as I get to watch others dilly dally in the middle.
If it tops at the redzone, I likely leave with OK profit. But lets assume zero and ignore some alt trades.
That would be same performance as someone that remained bearish up to this point. (assuming no other trades than BTC).
If it continues higher to those next levels, then I am only up a headstart of lets say 5%.
So you see, its not about a mere 5% if a trend does much more than that and other opportunities become possible.
Its actually more about making life easier for yourself.
For me, occasionally, I just know while x looks bearish, a persistent 3D green, my instinct from experience, reactions to news etc. Kind of tell me, perhaps start looking for an early plan, which connects to a larger plan.
There is risk both ways, could take a hit for nothing early and be like, duh why did I even try that, was so obviously cooked in hindsight. You get it.
All of that is to say, what seems like a flex a lot of the time isn't really one in my eyes. Its just agout making life easier/more compatible with your emotions and mindset so the future you isn't put in certain seats.
Theres people who are absolutely fine with that chair, thats a flex in itself and kudos to them.
For me though, I often do well when I find myself in that chair, but I prefer to avoid if and only if I find a plan that makes sense and ticks all my boxes. (not often).
I thought as I do mostly nowaways stripping more of the chart way to show only a basic idea would get this one across.
You can see it as 2 data points or 4.
I chose 4, which gave me a granular look. (and as usual these days we skip the 3D green and other shit i use to even decide if I ignore these cartoon squiggles or not)
Hopefully speaking less sp3y3dernese, and more chinese where u hopefully have a better chance at making some sense out of it.