electionmapsuk

🗳️ Reporting UK Election Results & Collating Polling Data | A Project By @mattftommo | In Partnership with @NavigatePol | contact me on [email protected]

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

📌 | Pinned Tweet

📊 | Nowcast, By-Election Results, Opinion Polling & More | https://t.co/0MuPzIBlhd

🗺️ | Purchase Election Posters Here | https://t.co/rN2C6uX0DD

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 28% (-1)
CON: 25% (+2)
RFM: 20% (-2)
LDM: 9% (=)
GRN: 7% (-1)
RES: 6% (+1)
SNP: 3% (+1)

Via @Moreincommon_, 6-9 Nov.
Changes w/ 31 Oct - 1 Nov.

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 27% (+1)
CON: 21% (-3)
RFM: 20% (-1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 10% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
RES: 3% (=)

Via @YouGov, 8-9 Nov.
Changes w/ 1-2 Nov.

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

@Luis_Cook1 @LibConHenry Full sweep in Great Yarmouth, none elsewhere.

Vote share distribution is quite flat at the moment, mostly from a lack of data, so upcoming by-election results should hopefully inform model a bit more.

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

🗺️ | NEW: With 6 months to go, I've launched the 2027 Local Elections dashboard - with ward by ward projections for the first time!

Headline Seat Projection:

CON 2,548 (+214)
LAB 2,018 (-696)
RFM 1,876 (+1,455)
LDM 1,166 (-473)
GRN 449 (-87)
SNP 400 (-13)
PLC 306 (+103)

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

https://t.co/Rl6jsuQbz9

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 31% (+1)
RFM: 24% (-1)
CON: 20% (-3)
LDM: 9% (+2)
GRN: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @DeltapollUK, 6-9 Nov.
Changes w/ 30 Oct - 2 Nov.

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

Six council by-elections are taking place this week:

🌹 Huncoat (Hyndburn)
🌹 Croft Baker (North East Lincolnshire)
🙋 Failsworth West (Oldham)
🌹 Cheddleton (Staffordshire Moorlands)
➡️ Bosmere (Suffolk)
🙋 Hindley Green (Wigan)

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

General Election Nowcast - 08/11/26:

LAB: 333 (-78) | 28.5% (Maj. of 16)
CON: 126 (+5) | 21.5%
LDM: 64 (-8) | 9.1%
RFM: 45 (+40) | 21.4%
SNP: 41 (+32) | 2.6%
PLC: 8 (+4) | 1.0%
GRN: 7 (+3) | 9.0%
RES: 1 (+1) | 4.0%
Oth: 6 (+1) | 2.6%

https://t.co/Y304WEtim3

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 28% (-2)
RFM: 21% (-1)
CON: 20% (=)
GRN: 11% (+3)
LDM: 10% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @OpiniumResearch, 4-6 Nov.
Changes w/ 28-30 Oct.

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

🎁 | Printing and sending next batch of posters this weekend - please order by midnight on Sunday! (Will do 1 more batch before Christmas).

https://t.co/rN2C6uXytb

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

421 years on from the Gunpowder Plot, Toasters, Bin-fires, and Vapes have emerged as the biggest threats to Parliament - which has been subject to *47* small fires in the last 12 years...

Read all about it it this week's @NavigatePol weekly roundup!

[Navigate Politics @NavigatePol]

In this Friday's Weekly Roundup...

Republican’t | Rate Expectations | Rules Britannia

Donald Trump and JD Vance received their midterm report this week, and it’s fair to say neither will be sticking it on the fridge. The Republicans’ defeat has left both men explaining what went wrong, with rather bigger questions about what comes next for the party, the presidency and everyone else. With the global economy hanging on what Trump does next, Andy Burnham returned from the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting to tackle the big issues back home: e-bike rules and job ad salaries. Global uncertainty, meet the small print…

And in our Bonfire Night week special - as Parliament considers the restoration and renewal of the parliamentary estate, @electionmapsuk looks at the number of times in recent years the threat of fire has reared its ugly head again...

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

Aggregate Result of the 150 Council By-Elections Since the 2026 Local Elections:

CON: 31 (-1) | 19% (-1)
RFM: 28 (+6) | 22% (+10)
LAB: 27 (-3) | 20% (-3)
LDM: 25 (+4) | 14% (+1)
GRN: 16 (+3) | 14% (-2)
PLC: 11 (=) | 3% (+1)
Ind: 5 (-8) | 4% (-3)
SNP: 5 (+2) | 3% (-2)
Loc: 2 (-2) | 1% (-1)
RES: 0 (-) | 1% (+1)

https://t.co/9hLSSJO6Po

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

Penn Hill (Bournemouth, Christchurch, & Poole) Council By-Election Result:

🔶 LDM: 43.6% (+0.9)
🌳 CON: 26.1% (+1.0)
➡️ RFM: 17.8% (New)
🌹 LAB: 4.6% (-6.7)
◼️ RES: 3.6% (New)
🌍 GRN: 2.2% (-6.5)
🙋 Ind: 1.9% (New)
🙋 Ind: 0.2% (New)

No PE (-12.2) as previous.

Liberal Democrat HOLD.
Changes w/ 2023.

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 28% (=)
CON: 21% (=)
RFM: 20% (=)
GRN: 13% (+2)
LDM: 8% (-2)
SNP: 2% (-1)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 4 Nov.
Changes w/ 28 Oct.

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 30% (+1)
CON: 22% (=)
RFM: 22% (-1)
LDM: 10% (=)
GRN: 10% (+1)
SNP: 2% (=)

Via @tweetfreshwater, 30 Oct - 1 Nov.
Changes w/ 9-11 Oct.

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 29% (+1)
CON: 23% (-1)
RFM: 22% (-1)
LDM: 9% (-2)
GRN: 8% (+1)
RES: 5% (=)
SNP: 2% (=)

Via @Moreincommon_, 31 Oct - 1 Nov.
Changes w/ 24-26 Oct.

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

The Conservative Party has overtaken Reform UK in the electionmapsuk polling tracker.

This is the first time the Tories have polled ahead of Reform since January 2025.

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 26% (-1)
CON: 24% (+2)
RFM: 21% (+1)
LDM: 11% (=)
GRN: 10% (=)
SNP: 3% (+1)
RES: 3% (-1)

Via @YouGov, 1-2 Nov.
Changes w/ 25-26 Oct.

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

Probably a good opportunity to show off the new 'Current Parliament' dashboard!

https://t.co/CgZUcrFPC5

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

🚨 Carla Lockhart MP (Upper Bann) has left the DUP and will now sit as an Independent.

The DUP now has just 4 MPs, the lowest total since immediately before the 2001 General Election.

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 30% (-2)
RFM: 25% (=)
CON: 23% (+2)
GRN: 8% (=)
LDM: 7% (=)
SNP: 3% (-1)

Via @DeltapollUK, 30 Oct - 2 Nov.
Changes w/ 23-26 Oct.