Elon Musk explains why the Sun is humanity's ultimate energy source:
"The vast majority of Earth's energy already comes from the Sun. Without it, Earth would be a frozen ice ball
A roughly 100-mile by 100-mile area of solar panels....about a corner of Arizona, could generate enough electricity to power the entire United States"
The challenge isn't whether enough solar energy exists
It's building the infrastructure to capture, store, and distribute it efficiently
The mega bull case for AI infrastructure would be *if* market share shifted away from certain frontier labs with 90%+ inference margins toward cheaper models, whether open-source or closed.
It would increase the ROI on AI spend for end customers by increasing intelligence per dollar, which would drive incremental token demand. Margin dollars would effectively get redistributed from the frontier labs to AI infrastructure providers. The infra winners would be those with the lowest per token cost and the winners at the model layer would be those with the highest token efficiency.
There are many reasons Jensen is so focused on open source, but this is likely the most important one as I think he is probably less worried about a monopsony these days. Lower margin % at the model layer = more margin $ at the infra layer all else equal.
With SpaceX and Meta being vertically integrated and possessing the #3 and #4 models respectively it is more possible than ever. Note that Grok 4.5 is ahead of Fable for some useful tasks at a much lower cost, so ranking them #3 is conservative.
This is not happening yet. Cheap, mostly open source tokens are likely the majority of volume today but the majority of economic value is still accruing to the most intelligent models. Might change though.
We will see.
For the first time, Starship will carry 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites to space
Starlink V3 is designed to massively expand the network’s capacity and increase user speeds
After deployment, the test satellites will:
• Extend their solar arrays and antennas
• Attempt to connect with ground stations in South Africa
• Establish links with the wider Starlink constellation using high-capacity lasers
The satellites will follow the same suborbital trajectory as Starship, meaning they will not remain in orbit and are expected to reenter the atmosphere later in the mission
But the most interesting part is how Starlink will help inspect Starship
Six of the satellites have been modified with cameras designed to scan Starship’s heat shield and transmit the imagery back to SpaceX operators
Several heat-shield tiles have even been painted white to simulate missing tiles and provide clear imaging targets
The goal is to continue testing methods of analyzing Starship’s heat shield readiness for return to launch site on future missions
Starship launches Starlink
Starlink helps inspect Starship
The entire SpaceX ecosystem is starting to compound on itself
@beffjezos I say both energy and mass, as they are separate scarcities for practical purposes, despite being technically “equivalent”, as described by Einstein’s famous equation.
Our solar system has only a tiny percentage of non-solar atoms with which to build things.
I would like to offer a counterargument that LLMs (or maybe AIs) cannot jump.
Before AlphaGo, the AI field had the same argument for Go: there are 2.08 × 10^170 possibilities, nothing fits in the computer, and there is no way AI could possibly predict the outcome of the next 50-60 moves.
It turned out most moves do not lead to a win. Combined with clever use of Monte Carlo Tree Search, the sampling becomes quite manageable. The same can be said for physics, where equations are just another form of compression.
Einstein did not start with relativity. That was not his first paper. He spent years understanding the properties of light before concluding that the speed of light is constant across the universe, which unlocked his discovery of relativity. During his thought process, he also interacted with other physicists (e.g., sub-agents) to enrich his thinking.
Currently we have not run an agent for years of compute. The sessions are often fragmented and disoriented, so every new session is almost a fragmented memory of the past, but it may not be for long.