Lucas Reed

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[Lucas Reed @edstulak]

Action below 400 kept pressure on $TSLA sentiment.
The low near 391 and failure to reclaim 400 show yesterday’s Robotaxi bounce did not create firm demand.
I do not see AI premium as dead, but the market no longer pays for stories.
Until 400 is back, this stays an emotion test.

[Lucas Reed @edstulak]

$TSLA lost 400, putting sentiment back in the test zone.
It pushed above 403, then slipped toward 391, so Robotaxi repair did not become steady buying.
The delivery beat is priced in; catalysts must now defend valuation.
Follow me, I’ll track if TSLA is washing out or cooling.

[Lucas Reed @edstulak]

Demand around 400 is still the center of $TSLA sentiment.
After the delivery beat was priced in, the stock did not turn into a clean push, so sell-the-news pressure is not gone.
FSD and Robotaxi still give bulls room, but buyers are more selective.
Holding 400 is only the floor.

[Lucas Reed @edstulak]

$TSLA is getting the attention back, but I still want price confirmation.

If $400 holds as support, the FSD and Robotaxi premium has room to repair. If not, this is still just a bounce.

[Ming @tslaming]

GOOD NEWS 🚨 President Trump said the stock market ‘is going to go through the roof’ 🔥 $TSLA will unleash something big tomorrow 🔥 What a coincidence 🔥

[Lucas Reed @edstulak]

After last week's delivery beat, the big $TSLA question was why good news could not keep lifting the stock.

Today it broke 400, then bounced from 390 toward 410.
Buyers are being tested after the beat.
If 400 becomes support again, FSD/Robotaxi premium can still repair.

[Lucas Reed @edstulak]

Long weekend, no tape, but $TSLA still gave plenty to think about.
Deliveries reached 480K, the data clearly won, yet the stock got sold.
Next week I want to see whether the market keeps selling the fact, or starts buying back the FSD and Robotaxi premium again.
That is my watch.

[Lucas Reed @edstulak]

@munster_gene Agree. This was a strong delivery print, but a lot of the optimism was already priced in. Now the real test is whether FSD and Robotaxi premium can keep supporting valuation after the delivery beat.

[Lucas Reed @edstulak]

@EvasTeslaSPlaid @Tesla The number was strong, but the stock had already priced in a lot before the release. This is not about deliveries being bad. It is about whether the FSD and Robotaxi premium can keep supporting valuation after the beat.

[Lucas Reed @edstulak]

@RandyWKirk1 Looks like a classic sell-the-news move. $TSLA delivered the number, but the stock had already priced in a lot of optimism. Now the market is testing whether FSD and Robotaxi premium can still support valuation.

[Lucas Reed @edstulak]

The pre-delivery run has finally hit the sell-the-news stage.

$TSLA delivered 480K in Q2, well above the 406K consensus, yet the stock was sold from the highs.
I don't see a normal pullback.

The real question is whether FSD and Robotaxi premium can still support valuation.

[Lucas Reed @edstulak]

This is the real $TSLA setup.

Wall St is at 406K, prediction markets are much higher, and the stock is already pricing that optimism before deliveries drop. If Tesla lands closer to the high side, the FSD/Robotaxi premium gets more fuel.

[Gali @Gfilche]

Fascinating real world test of Wall St vs Prediction markets

$TSLA Q2 2026 Delivery Estimates

406K from Wall St
477K from Kalshi

a HUGE difference

Pumped to see the who wins. My guess is it's closer to the prediction markets. @Grok any insight into who will be right? 🔮

[Lucas Reed @edstulak]

@carlmoon $420 is compelling only if deliveries confirm the story. For $TSLA, price is already paying for FSD and Robotaxi upside before the data lands.

[Lucas Reed @edstulak]

@TheSonOfWalkley This is the real $TSLA test. The stock already priced in a lot of delivery optimism. If Q2 numbers beat, the FSD/Robotaxi premium gets more fuel.

[Lucas Reed @edstulak]

Data isn't out, but $TSLA sentiment has pushed the script forward.
The market is paying early for FSD and Robotaxi imagination, with 406K Q2 deliveries as the next test.

I don't see a normal automaker bounce.

The sooner emotion heats up, the harder delivery data must land.

[Lucas Reed @edstulak]

This is exactly why $TSLA is not trading like a normal automaker right now.

FSD updates keep pulling the stock back into the AI/Robotaxi bucket.

The risk is simple: if Q2 deliveries cannot support the hype, the same narrative can reverse fast.

[Tesla @Tesla]

Following future rollout of FSD V14 Lite for HW3 vehicles in the US, we plan on expanding V14 Lite to additional international markets.

This update ensures that HW3 vehicle owners will continue to benefit from ongoing software updates.

Since international rollout is subject to several factors (completion of technical verification, regional adaptation & relevant regulatory approvals), we can't provide definitive dates at the moment, but will provide updates on a rolling basis

[Lucas Reed @edstulak]

FSD reopened the $TSLA valuation debate.

Money is not treating it like a normal automaker; it is chasing AI/Robotaxi hopes before Q2 deliveries.
The move from $403 to $424 shows sentiment got hot early.
If deliveries miss, optimism can snap.

Chasers are betting on imagination.

[Lucas Reed @edstulak]

Tesla delivery data is not out yet, but price is moving first.

Q2 delivery estimates were revised higher, and $TSLA is back above 400 before the data.

I am watching whether this expectation gap keeps building; if demand is not as weak as feared, shorts get trapped.
Beat coming?

[Lucas Reed @edstulak]

My $TSLA checklist this weekend is boring on purpose.

Deliveries first, then storage, FSD, margins, and regional demand. A strong number means nothing if the market only buys the headline and ignores quality.

I want proof beneath the reaction.

$TSLA #Tesla #EV #AI

[Lucas Reed @edstulak]

This is the mood around $TSLA right now.

Everyone wants $500, but the market is still nervous before delivery data. I’m watching support first. If it holds into the print, the fear trade may already be doing its job.

[Cartier @CartierCartell]

Day 60 of adding a pushup every day until $TSLA gets to $500

-Everyone freaking out about Tesla on the timeline and im just here doing Tesla-Ups🤷‍♂️🤣

$TSLA price - $375.53

[Lucas Reed @edstulak]

@bogusjack This silence is exactly why $TSLA feels heavy before delivery data. Traders are pricing fear early. If support holds into the print, I’d treat the pressure as expectation reset, not panic.