For the first time EVER, ElectionOracle projects Texas to go for the Democratic Party. I'm projecting a 0.6%-0.9% win for Talarico on the back of strong poll performances. This race will be intriguing to see.
For the first time EVER, ElectionOracle projects Texas to go for the Democratic Party. I'm projecting a 0.6%-0.9% win for Talarico on the back of strong poll performances. This race will be intriguing to see.
ELECTION ORACLE'S SEPTEMBER PREDICTION!!!
Boy is it getting close. 5 states are within one percentage point of flipping either way. Stay posted for more updates!
ELECTION ORACLE'S SEPTEMBER PREDICTION!!!
Boy is it getting close. 5 states are within one percentage point of flipping either way. Stay posted for more updates!
For the first time EVER, Talarico slips past Paxton on Kalshi and Polymarket on the back of 6 strong poll performances in a row! Personally, I'm not sure if his strong polling is enough to overcome Texas's red lean. I'm keeping it as a toss-up for now.
For the first time EVER, Talarico slips past Paxton on Kalshi and Polymarket on the back of 6 strong poll performances in a row! Personally, I'm not sure if his strong polling is enough to overcome Texas's red lean. I'm keeping it as a toss-up for now.
Here is the August prediction for Election Oracle! Texas could go either way. Michigan's primary ended today and I believe El-Sayed is a weaker candidate, so Michigan shifts towards Republicans.
My current prediction for the 2026 senate race - boy, is it close! I can't decide on a direction for either Texas or Ohio, and as it appears, neither can the prediction markets. Both states are within 49-51 for either side. I project ME, MI and AK to go ever-so-slightly D.
Here is the August prediction for Election Oracle! Texas could go either way. Michigan's primary ended today and I believe El-Sayed is a weaker candidate, so Michigan shifts towards Republicans.
ElectionOracle's July 2026 Election Prediction is here!!
I'm projecting Texas to go for Republicans just so slightly - I don't think the 50-50 poll numbers are enough just yet to kick the election in democrats' favour. Iowa seems to get closer and closer every day.
Senate prediction - June 2026. Remains very similar to before. I think Texas is closer to flipping than many people might think. Maine could be seen as lean blue instead of tilt blue, but I still think Collins’ moderate appeal works in her favour here.
Senate prediction map for 2026, May update.
Democrats need a net +4 to flip. Counting Tilt D and bluer: ME, MI, NC, AK all lean blue; OH is the lone pure toss-up. Dems need 51.
Ohio is the tipping-point state.
Mike Rogers saying "we're gonna be fine, we got plenty of oil" while Michigan voters watch gas prices climb is the kind of clip that gets played in attack ads from now until November. Self-inflicted. In a state Trump won by 1.4 points, Republicans cannot afford unforced errors.
Democrats have been fundraising in much larger amounts than republicans THROUGHOUT the past 4 months. In every swing state. Statiscally, around 85% of campaign runners who outfund their opponents have won their elections.
I am a 14 Year Old Child trying to predict elections to the best of my ability. I predicted 49 states correctly in 2020.
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