Eli's Investing

My personal investing/trading journal

[Eli's Investing @EliInvests]

@Dr_Crossroads I don't know that he will be punished because of his prominence and notoriety with the administration/rest of world, but I think the downstream impact would be potential pull back of advanced chip sales to SE ASIA amongst maybe other regions depending on results of probe.

[Eli's Investing @EliInvests]

@Investor_NICK_ She's gonna form the $200 a share sell wall in solidarity with Mckenzie Scott.

Honestly tho just painful and embarrassing for all parties. But I feel like as crass as this sounds Jensen is kind of the guy, so I feel like he escapes all punishment here from wife/NVDA/gov.

[Eli's Investing @EliInvests]

At this point just nuke the semis lower so they’re tradeable again, crazy seeing $SNDK sub 1k some of these names are going to have an insane YTD round trip.

[Eli's Investing @EliInvests]

@babyfolio It doesn't matter that much but dems are running on anti data center platform. You'll see a move based off vibes for those stocks depending on results.

The governor races ie in FL & TX matter more than congress/senate because a dem governor can issue moratorium on new builds.

[Eli's Investing @EliInvests]

I think your initial take is right selling for this measly(and potentially non existent premium) after guiding to being sold out for years is completely illogical unless you believe demand/valuations are about to crater in next 2 years.

If there is a reason that specifically optics names in particular would be in a particularly vulnerable position over next two years than that could be another reason, or it’s likely they think data center buildout will slow vs current expectations and maybe they’re spooked about US anti data center politics.

Sure you can twist things in a favorable way and say they’re selling because they believe in $MRVL equity but that just seems like copium, wouldn’t you rather have ownership and upside of your own business if you believe in it. The deal just smells super funky and makes me not want to touch an optic stock with a 10 foot pole.

It seems most likely they think we overbuild in ‘27 and slow down in ‘28 and the market is sniffing that out.

[Eli's Investing @EliInvests]

Irans demands for a deal haven’t changed, if Trump was gonna give in he would have ages ago when it would’ve politically benefited him in midterms.

The most self interested politician ever is not conceding to Iran now, he’ll just blame stocks on democrats winning election. He’s either going to keep the blockage going or start bombing I just can’t see any reason there’d be a deal at this point.

[Eli's Investing @EliInvests]

@P_Remarks Definitely could see peace deal but it seems improbable given at this point it doesn't benefit trump politically.

Seems unlikely he'd give into their demands at this point, he might just frustration bomb them as the maximum leverage spot to make a deal was a few weeks back.

[Eli's Investing @EliInvests]

@jbulltard1 It’s a uniparty and both parties generally stink and would rather bankrupt the country than cut entitlements.

That being said, the corruption in this administration is so off the charts I feel it has to be punished. And the only way to do that is to vote.

[Eli's Investing @EliInvests]

@_HalalTrader_ This all his tweets now, talking his book and political fud.

Don’t think he realizes (or cares) how many people he’s pissing off and how many enemies he’s making but it’s probably worth mentioning in ‘24 Tesla ripped after Trump won, could see the reverse after midterms.

[Eli's Investing @EliInvests]

Beyond this, there’s a couple large issues with the semi trade imo. Huge competition for capital, Anthropic IPO, SpaceX funding, Meta funding, everyone else.

All else being equal that means it’s harder to raise capital and is more costly which means more challenging for the smaller neoclouds. Additionally, SpaceX going bananas with compute spend is actually not a positive since the majority of their spend will be rented out and not internally used.

In other words the majority of their new compute will act as GPU supply on open market which could eventually impact GPU rental pricing. If GPU rental pricing drops then the small neoclouds are really in trouble. I’m not saying a compute glut is right around the corner but it’s easier to see the potential. There’s also still growth concerns with frontier labs and the looming blue sweep with anti data center sentiment.

And in the background you have seemingly likely Iran war coming back around. Just not a great setup.

[Eli's Investing @EliInvests]

I think this market is cooked unless Iran conflict ends. There’s just way too much uncertainty and no sector that can carry the market.

Midterms are coming and democrats are increasingly anti data center and they’re gonna sweep. That’s negative for semis and the pacing narrative is still there+ you have large IPOs coming on top of a lot of supply/dilution recently. Software fully valued, hyperscalers still spending ton of money but also are in trouble to a degree if pacing narrative results in cloud slowdown. And you have hawkish Fed but also high bonds, like I just think it’s bad setup overall.

[Eli's Investing @EliInvests]

@DeepDishEnjoyer I have such belief in insider trading in this admin that when price moves hard one way without news I assume insiders know something.

This week felt like that, I feel like there’s gotta be some news or an event coming.

[Eli's Investing @EliInvests]

This partially true but ignores potential verticals they can go into. Short term model spend matters a ton yes but long term what matters is model improvement and creating intelligence moat.

If the models continue to improve at similar rate as in recent 24 months, they haven't scraped their potential TAM. Preventing effective distallation and model improvements are how you get to atleast the idea of a MOAT and short term price action aside thats what matters for long term valuation. But obviously yes if theres no moat thats beneficial for consumers and doesnt justify the spend.

[Eli's Investing @EliInvests]

@BakuTheDon @ostonox @JordanUhl This is over dramatic you can always push back school hours if you absolutely need to, and there should be ample street lighting.

9-5 business hours aren’t changing and what percentage of the population is impacted at 7 am vs 5 pm.

[Eli's Investing @EliInvests]

@bayleafsmaple @ostonox @JordanUhl What percentage of the population is awake and affected at 7-8am vs 5pm? It’s considerably better w afternoon sunlight.

9-5 is the typical work schedule. You can always push back school, the work schedule isn’t getting changed and we should have sufficient street lights.

[Eli's Investing @EliInvests]

@atrupar Exceedingly rare Trump W nothing worse than when it’s dark and cold at 4pm

[Eli's Investing @EliInvests]

@ostonox @JordanUhl What’s even worse is working all day in freezing cold winter just for it to be fully dark after work, that shit is depressing the entire day is work and darkness right after., we need DST.

[Eli's Investing @EliInvests]

@amitisinvesting Think $META selling off in fear of Open AI dev day tomorrow potentially unveiling muse competitor

[Eli's Investing @EliInvests]

@Investor_NICK_ It’s easily one of the largest reasons. If we had a balanced budget and weren’t running it hot every year then i think equities do much worse.

Underrated part of the pre liberation day sell off in ‘25 was the idea that doge would actually meaningfully cut federal spending.

[Eli's Investing @EliInvests]

0 good reason for anyone to have a meme coin, the sole purpose is to steal money from fools.

If you’re not benefiting from it all you have to say is “I completely disavow and have no stake in this, do not buy.” Otherwise you’re letting people scam in your name if not scamming yourself.

[Eli's Investing @EliInvests]

Only other time I’ve felt like this was early ‘25 w Tariffs and Doge cuts looming in background, I think we’re heading lower and would be very surprised if we didn’t w/o Iran resolution.

[Eli's Investing @EliInvests]

I think this market is cooked unless Iran conflict ends. There’s just way too much uncertainty and no sector that can carry the market.

Midterms are coming and democrats are increasingly anti data center and they’re gonna sweep. That’s negative for semis and the pacing narrative is still there+ you have large IPOs coming on top of a lot of supply/dilution recently. Software fully valued, hyperscalers still spending ton of money but also are in trouble to a degree if pacing narrative results in cloud slowdown. And you have hawkish Fed but also high bonds, like I just think it’s bad setup overall.