egoc2

Football mad, F1 obsessed, Irish Motorcycle Road Racing nut. @manutd Fan, NFL @saints 🇮🇪🇮🇪☘️🇮🇪🇮🇪

[egoc2 @egoc2]

@Plettigoal @Sky_Marlon89 @SkySportDE @MO_Gorman88

[Celtic Football Club @CelticFC]

90+9’ - KELECHIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!

🟦2️⃣-3️⃣🟩

#MOTCEL | #CelticFC🍀

[Celtic Football Club @CelticFC]

✅

#MOTCEL | #CelticFC🍀

[egoc2 @egoc2]

@HoganNFL @LiveDrive Just once is fine 👍

[egoc2 @egoc2]

@HoganNFL @LiveDrive Clunky to add N7 before outbound. Come on now. May not be clear to some, who read it at a glance.

[Manchester United @ManUtd]

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 MAN ✈️ DUB 🇮🇪

We'll face Leeds at Dublin's Croke Park as part of #MUTOUR26, presented by @Snapdragon 🤝

Find out when you can get tickets, plus further info on this summer's fixtures ➡️ https://t.co/N0COH32uUH

[⚡ @UTDCJ_]

bryan mbeumo 36:31
patrick dorgu 49:59
matheus cunha 86:11

[egoc2 @egoc2]

@IrishBearsShow A loooong Amorim segment 😅. Love him though.

[egoc2 @egoc2]

@heavensonfireox 🤣

[egoc2 @egoc2]

@heavensonfireox

[egoc2 @egoc2]

@ArndTheGrnds Dalot nowhere as usual. Onana weak hand as always. Looked like scoring from the get go.

[The Swedish Rumble 🔰 @SwedishRumble]

I have been asked several times if Man United can afford to sign Carlos Baleba -- so what is the answer?
Hook me up to a lie-detector, no spin, completely honest answer that is absolutly in line with my conviction -- is that Man United cannot afford to NOT sign Carlos Baleba this summer. Or in other words, if the double negatives are confusing, Baleba should 100% be signed this summer from a financial POV.

Here is why:
🔺First of all -- we must determine what the cost is for signing Baleba this season instead of next season?
⚽️We would directly or indirectly pay interest on the transfer fee of 4.46 percent (per q3). If the fee is £80m + £15m in addons, the interest on paying this fee 1 year in advance would be £3.6m.
⚽️We would pay his wages one additional year, the cost will be app. £7.5m (I am counting high for the sake of caution).
Total Cost for signing him one year in advance: £11.1m
🔺Second of all, do we save any money or increase income if we sign him this summer as opposed to next summer? Lets look at some factors.

Transfer fees are subject to inflation. On avg., transfer fees increase with 14% per season in the Premier League since 92/93. The last 10 years, the avg. yearly increase is 8%. This is based on the avg. fee paid for the 25 biggest signings by PL clubs each season. Baleba's transfer fee today vs. next season could go up or down based on how he performs, whether he stays healthy, general economic factors -- etc etc etc. But everything else equal -- the expectations must be that Baleba's transfer fee will increase with 8%.

That is £6m we would save on getting him a year early.

🔺All clubs would from a sporting POV like to get transfers done before preseason starts. Undoubtedly. Yet:
⚽️15-20% of transfers are made in June
⚽️40-45% of transfers are made in July
⚽️40-45% of transfers are made in August
The reason for at least 40% of the transfers being made long after preseason started -- and a big portion of those 40% being made after the season started -- is that prices in general come down the close to deadline day that you come. If you want someone in June -- you simply must pay more than if you are prepared to wait until 30 August.

We must improve our CM next season if we are to be able to play in Europe. Casemiro will be gone. We will want to get the CM through the door early. So if the options are to either sign Baleba in the coming 2-3 weeks or before we fly out for the pre-season tour in 2026 -- the expectation must be that it will be more expensive to get something done early 2026.

I could easily see that it would be 5% more expensive, ie. £4m savings must be assumed.

🔺The avg. increased income from PL tv-money from climbing a spot in the PL table is worth £2.8m. It is of course 100% speculation -- but when you make a decision you must base it on whatever information you have, and if the information is uncertain, the probability of an outcome must be taken into account. I would say that it must be assumed to be very likely that we at least could climb 2 spots in the table if we sign Baleba. It could be zero if he gets hurt or it could be 10 spots if like Casemiro, Mainoo and Ugarte are injured most of the season. But 2 spots is a cautious and very likely outcome.

Increased income assumed: £5.6m

🔺The big kicker is of course the EL and the CL. If we make the EL due to signing Baleba, it is easily worth £50m and if we make the CL due to signing Baleba, its easily worth £100m.

🔺Even if it cannot be measured with any certainty -- we know for a fact that players playing for an unbalanced team that is not good enough to live up to expectations -- comes with a big risk of the player losing confidence, entering a negative spiral, and eventually becoming a failed player without any meaningful value on the market. I am not putting a figure on it, its too hard to estimate. But looking at potential increase in fees when we sell players forward and avoiding the need to replace players who were ruined from playing in a crappy environment -- I think the savings could be very significant.

🔺So how much money is the working hypothesis that MUFC would save on signing Baleba for 80m this summer compared to trying to sign him next summer?
I would have to break it down to the following potential alternative scenarios:
-Very negative outlook/close to worst case: 50m lost (i.e. would have have had to pay less or could go for someone else much better if we waited, he fails completely)
-Very conservative outlook: 15m won by signing him this season instead of next season
-Realistic outlook: 65m won by signing him this season instead of next season
-Positive outlook: 165m won by signing him this season instead of next season

I am a fairly experienced business lawyer and a partner at a lawfirm, and as such I have a lot of experience of 'being in the room' when big business decisions are made. If I was in the room for this decision -- I would be very firm in my advice to make this deal this summer as opposed to next summer if those were the alternatives. I would of course be swayed if industry people told me that it was a bad idea, like in this case, its much better to sign someone else. If the answer is -- to make this transfer we must loan more money and the Glazers won't approve that -- it is what it is. Nothing can be done about it. But I cannot see the argument for 'it is a bit too costly to make this transfer, we better wait'. Everything points to the opposite.

[Mukhtar @I_amMukhtar]

American millionaire, Asher Watkins, who was a big game hunter, got ambushed and gored to death by buffalo he was trying to kill.

The hunter became the hunted.

[egoc2 @egoc2]

@MrStephenHowson The drop off from starting 11 to the subs is substantial. Really poor.
Really impressed by Dorgu, Ugarte, De Ligt, Mainoo, Cunha looked tidy and Bruno of course. Pressing and team cohesion looked good.

No change; we need a striker!

[AS Roma English @ASRomaEN]

The first Irish player in our history ☘️🇮🇪

#ASRoma

[Manchester United @ManUtd]

Our first signing of the summer has been agreed 🇧🇷✍️

#MUFC

[BBC Sport @BBCSport]

For Xana ❤️

[David Ornstein @David_Ornstein]

🚨 Manchester United have now met terms of £62.5m release clause in Matheus Cunha contract at Wolverhampton Wanderers - so #WWFC have given #MUFC permission to conclude deal with 26yo Brazil int’l forward, conduct medical & complete transfer @TheAthleticFC https://t.co/LduUGuwZ4O