My concern about Trump’s (apparent) willingness to escalate here is what the most likely escalation pathway is.
While many point to the bombing that has taken place over the past week, the movement of aircraft and assets into the region, and clear choreographing of what could be a limited boots on the ground operation… that’s NOT what is most likely.
The most likely option is that President Trump moves forward with, at least, Bridge and Power Plants Day.
This isn’t about “reopening the Strait of Hormuz”, this is about terrorizing the Iranian civilians. Plain and simple.
My concern however, is that he won’t stop here. Many of the most vicious Iran Hawks, the very same people that have overwhelmingly driven our Iran strategy thus far, are pushing for Trump to go much further.
They’re calling for Trump to strike water storage facilities. Wheat storage. To bomb vital economic infrastructure in Iran that would devastate the civilian population. To force inflation to skyrocket, the Rial to collapse, unemployment to wreak havoc.
My concern is not (necessarily) that Trump will put 50,000 boots on the ground to seize Qeshm and Larak.
My concern is he will systematically target and destroy large swaths of civilian and economic infrastructure to terrorize the civilians of Iran. To create a TRUE economic crisis. A humanitarian emergency.
And of course, Iran will retaliate in an even more devastating way… I’m just not sold that Trump cares about that anymore.
PLEASE, I never ask anything, but if you’ve made it this far, PLEASE share the post. Like it. Bookmark it. Comment on it.
The stakes are so high right now, and we need to be working TOGETHER to do everything we can to prevent catastrophe. We need to fight back how we can.
In many areas today, childless women are out-earning their male counterparts. In this New York Magazine piece, rather than having empathy to address the issues why so many young men are struggling today, they highlight women who are experiencing the flip in gender norms and are bitter. Women are the victims, always. “If I wanted to finance a human being, I'd have a kid." says Naomi.
Society has demanded gender equality for decades. We’ve demanded men step aside for women. And now that we’re seeing the results of that, many women aren’t happy, and it’s all men’s fault.
Enough with the shaming and blaming and let’s focus on supporting our boys and men!
Unfortunately, the House just voted to merge the most secretive & sensitive elements of our defense & intelligence apparatus with a foreign government.
This bill still has to clear the Senate.
Call your senators & representatives and tell them to not support the NDAA until the merger w/ Israel (Section 219) is removed.
Senate switchboard: (202) 224-3121
Me encantaría transmitir a mis alumnos que la incomodidad de no entender no es incapacidad, sino su cerebro chocando con algo nuevo y reestructurándose. Ojalá pudiera contagiarles esa paciencia, pero no lo ven. Les cuesta muchísimo situarse en esa perspectiva.
We honor our fallen by ending this war & stopping any more of our young men & women from being killed.
We’ve done our retaliation strikes, now it’s time to leave.
This war shouldn’t have started, it will get worse if we attempt to “finish it” any other way than leaving now.
We need to end the war now.
Get our troops out of the region, restrain Israel, and focus on economic negotiations to open the SOH—and now the Bab Al Mandeb—or we will face a major energy crisis.
Keep in mind that we could not militarily defeat the Houthis in 2025. We know we can’t militarily defeat Iran now.
We will certainly not be able to defeat both of them simultaneously.
The reality is that we will end up cutting deals at some point. We always do—remember how we exited Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria.
At this point, we know how this plays out. Let’s skip the decades of carnage & cut the deals now.
Tune out the neocons & the Israeli lobby’s tired talking points about WMD—that was bait to get us into this mess. It worked, and look where we’re at: disastrous quagmire, no military solution, our troops in harm’s way all across the region.
Iran currently controls two key energy chokepoints—SOH & BAM. We are better off accepting this and adapting strategically than we are fighting it and losing more. Pulling our troops out tips the scales of leverage in our favor.
Withdraw and reengage diplomatically to resolve the issue in the region that directly impacts Americans: restoring the flow of oil.
President Trump can still declare victory and restore trust with the American people if he has the courage to leave now, before a mass casualty event happens or an economic crisis hits.
That’s why now is the best time to leave & quietly negotiate.
If Americans are killed, we hit back, it’s our doctrine & likely already underway, so not worth arguing about. What comes next is the issue.
We should remove our troops/bases to deprive Iran of targets, deescalate the war & transition to economic negotiations to open the SOH.
After these strikes we need to leave — we hit back now it’s time to exit.
Remove our troops/bases from the region to deprive Iran of targets, deescalate the war & transition to economic negotiations to open the SOH.
Break the escalation cycle.
In any chaotic situation, the side that restores order wins.
Ending the escalation cycle w/Iran and restoring the free flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz must be our top priority—not only for the sake of our economy, but for America’s standing as a global superpower.
There is no military solution to this conflict. The air campaigns are not working & a ground campaign would be a strategic disaster, producing heavy American casualties while further destabilizing the region.
Continued escalation only worsens the damage to the U.S., our partners, and the global economy.
Killing the Ayatollah has backfired: instead of fracturing the regime, it’s unified Iranians—including many who previously opposed the IRGC & the government— to now rally around the flag and the IRGC.
After months of bloodshed, basic human nature combined with nationalism & Shia martyrdom culture dictate that meaningful concessions from the Iranians via diplomacy are highly unlikely while U.S. forces remain within striking distance.
We restore order by ending the conflict on our terms: deprive Iran of military targets to strike by removing our troops, bases, & naval forces from the area.
Our bases in the region are liabilities & relics of the past—abandoning them is not retreat, it’s strategic adaptation to modern warfare.
This move removes Iran’s primary justification for disrupting shipping in the SOH and for attacking its neighbors. We can then offer the carrot: sanctions relief in exchange for freedom of navigation in the SOH.
The war has changed the region. Iran has emerged as a major regional power—the sooner we recognize this reality and adjust our posture accordingly, the stronger our position will be.
A history lesson about Las Malvinas for all the trolls:
Britain first occupied the islands in 1765 but were kicked out by the Spanish a few years later.
Then in 1833 it took the islands by military force from Argentina which had inherited Spain’s claim after independence a few decades earlier and had established authority on the islands.
Given their geographical proximity to Argentina this was not surprising.
How do you think Britain would feel if a foreign nation 8,000 miles away took the Isle of Wight by military force and established settlers on it?
Britain argues that the settlers it established on Las Malvinas want to stay British. But frankly why should their opinion count when they are living on occupied land?
The honourable thing to do would be to just give the islands back to the Argentinians. But I really can't remember the last time Britain did the honourable thing.
La élite: Una educación basada en el saber duro, el rigor, los clásicos y la alta ciencia. El dominio de la estructura.
Los vulnerables: educación basada en "competencias", resiliencia, gestión emocional y adaptabilidad.
Los estadios que maneja EEUU tienen que pasarlos en loop todo el día por cadena nacional para los cirujas que admiran las remodelaciones de la poronga del Monumental, la Bombonera, la chotada del de Independiente, el Inodoro de Racing, la prefabricada de San Loreno, la villa de 4 paredes que inauguró Estudiantes y así todo el país.
Cómo doma el imperio, son los reyes mundiales del show.
🚨Hermano @rlopezaliaga1
¡Usted es un gran patriota y un verdadero líder! Los peruanos de bien estamos con usted al 100%. Como líder de Renovación Popular y según los estatutos del partido, tiene voz y voto. Por eso apoyamos que el cargo de senador pase al accesitario Absalón Vásquez, un gran hombre q sabe mucho de cosecha de agua. Ingeniero López Aliaga, Lima lo espera. Tiene que terminar lo que tan bien empezó. Más obras, más infraestructura, más obras sociales y seguir modernizando nuestra ciudad. Los patriotas de bien ya estamos listos para salir a la calle a hacer campaña con todo para que vuelva a ser Teniente Alcalde de Lima. ¡Vamos por una Lima más grande, segura y moderna! ¡Renovación Popular sigue de pie!
¡Lima te necesita de nuevo, ingeniero!¡Fuerza hermano! 🫵✍️