elk

"I have seen all the works that are done under the sun; and, behold, all is vanity and vexation of spirit." Ecc 1:14

[elk @elevator_elk]

Here's a fractal showing an overextended “scenario 3” from pinned tweet.

This would surpass the .782 fib on tech, invalidating the current idea of an imminent blow off top.

Then reverse shortly after. Nasty price action for both bears + bulls in the end.

[elk @elevator_elk]

$BABA up 9% since this tweet, i think this is just the beginning

Gapped up almost everyday this week, slight pullback is logical. But i think we are still very early on the alibaba bull run

To put it in perspective, Burry's average buy-in price is $89.6

$BABA -> $150 this year

[elk @elevator_elk]

$BABA technical analysis

- IHS Daily, <$73 invalidation
- Bullish reversal divergence Daily
- Falling wedge 4HR

If bears cant get markets < 4187 $ES_F + 14000 $NQ soon, may be massive runs this summer on certain underperforming stocks (rotation plays) before the macro pivot

[elk @elevator_elk]

@LegionofJelly for sure

https://t.co/KfDp99PgNh

$JD and $BABA make up 20% of Burry's portfolio at the moment.

https://t.co/tsz7nJAJ7w

[elk @elevator_elk]

Heads up on two stocks that may play out like $TSLA is right now.

$JD and $BABA

Charts look very bullish, flows starting to come in for summer.

Bullish divergences on LT timeframes, most notably on $JD (daily + weekly)

[elk @elevator_elk]

flow for $BABA >100k premium

Most orders weren't here a few days ago. Liquidity starting to finally pick up. Spot price above $88 when contracts bought.

0.11 Call/Put ratio for >100k premium.

[elk @elevator_elk]

Chart for $BABA

[elk @elevator_elk]

flow for $BABA >100k premium

Most orders weren't here a few days ago. Liquidity starting to finally pick up. Spot price above $88 when contracts bought.

0.11 Call/Put ratio for >100k premium.

[elk @elevator_elk]

@palantirbull1 @LegionofJelly https://t.co/ARNg4ZSE7S

https://t.co/jVHlgIzu5g

https://t.co/pQHaIvQtQN

https://t.co/4Dcub0bPJ3

[elk @elevator_elk]

$BABA vs $GME '21

There is a clear LT timeframe bull divergence + IHS set up to $150

Beyond technicals, I think there's actually a chance this stock could meme run to ATHs by 2025, which would be truly remarkable, but I do see a reality where it happens.

<$73 invalidation

[elk @elevator_elk]

@palantirbull1 @LegionofJelly https://t.co/Zd1Fxjs1uY

summary :

bullish on certain stocks - $BABA, $TSLA , $AI, $AMC. I like their charts. Been in plays but still think it’s ongoing.

Macro - unless 4187 $ES_F is revisited, could follow quoted fractal, be at ~4600+ $SPX. Then macro turnaround at play EOY

[elk @elevator_elk]

Here's a fractal showing an overextended “scenario 3” from pinned tweet.

This would surpass the .782 fib on tech, invalidating the current idea of an imminent blow off top.

Then reverse shortly after. Nasty price action for both bears + bulls in the end.

[elk @elevator_elk]

@LegionofJelly Then there’s this

https://t.co/QwPpuW4c8V

only time in markets where there were more shorts before we took off was a month before the ‘08 top.

So I think being bullish on certain downtrodden stocks w/ invalidations is reasonable until the possible EOY window of weakness comes

[elk @elevator_elk]

Something macro to keep in mind: right before this breakout in markets we had the 2nd highest net short positioning in $SPY futures, next to Sept '07 which was a month before the top

Markets rallied hard in Sept 07 as shown in the fractal included in thread before the big sell

[elk @elevator_elk]

@LegionofJelly Cyclical vs secular effects

https://t.co/0AZIj5bzRZ

Inflation - cyclical down, secular up

Macro woes could come back and rage harder than ‘22 catching many by surprise. I am in this camp atm.

[Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant]

Secular vs. cyclical Inflation…

[elk @elevator_elk]

@LegionofJelly To be completely honest - not yet. ATM I’m leaning towards an extended scenario 3 into EOY, as downtrodden stocks outperform

Below fractal has turnaround near ATH, then suggests ‘24 will mirror ‘22

So my timing will be off but I still see sell coming

https://t.co/yss9oBBqKo

[elk @elevator_elk]

Must consider this roadmap moving forward

$SPX is near 4300, $NQ is still consolidating under 14600

If markets trade < 4187 $ES_F + < 14000 $NQ, then the blow off top is ongoing imo.

Until then, prepared for a possible extended scenario 3 to 4600 then macro turnover

[elk @elevator_elk]

@jx6pw bears tried to price in existential risk bc it traded like an illiquid altcoin last yr, in reality the only way it is a zero is if CCP wants it at a zero. Which is self-sabotage.

too much cash, barely any debt, 10x revenue than 9 yrs ago. If it recovers to 8 EPS then ATHs imo

[elk @elevator_elk]

@jx6pw With $BABA capturing more global online sales than $AMZN, it’s a top 15 corporation worldwide imo, priced at 15 PE with a 35 historical median PE. $AMZN in comparison is 97. Mean reversion play on fundamentals has it to $150, which is average 12 month analyst projection

[elk @elevator_elk]

$TSLA switched stop to BE to a trailing stop. right now at < $215. Giving it room to run to $300. Worst case scenario for this trade now is a 7% gain. If stopped, will look for summer expiry calls at support. Trying to hold trade till $350s..

[elk @elevator_elk]

Only active position I have right now is heavy long $TSLA stock at 201.2 with a 187.67 stop out. if $TSLA can trade above $218 and continue the breakout, I will move stops to BE. If bears are able to take $ES_F under 4187, I will probably enter LT short

https://t.co/qZqMrTTHeD

[elk @elevator_elk]

@mapang1991 Could be at play, Fake breakout targets 80-81

liquidity is low, flow is call dominated, 1st pic <50k premium 2nd pic >100k.

Option traders are betting for a move sooner than later

Can see in 3rd pic there's still space in this falling wedge as well

4th pic P/C ratio

[elk @elevator_elk]

This ST roadmap still applies for $BABA

We either breakout > $87, or we dip towards $80-81 to print that right shoulder for an IHS

Been buying $BABA the last week or so - let's just say I initiate my long here at $86 for brevity's sake.

I think trade + stay <$72 invalidation

[elk @elevator_elk]

$BABA up big in the last hour

Here's what i see.

if bullish, can hope for that $80-$81 range dip, or enter starting positions and ladder down.

There are two stops that make sense on this play. long term PT of $120

NFA.

Never blindly follow financial commentary from an elk.

[elk @elevator_elk]

@StocksBullTrain His view is something like this https://t.co/iJjDy9rhuw

Which I believe is still at play under 15300 $NQ

But one must be aware and prepare for something like this, upsetting both macro bulls + bears in the end https://t.co/Zd1Fxjs1uY

[elk @elevator_elk]

Here's a fractal showing an overextended “scenario 3” from pinned tweet.

This would surpass the .782 fib on tech, invalidating the current idea of an imminent blow off top.

Then reverse shortly after. Nasty price action for both bears + bulls in the end.

[elk @elevator_elk]

Something macro to keep in mind: right before this breakout in markets we had the 2nd highest net short positioning in $SPY futures, next to Sept '07 which was a month before the top

Markets rallied hard in Sept 07 as shown in the fractal included in thread before the big sell

[elk @elevator_elk]

2nd highest position net short in $SPY futures next to sept 2007 , a month before the top, as shown in fractal above. notice similarities in market structure.

[elk @elevator_elk]

Outstanding shares in 2014: 2.33 billion

Outstanding shares in 2023: 2.63 billion

$BABA

[elk @elevator_elk]

$BABA

2014 ( $92 a share)
- Revenue: $10.1B
- Equity: $9B

2023 ($85 a share)
- Revenue: $129.2B
- Equity: $159B

Average analyst 12 month forecast: $145 ($115 lowest)

Report in May 2022 revealed that $BABA has captured 1/4 of global online sales.

[elk @elevator_elk]

Who knows what the future holds

On paper, far below Buffet's 10x EBT rule for investing

China risk + Jack Mao's problems w/ CCP have discounted $BABA to which bearish sentiment forecasts existential risk ("it's a zero")

if its not? Then fundamental valuations are extremely low