Erin O'Cool

Data-driven electoral projections | Le français marche aussi

[Erin O'Cool @electionmeter]

If Austria and Algeria play to a draw today, we will have no. 67 of the 495 possible combinations of eight best third-placed teams. Fun!

[Erin O'Cool @electionmeter]

2/495 combinations of eight best third-placed teams remain possible.

[Erin O'Cool @electionmeter]

Updated probabilities for each third-placed team at #FWC2026 to advance, after Matchday 3 for Group K:
-The DRC is through and will face off against England
-Korea is eliminated
-Belgium will play Senegal
-Switzerland's opponent will be either Algeria or Iran

[Erin O'Cool @electionmeter]

4/495 combinations of eight best third-placed teams remain possible:

[Erin O'Cool @electionmeter]

Updated probabilities for each third-placed team at #FWC2026 to advance, after CRO-GHA and PAN-ENG:
-Ghana advance, to play Portugal or Colombia
-Scotland is officially eliminated
-Korea could be eliminated in the coming hours, depending on Group K results

[Erin O'Cool @electionmeter]

8/495 combinations of eight best third-placed teams remain possible:

[Erin O'Cool @electionmeter]

Updated probabilities for each third-placed team at #FWC2026 to advance, after NZL-BEL and EGY-IRN:
-Senegal have clinched advancement
-Iran have a good chance, but would be eliminated if Algeria, DR Congo, and Ghana all get 3rd place from 4 points

[Erin O'Cool @electionmeter]

15/495 combinations of best third-placed teams remain possible:

[Erin O'Cool @electionmeter]

Updated probability for each third-placed team at #FWC2026 to advance:

-Uruguay are eliminated
-Germany will play Paraguay
-France will play Sweden

[Erin O'Cool @electionmeter]

31/495 combinations of best third-placed teams remain possible:

[Erin O'Cool @electionmeter]

Current probability for each third-placed team at #FWC2026 to advance:

[Jake Landau (He/Him) 🇨🇦🇵🇸🇻🇪🇺🇦 @JakeLandauTO]

I think this is worth highlighting again. Both Lori Idlout and Marilyn Gladu crossed the floor because the Liberals would neglect their ridings to spite them for not voting Liberal. That's not healthy! Government is supposed to serve all Canadians, not just their voters!

[Erin O'Cool @electionmeter]

This is looking pretty accurate so far! I should point out that most experts probably expected ONP to win opposition, but turns out calculations beat conjecture.

Ex. "LIBs could be wiped out... & be replaced by ONP as the main RW party" #auspol #sapol https://t.co/oliOdpICMs

[Erin O'Cool @electionmeter]

Final 2026 South Australian state election forecast:

Labor majority, Liberal opposition [1/3] https://t.co/AHOHIvC4sF

[Erin O'Cool @electionmeter]

[3/3] More: https://t.co/lQ5VPFstxD

[Erin O'Cool @electionmeter]

Final 2026 South Australian state election forecast:

Labor majority, Liberal opposition [1/3] https://t.co/AHOHIvC4sF

[Erin O'Cool @electionmeter]

TPP vote
🟥 59% (+4)
🟦 41% (-4)

Primary vote
🟥 37% (-3)
🟧 23% (+20)
🟦 18% (-18)
⬜️ 11% (-2)
🟩 11% (+2)

[2/3]

[Erin O'Cool @electionmeter]

[3/3] More: https://t.co/lQ5VPFstxD

[Erin O'Cool @electionmeter]

Feb 2026 South Australian state election forecast:

Labor poised to win majority, Liberals to beat One Nation for opposition status [1/3] https://t.co/wxQmQG7zcG

[Erin O'Cool @electionmeter]

TPP vote
🟥 LAB 60% (+5)
🟦 LIB 40% (-5)

Primary vote
🟥 LAB 40% (=)
🟧 ONP 23% (+20)
🟦 LIB 18% (-18)
🟩 GRN 11% (+2)
⬜️ OTH 8% (-5)

[2/3]

[Erin O'Cool @electionmeter]

@Spacemanspiff98 @beyoncegarden It's in York Region, judging by the bus at the intersection