El Senorrr🛡️

[El Senorrr🛡️ @El_Senorrr]

I just preordered #Chapter2 from @solanamobile! If you missed out on Solana Saga, don't miss out on what's next, and the chance to refer others and climb the leaderboard. https://t.co/LL41IgQqBe

[El Senorrr🛡️ @El_Senorrr]

@TheCrypt0Matrix OK

[El Senorrr🛡️ @El_Senorrr]

@Whale_Guru Ok

[El Senorrr🛡️ @El_Senorrr]

@ATRightMovies Arlington road

[El Senorrr🛡️ @El_Senorrr]

@alphaoptimiste

[El Senorrr🛡️ @El_Senorrr]

@cctvidiots Humans....

[El Senorrr🛡️ @El_Senorrr]

@0xagentr Absolument FA-BU-LEUX
Bravo pour ce super job

[El Senorrr🛡️ @El_Senorrr]

Mise à jour avec ce qui sera j'espère un dépassement de l'ancien ATH long terme pour $BTC
#btc #BTCUSDT #BTCDOMINANCE #bullrun #top2025

[El Senorrr🛡️ @El_Senorrr]

Toujours 40 à 48 semaines après le dépassement de l'ancien ATH. Si ca se reproduit, ça nous amène au 1er Trimestre 2025
Target basse: 122k
Target de base: 188k
Target haute: 253k
Rdv dans 1 an

[El Senorrr🛡️ @El_Senorrr]

@LadyofCrypto1 What do you think about that?
https://t.co/k4w2zrWCbl

[El Senorrr🛡️ @El_Senorrr]

Just one month to go before the #altseason kicks off.
Then we'll have a year or so before $BTC dominance is back on track.
#BTC #BTCDOMINANCE

[El Senorrr🛡️ @El_Senorrr]

Money time to save 71300 as the highest monthly close ever!!!!!
Local Bottom for $BTC
#Supertrend
#Ichimoku
#btc #Bitcoin

[El Senorrr🛡️ @El_Senorrr]

Just one month to go before the #altseason kicks off.
Then we'll have a year or so before $BTC dominance is back on track.
#BTC #BTCDOMINANCE

[El Senorrr🛡️ @El_Senorrr]

@LadyofCrypto1 Depends on how much you have invested

[El Senorrr🛡️ @El_Senorrr]

@ATRightMovies Bad boys

https://t.co/sxm1qeSPtz

[El Senorrr🛡️ @El_Senorrr]

@Lightningb97 @ATRightMovies Sure, this is the goat

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

Dear @schaaf_jurgen and @BindseilUlrich nice to see bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) valuation model mentioned in your paper*! As the author of S2F model I have some clarifying comments:
- There is a typo in your text: "It suggests that assets with a LOWER S2F ratio are scarcer and should therefore have higher value". This should be: "It suggests that assets with a HIGHER S2F ratio are scarcer and should therefore have higher value".
- I think it would be helpful for your readers to include references to the original 2019 and 2020 S2F articles in your references, for better understanding S2F hypothesis, methods and discussion: https://t.co/M0HmWDQn00 and https://t.co/D3ae91Lbq3
- You argue that "basic linear regression with only one predictor (the stock-to-flow ratio) to forecast something as complex as Bitcoin's price is overly simplistic". While bitcoin value and price are surely affected by many more factors than just S2F, using linear regression analysis with just one variable is quite common when measuring the isolated (ceteris paribus) effect of one factor on asset value. In fact parsimony (keeping things as simple as possible) is very important in quantitative analysis. You would probably agree that a multivariate non-linear regression is overkill in modeling the few scarce assets that exist in our world (silver, gold, diamonds, real estate, bitcoin).
- You state that "the model has not been published in any scientific journal nor undergone – solid - peer review". This is incorrect, see for example https://t.co/39ikCR1523 . Moreover, you reference a coindesk news article of a (deleted!) critique on S2F, that is full of factual of errors: https://t.co/0FA4PCYPOO . The article argues that I use "arbitrarily chosen SF data points for gold and silver", which is provably incorrect and can be verified in my original S2F articles (see links above). Then the article argues "SF has no direct relationship with gold’s value over the last 115 years", pigeonholing S2F hypothesis/model in a time-series corner and completely ignoring the cross asset aspect (see S2FX article above). Then they argue that "the SF model is likely to be spurious". While this can theoretically still be true, last 5 years of out-of-sample data does not support this spurious-argument at all.
- Finally you argue that "S2F model has failed to predict Bitcoin's price movements accurately in recent years, for example, it did not anticipate the significant price drop in 2022" based on a cointelegraph news article https://t.co/fpwjjM372G . This is incorrect. S2F prediction (made in March 2019 when btc was below $4k) for 2020-2024 halving period was an average bitcoin price of $55k with a $25k-$100k 1 standard deviation band. The actual average bitcoin price in this period turned out to be $34k, well within S2F model prediction range. However, I am fine with calling it undecided for now and call it after seeing out-of-sample results for 2024-2028 prediction of $500k average bitcoin price with $250k-$1m one standard deviation band!

* https://t.co/HUVWLcfk4y

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

Some people are waiting for 40k or a recession to strike, but I am waiting for the #Bitcoin bull run, which is coming soon.

The bull run means new ATHs and a year of great price action for all crypto.

The Price Oscillator confirms we have completed all of the local highs of the mid-cycle.

Up next for us... the bull market and the first and final cycle tops.

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

Bitcoin is entering the vertical part of the S-curve ... probably nothing.

[El Senorrr🛡️ @El_Senorrr]

@JonBlackFR Divorce direct

[El Senorrr🛡️ @El_Senorrr]

@creepydotorg Probably not! Or going crazy....

[El Senorrr🛡️ @El_Senorrr]

@RealEmirHan

[El Senorrr🛡️ @El_Senorrr]

@SenseiBR_btc It seems you were wrong 😢