You have been hearing all week about the Trump tariffs and their impact on African countries.
Some smart commentators have been writing profusely about what strategies African countries should adopt.
Others are more focused on how various scenarios will play out at the global level and spill over to Africa, regardless what strategies the continent responds with.
I have been more interested in looking at specific companies and other economic actors in the region that are seriously exposed to the US.
One such firm is DTRT, a major garment producer employing about 5600 workers in Ghana who make 50,000 pieces of apparel a day. DTRT started exporting to the US in 2014. Today, estimates suggest that about 50% of its output goes to the US. From trade intel data, nearly 100% of its most advanced product lines appear bound for the US.
A 10% basic tariff could hurt but it all depends on the tariff rates the US govt slaps on competitor countries in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean.
If the govt maintains the baseline 10% tariff across the board, and refuses to renew the 0% preferential tariff under AGOA for eligible African countries, then companies like DTRT would come under serious competitive pressure.
One reason the current US govt hasn't been all that excited about AGOA when it comes to things like garments is the "shadow Chinese" effect.
The founders of DTRT - Seth Richmond and Marc Hansult - used to work for a company in Hong Kong that sourced garments in mainland China for sale in the US. When the US - China trade situation started to worsen, the company, like several others, tried to shift sourcing to other countries, such as Madagascar.
The 0% duty advantage created by AGOA was seen as offsetting some of the competitive disadvantages of Africa (skilled labour, power costs, etc). However, Madagascar lost its AGOA access after a coup.
Seth and Marc then teamed up with veteran Ghanaian garment entrepreneur, Salma Salifu, to build a new business in Ghana to produce for the US & EU markets. Ghana was seen as less likely to lose AGOA access due to its democratic stability. Also, shipping goods from Ghana to the US can take 2 to 3 weeks when doing so from Asia can stretch from 6 to 8 weeks.
To make the US more excited about AGOA, companies like DTRT have been talking about sourcing more inputs within Africa instead of virtually importing everything from China. However, because each African country is often too small to host factories manufacturing all the inputs, AfCFTA must work so that companies can aggregate their inputs across different African countries.
It is quite clear that even sourcing 100% of inputs and intermediates within Africa is no longer enough for the new govt in the US. Hence, AfCFTA coordination is no longer the silver bullet. These days, one also has to show how certain aspects of production could be shifted to the US or bargain with something else entirely.
This is the burden faced by African policymakers.
@kwahmi But is qualified enough to create businesses that employ thousands and feeds hundreds of thousands? Let’s not accept truths only when it’s convenient. My 2 cents.
@PurpGh @VacanciesGh This is so funny. When you use data to download movies.
When you treat customers like you are doing them a favour
When because it’s not in your jd you do not care
These are the signs of making sacrifices more than your employer?
@VacanciesGh We are always speaking as if the businesses make some supernormal profits and just plain refuse to pay people well.
The sacrifices employers make for employees is usually written on water
As you dangle mortally on the cliff's edge, your fingertips burning as they dig into rock, you MUST hold until you are rescued.
It doesn’t matter if you let go 5 minutes or 5 seconds before a helping hand appears.
You STILL DIE.
Almost a winner, is still a loser.
I’m GlennSamm a visual storyteller, walking artiste, brand and culture influencer. curator and founder of Tsadidi Street Art Festival.
I have organized art installations at events like AFROCHELLA, Tsadidi street art festival, The Detty Rave, Potomanto, Chalewote. Kindly RT