Nathanael E. Haizer

Learn, Earn and Return

[Bloomberg @business]

Indonesia has swung from an emerging-market darling to a global laggard, with insiders blaming the president and his inner circle for erratic and poorly communicated policies. https://t.co/6AlwZOjUqS

[Nathanael E. Haizer @EL_haizer]

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[Nathanael E. Haizer @EL_haizer]

@ArvinHonami Apa sama dengan QE ya?

[Donald J Trump Posts TruthSocial @TruthTrumpPost]

President Trump posts on TruthSocial:

Intel Stock continues to rise. I’m very proud of that Company in that I am responsible for making the United States of America over 30 Billion Dollars in the last 90 days on that stock alone.

There are others that, likewise, I have been very successful with by taking pieces of the Equity for support.

Congratulations to Intel on doing such a great job and, more importantly, congratulations to the People of the United States for making such a good investment! President DONALD J. TRUMP

[Nathanael E. Haizer @EL_haizer]

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[Nathanael E. Haizer @EL_haizer]

@Manu_Sisti Send

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

BREAKING: The world's largest banks, sovereign governments, and multilateral institutions are quietly abandoning dollar debt and borrowing in Chinese yuan instead.

The numbers are too large to ignore.

In March 2026, foreign issuance of Panda bonds tripled year on year to 27.8 billion yuan ($4 billion) in a single month.

Total yuan denominated financing by foreign borrowers hit a record 218 billion yuan ($31.6 billion) in just the first weeks of 2026. The entire full year of 2025 saw only $167 billion raised through yuan notes and loans combined.

Look at who is actually doing this.

- Deutsche Bank issued the largest single panda bond by a foreign bank in history, 5.5 billion yuan, oversubscribed 1.55x on the 3-year and 1.63x on the 5-year

- The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank issued 3 billion yuan the same month, with 58% of allocation taken by overseas investors

- Indonesia sold 9.25 billion yuan at roughly one full percentage point below what it paid on its euro denominated debt issued the same week

- Morgan Stanley and Barclays both became repeat yuan bond issuers in 2026

- Hungary issued sovereign panda bonds

- The Asian Development Bank raised a record 8.3 billion yuan in March 2025

The reason comes down to one number.

China's 10-year government bond yield is 1.82%. The equivalent U.S. Treasury yields 4.46%. That is a spread of 260 basis points, the widest gap since August 2025.

Borrowing in yuan is approximately 60% cheaper than borrowing in dollars right now. For governments and institutions that trade heavily with China, that calculation is straightforward.

Now look at what is happening to the dollar at the same time.

- The DXY fell 9.6% in full year 2025, the worst annual performance since 2017
- In the first half of 2025 alone it fell 10.7%, the worst first half performance in over 50 years
- The U.S. dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves fell to 56.32%, the lowest level since 1995, down from a peak of 72% in 2001
- China's U.S. Treasury holdings fell to $682.6 billion in November 2025, down from a peak of $1.32 trillion in 2013, a 48% decline over 13 years
- China has been selling U.S. Treasuries for nine consecutive months as of late 2025

Something more structural is also breaking down inside the Treasury market itself.

Research from the National Bureau of Economic Research found that U.S. Treasuries' convenience yield, the premium investors historically paid just to hold the safest asset in the world, has turned negative, currently sitting at -0.25% for 10-year maturities.

This premium used to save the U.S. government hundreds of billions in borrowing costs annually.

State Street confirmed that since early April 2025, rising Treasury yields now signal fiscal risk, not economic strength. That is the opposite of how a safe haven behaves.

During the global bond sell off in March 2026, triggered by geopolitical tensions and surging energy prices, U.S. Treasury yields spiked to 4.4055%, a nearly eight month high. UK, Australian, and New Zealand government bonds all hit multi-year yield highs.

China's 10-year yield moved from 1.80% to 1.84%. Chinese bonds were almost stable while everything else sold off.

Now look at what just happened today.

A ceasefire between the US and Iran has been announced. The Strait of Hormuz is reopening. But Iran is charging every oil tanker that passes through $1 per barrel of cargo, with payments accepted in Bitcoin or Chinese yuan.

A Very Large Crude Carrier carrying 2 million barrels pays up to $2 million per transit. Iran's National Security Committee has already passed legislation codifying this fee structure into law.

The system is specifically designed to bypass the dollar based financial system and U.S. sanctions. At least two vessels had already paid in yuan before the ceasefire was even announced.

The world's most critical energy chokepoint is now priced in yuan and Bitcoin, Not dollars.

The trade picture makes the shift more structural than it looks.

The yuan now accounts for 34.5% of China's cross-border goods trade settlements, up from just 10% in 2017.

China is the dominant trading partner for more than 120 countries. When your largest trading partner settles trade in its own currency, you eventually need to hold that currency as a working reserve and you buy yuan denominated bonds to do it.

The offshore dim sum bond market hit a record 870 billion yuan ($123 billion) in full year 2025, its eighth consecutive year of growth. Around 30% of global central banks are expected to increase their RMB holdings over the next decade.

UBS Asset Management said the yuan's share of global central bank reserves could rise to 10% over the medium term. It currently sits at 1.93%.

For decades, there was no real alternative to the dollar. That is what made it dominant.

What is changing now is not that the dollar is broken. It is that the world has stopped assuming it is the only option. Once that assumption breaks, it does not come back.

[Nathanael E. Haizer @EL_haizer]

@rom1trs UGC

[M. Chatib Basri @ChatibBasri]

Untuk mahasiswa ekonomi atau yg tertarik international finance, ada banyak pertanyaan yg diajukan ke saya soal Krisis 98. Pertanyaan secara reguler diajukan setiap kali rupiah melemah. Platform X tentu bukan forum yg adil untuk membahas secara lengkap soal ini, krn keterbatasannya.

Yg paling baik adalah membaca kembali study2 tentang beberapa krisis yg dialami Indonesia. Sumber tiap krisis bisa berbeda.

Berikut saya berikan beberapa potongan dan referensi dari tulisan saya “Role of Exchange Rates in Threes Financial Shocks in Indonesia, yg di edit olen Maurice Obstfeld dan Douglas Irwin, dalam buku Floating Exchang Rate at Fitfy. Obsteld dan Irwin kerap dianggap “guru guru” dalam internationa trade and finance.

Dalam tulisan ini saya menunjukkan bagaimana tingkat bunga yg tinggi akibat inflasi yg tinggi mendorong private sector meminjam dari luar, dimana tingkat buat di luar negeri relative lebih rendah.
Dan krn depresiasi rupiah “ di garansi” 5% melalui managed floating exchange rate sejak 1978 membuat pelaku ekonomi menghiraukam resiko exchange rate. Pinjaman jangka pendek swasta naik.

Ketika peg rupiah harus dilepas oleh BI krn tekanan nilai tukar akibat krisis Thai Bath di Thailand, maka utang tsb dalam nilai rupiah melompat, ini yg disebut Carmen Reinhart dan Calvo sbg fear of floating.
Situasi ini dikombinasina dg banking sector yg buruk. NPL sangat tinggi dst. Silahkan membaca lengkapnya …

Menariknya ketika mulai mengadopsi flexible exchange rate, ia membantu untuk membuat pelaku pasar terbiasa dg resiko exchange rate dan membantu portfolio balancing mereka shg “risk” menjadi “calculated risk”. Lengkapnya bisa dibaca dalam buku ini
https://t.co/ApJdLKTGYv

Untuk mhs ekonomi saya sangat menganjukan membaca buku ini, krn banyak guru”internationa finance” spt Frankel, Krugers, Helene Rey, Hyun Song Shin, Linda Goldber dsb menulis dalam buku ini.

Namun dalam chapter ini, dan juga dalam paper saya di Oxford Review of Economic Policy, “ The Impossibility of the impossible trinity? The case of Indonesia, link nya

https://t.co/pXzORo0R2F

saya menunjukkan floating exchange rate ala Mundell-Flemming juga tdk bisa diterapkan sepenuhnya, krn costnya thd perekonomian juga besar terutama dalam kondisi arus modal yg volatile, krn itu Central Bank tetap perlu melalukan intervensi, bukan untuk pegging the level tetapi smoothing the volatility.
Karena itu perlu managing capital flow dan integrated framework. Silahkan membaca

Saya juga menulis
Perbandingan 3 krisis (Krisis 98, Glibal Financial Crisis dan Taper Tantrum) secara lebih rinci juga bisa dilihat dalam chapter saya Twenty Years after the Financial Crisis (free access) dalam buku yg diterbitkan oleh IMF (free access ini link nya https://t.co/uN7xjU22CH

Tentu tidak ada jawaban tunggal untuk issue ini. Tulisan2 ini adalah upaya untuk memahami apa yg terjadi dan tentu tidak bisa mengklaim sebagai satu2nya penjelas final. Ilmu pengetahun harus bisa dibuktikan salah, dan karena itulah pemikiran berkembang, krn ia tidak difinalkan. Dan paling tidak, ini membantu mengingatkan saya: bahwa saya belum selesai jg bodohnya.

[Nathanael E. Haizer @EL_haizer]

@MFaizGhifari Boleh share linknya kak 🙏

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[Nathanael E. Haizer @EL_haizer]

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