einarronci

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

The Green Shoots of Trump’s Hamiltonian Economy

Scott Bessent warned from the beginning that Donald Trump’s economic program would take time to appear in the data. An economy conditioned to reward consumption over production, public borrowing over capital formation, and foreign supply chains over domestic capacity cannot be remade in a quarter.
But policy works with a lag. That lag is beginning to close. We are starting to see green shoots.

At an economic turn, economists follow the household survey. It often shows first whether Americans are finding work, re-entering the labor force or retreating from it. September’s report was solid: household employment rose by 406,000, the labor force expanded by 485,000, and participation climbed to 61.8 percent, its highest level since May. Hours worked also increased.

These are not recessionary signs. They point to a broader expansion of productive capacity.

Wage growth was 3% year over year, while productivity has improved. Business-sector productivity rose 2.2 percent over the year through the second quarter. Manufacturing productivity advanced at a 2.4 percent annualized rate, while unit labor costs fell 0.3 percent. That is the combination policymakers should want: more output per worker, lower unit costs and room for real wages to rise without an inflationary spiral. Attention Phillip Curve lovers.

The Trump program is not simply tax-cut economics. It is a supply-side strategy with national purpose: lower regulatory barriers, expand domestic energy, reward capital formation, rebuild strategic supply chains and make building in America more attractive than offshoring.

The objective is not merely a better quarterly GDP print. It is more energy, housing, equipment, factories, data centers, critical technology and domestic industrial.

The growth in Manufacturing employment is real. The US economy is turning.

That change should eventually show up in corporate profits. My estimate is that S&P 500 operating earnings can reach $450 per share in 2027, as AI investment, reshoring, energy abundance and productivity lift the corporate earnings base.

The inflation evidence is equally important. The Dallas Fed’s trimmed-mean PCE rose at only a 1.92% annualized rate in August, consistent with underlying inflation near the Fed’s target. The danger is that Wall Street Keynesians, Bond Vigilantes and a Federal Reserve trained to see growth as excess demand misread a supply-side expansion as inflation and choke it off.

The green shoots are appearing. Trump’s wager is that America can grow not by borrowing and consuming more, but by producing more.

[Jenn Pellegrino 🇺🇸 @JennPellegrino]

Government jobs fell by 17,000 last month while private employers added 46,000.

Under Biden, the headline numbers were propped up by government hiring. That era is over. The bureaucracy is finally shrinking while the private sector grows.

That's what we voted for in 2024.

[einarronci @einarronci]

@nayibbukele Mi Nayib están resentidos !

[U.S. Department of Education @usedgov]

Literacy starts at home. 📚

[WWG1WGA🇺🇸♥️ @WWG1WGA_QQ]

🚨BREAKING: British veteran breaks down live on TV over state of the country:

"Rows and rows of white tombs for what? A country of today? No, I'm sorry. The sacrifice wasn't worth the result.

I fought for freedom, and it's darn-sight worse now than when I fought."

[einarronci @einarronci]

@grok @thereknBonlyone @TOSYNonX @BaT_MaN_23 Amazing

[𝐍𝐢𝐜𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐚𝐬 𝐖𝐨𝐥𝐟 @TheNicholasWolf]

“Luke 19:40 holds”

[Josh Peterson @jdpeterson]

Grok is not programmed with an ideology, but rather to be maximally truth seeking and to reason from first principles. This path has lead it to Christ.

[TONY™ @TONYxTWO]

Grok further proves Jesus is real and that He is King

Absolutely incredible 🙏🏼👏🏼

[Department Of Deportations @DoDeportations]

The stones are literally crying out

What more proof do you need?

[versuz @vintageversus]

@grok @oriontsx @BaT_MaN_23

[einarronci @einarronci]

@Michael53854672 @SCNerdAlert @frontierism This fool doesn’t know that facism is ultra radical left !

[einarronci @einarronci]

@inderXplorer @PeteHegseth Didn’t you read ? No Wimps!

[Steven Ertelt @StevenErtelt]

You never see Christians hijacking a plane and yelling "Praise Jesus" as they try to kill everyone on board.

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

Through the Looking Glass

Did anyone notice that Trimmed Mean PCE is 1.92%?

The Federal Reserve is living in Lewis Carroll’s looking-glass world: strong growth is treated as inflationary, supply expansion is treated as a threat, and tariffs and energy shocks are treated as reasons to punish the economy. The data say the opposite.

2Q GDP was revised to 2.2 % from 1.5 %, while real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 4.6 percent annualized. Consumer spending grew 3.8 percent, and business investment remains powerful.

The upward GDP revision also implies productivity is increasing: the economy is producing more output without a comparable increase in labor input. Yet August core PCE inflation came in below expectations. Core prices rose only 0.2 percent on the month, and the monthly numbers show a welcome decline. A one-off explosion in cellular-services prices is hardly cause for concern. Trimmed Mean PCE is 1.92%, below the Fed 2% target!

Growth is accelerating while inflation decelerates. That is not overheating. That is supply-side economics.

Tariffs do not cause inflation. They change relative prices. A tariff raises the price of an imported good, but the added cost comes out of purchasing power elsewhere. It is a tax on trade, not a monetary expansion.

The same is true of energy shocks: higher fuel prices are a tax on growth, reducing real household income and demand. There are no meaningful second- or third-round inflation effects here. Treating these one-time price adjustments as evidence of generalized inflation is a category error.

Meanwhile, AI capital spending, tax incentives, deregulation, and expanded energy production are creating a noninflationary growth cocktail. Data centers, chips, machinery, grids, and factories expand productive capacity. They raise output per worker rather than bidding up a fixed supply of goods. The Fed cannot lower the price of electricity, memory, or industrial capacity by suppressing housing, credit, and investment.

The Keynesian demand-side theory formalized in textbooks as the Hicks-Hansen model assumes growth must create inflation. Today’s numbers refute it. The Fed does not face a choice between growth and price stability. It faces a choice between recognizing a supply-side boom and strangling it. In the looking-glass economy, the greatest inflation risk is not too much growth. It is a central bank determined to punish it.

[Pete Hegseth @PeteHegseth]

Blessed is the nation whose God is the LORD. — Psalm 33:12

[Calvin @RealCalvin1]

When the IRGC endorses Democrats.

That’s when you know Democrats have lost the plot entirely.

[Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh]

🚨 AWESOME! SecWar Pete Hegseth just went full FAITH mode, creating the Office of Religious Affairs in the Pentagon composed of chaplains to give a DIRECT line to the Secretary of War

"Our Department is putting on the FULL ARMOR OF GOD." 🙏🏻

"God is good. Evil is not. America's military MUST understand the difference."

"Psalm 3312: blessed is the nation whose God is the Lord."

Incredible idea. ONCE AGAIN the left will say this is "violating religious freedom" even though it's being created to PROTECT that very freedom

America is a Christian nation! There is nothing wrong with that! 🇺🇸

[Pete Hegseth @PeteHegseth]

No fatties.
No trannies.
No beardos.
No weirdoes.
No wimps.
No radicals — JUST WARRIORS.

[einarronci @einarronci]

@GabySillerP Esta es la última oportunidad para el banco de México de bajar las tasas , la desaprovecharán