Electoral Calculus

Electoral Calculus ( is a quantitative political consultancy, well-known for its website of election predictions and data.

[Electoral Calculus @ElectCalculus]

Our latest poll-of-polls puts #Labour just 13 seats short of a majority, up 1pc over September as #Reform loses 1pc.
This is Labour’s strongest seat prediction since Oct 2024.

On these numbers #Labour could form a very workable majority with the #LibDems
https://t.co/NRkt2WUv6J

[Electoral Calculus @ElectCalculus]

General Election prediction for Keir Starmer's seat, Holborn and St Pancras, shows Labour holding if a GE were held now, with a tight contest against the Greens.

Please note this is a general election prediction not a by-election prediction, as by-elections behave differently.

[Electoral Calculus @ElectCalculus]

Our latest poll-of-polls shows #Labour 60 seats short of a majority. #Labour has picked up a point or so from the #LibDems and #Greens, while #Reform has also edged up. A coalition with the #LibDems could give Labour a workable majority.
https://t.co/NRkt2WUv6J

[Electoral Calculus @ElectCalculus]

Our voter transition graphic shows how party support has changed since the 2024 GE.
• Established parties continue to lose votes
• Insurgent parties gain
• Few voters crossover between left and right
Full graphic⬇️
https://t.co/mX1gdDIdaz
and video⬇️
https://t.co/k4DkqxSYP3

[Electoral Calculus @ElectCalculus]

There has been a 'Burnham bounce' in the polling numbers this month with Labour back in first place and Reform UK in third. When translated into seats, this puts Labour ahead of the Conservative by over 100 seats.

More details: https://t.co/NRkt2WUv6J

[GB News @GBNEWS]

'That is worrying for Reform.'

'Absolutely!'

CEO of Electoral Calculus Martin Baxter on Restore Britain's trajectory in the polls.

[Electoral Calculus @ElectCalculus]

Should Andy Burnham call a snap general election?

In the latest Politics By Numbers episode, we look at what history tells us about PMs who inherit office between elections and the surprising link between Sir Keir Starmer and Sir Winston Churchill ⬇️

https://t.co/VhZWY4IOlp

[Electoral Calculus @ElectCalculus]

Tune in to yesterday's @bbc5live to hear Martin Baxter discuss the key challenges facing Andy Burnham as he heads to No.10 ⬇️
https://t.co/JFSFgD8Bl1

[Nicholas Cecil @nicholascecil]

Could London's political map really look like this after the next general election? https://t.co/MZIy03TJsS

[Electoral Calculus @ElectCalculus]

Our new MRP poll for @PLMRLtd shows Labour in first place with a Burnham boost on 217, ahead of the Conservatives on 151 and Reform on 127. Restore Britain is also included.
If a general election were held now, our numbers point to a hung parliament.
https://t.co/4msYnyn7YW

[Electoral Calculus @ElectCalculus]

Most polling in June was done before Keir Starmer resigned as PM. Our poll-of-polls has #Labour and #Conservatives up a bit this month, the #Greens down and if an election happened now #Reform would be the largest party but well short of a majority Details:https://t.co/NRkt2WUv6J

[GB News @GBNEWS]

Martin Baxter assesses Andy Burnham's popularity amongst voters. He looks at a poll that says he would put Labour three points ahead of Reform if he became the new Labour leader.

📺 Freeview 236, Sky 512, Virgin 604
🇬🇧 Become a Friend of GB News: https://t.co/mNsRsGC8ef

[Electoral Calculus @ElectCalculus]

Our latest poll-of-polls shows #Greens have lost 1pc of support since April. If a general election happened now, #Reform would be the largest party but short of a majority and would need #Conservative support. #Labour would be third largest party.
Details:https://t.co/NRkt2WUv6J

[GB News @GBNEWS]

‘In political terms that is a big difference.’

CEO of Electoral Calculus, Martin Baxter, gives the latest polling updates on how immigration is playing on the minds of the British public.

📺 Freeview 236, Sky 512, Virgin 604

[GB News @GBNEWS]

'This was particularly fertile hunting ground for Reform for votes...'

Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus discusses Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham's odds of winning a by-election in Makerfield, as he make a bid to become Prime Minister.

[Electoral Calculus @ElectCalculus]

Our latest newsletter looks at the political drama of the week, with Andy Burnham's possible return to Westminster via Makerfield.

Plus, Politics By Numbers digs into the seven political tribes shaping Britain.
Watch➡️https://t.co/v43FkUZQO9

[GB News @GBNEWS]

'Reform gets about 250 seats at Westminster...'

CEO of Electoral Calculus, Martin Baxter reveals what the results of a general election would be if it were to be held tomorrow.

[Electoral Calculus @ElectCalculus]

For the Senedd election tomorrow, we predict Plaid Cymru and Reform to be the two largest parties. Neither is forecast to win a majority but Plaid will likely lead the next coalition government. Plaid's central forecast is 35 seats with a range of 25 to 42
https://t.co/2cLJOiq2fV

[Electoral Calculus @ElectCalculus]

As of Wed 6 May, Electoral Calculus predicts that the SNP will continue in government after the Holyrood elections on 7 May. Central forecast of 65 seats, a bare majority, with a predicted range of 55 to 69 seats.
https://t.co/w8T8I90U7J

[Electoral Calculus @ElectCalculus]

Our latest poll-of-polls has #Reform slightly down but still ahead, though far short of a majority. They would need #Conservative support to govern, with #Labour as the opposition. #PlaidCymru has doubled its predicted seats since last month. Details at: https://t.co/NRkt2WUv6J