Stock picker | Mostly options plays | Blend of technicals + fundamentals | Small account focus | Posts are not investment advice | My link for TradingView:
my portfolio was down $6K at the worst of it today
my friend sent a screenshot of being down $900M
I want to be like him one day
it's a privilege to be down so much
😂
@EliteOptions2 Hahaha funny. Also, love the new profile pic! Have been following you for a while - I value your insights and analyses highly. Love the motivational posts, uplifting yet modest, and classy. Thank you for all that you do.🙏
Sentiment is wild heading into this week.
It seems we’re all expecting a Santa Rally that’ll knock everyone’s socks off, and a possible front run of the January effect.
The thinking is that we’re below the trend lines and need to revert back to the mean.
If you look at chip stocks ($AMD, $NVDA, $SMH), this is clear. Also $IWM, $DIA. Especially on smaller time frames.
I don’t think we can be actually bearish, not yet. But I do see more downside to start the week.
It’s been 16 days since $SPX has touched the 20 SMA, and I think we are due. Let’s see SPX hit the 1.272 retracement of the Dec 6 high to Dec 11 low — @ 6011 — or the 1.414 @ 6001.
Conveniently round numbers!
$VIX: $VXV exploded all the way to 1.14, the same level it reached in early August when VIX hit 65. Who could've seen it coming? It hasn't traded above 1.14 since 2020, so today's stock market decline has the word BOTTOM written all over it.
Sentiment is wild heading into this week.
It seems we’re all expecting a Santa Rally that’ll knock everyone’s socks off, and a possible front run of the January effect.
The thinking is that we’re below the trend lines and need to revert back to the mean.
If you look at chip stocks ($AMD, $NVDA, $SMH), this is clear. Also $IWM, $DIA. Especially on smaller time frames.
I don’t think we can be actually bearish, not yet. But I do see more downside to start the week.
It’s been 16 days since $SPX has touched the 20 SMA, and I think we are due. Let’s see SPX hit the 1.272 retracement of the Dec 6 high to Dec 11 low — @ 6011 — or the 1.414 @ 6001.
Conveniently round numbers!
Thoughts on the market today Dec 13
$AVGO records an earnings beat and announces it is working with three cloud customers to develop custom AI chips. On this news, the stock is up 25% on the day, its single largest gain in history, and hits $1T in market cap. Phew!
Interestingly, some chip stocks like $MRVL (+11%), $TSM, and $ARM were up in sympathy with $AVGO, however the leaders $NVDA (slightly red) and $AMD (-4%) continued to lag. Could be yet another final bit of liquidity-grab before the takeoff.
Based on cyclicals (see @CyclesFan’s work), $SPX may still spike down to 6000 Monday. Regardless, with FOMC rate decision and quad witching, we could be in for another wild week before Christmas.