Elise Gould

Economist, bike commuter, ultimate frisbee player. Studying wages, poverty, jobs, health care, and economic mobility. Striving to be part of the solution.

[Elise Gould @eliselgould]

The labor market stuck the landing!!!
Not much soft about it.

We end the year with a strong #jobsday:
- Payroll employment up 256k
- Unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%
- Labor force participation rate held steady
- Overall and prime-age employment-to-population ratios up

[Elise Gould @eliselgould]

Hires and quits softened a bit. Not alarming but something to watch as both are just below pre-pandemic rates. Labor market churn often falls when workers don't feel confident that they can quit and find a better job. Workers seem to be sitting tight for now. Layoffs remain low.

[Elise Gould @eliselgould]

The latest #JOLTS data shows much is "little changed" and "changed little" for November, expected given no surprises in the jobs data for that month as the labor market returned to strength after the dip in October.

[Elise Gould @eliselgould]

Job openings ticked up slightly in Nov but have trended back into the normal range for well over two years. Compared to its height in Mar 2022, job openings are down by about one-third. Job openings clearly appear in line with prepandemic trends along with the growing population.

[Elise Gould @eliselgould]

Latest price data out this morning. We learned last week that average nominal wages grew 4.0%. Today's inflation data came in at 2.7% over the year. Thus, average real wages grew 1.3%. November marks 19 months in a row of rising average real wages, increasing living standards.

[Elise Gould @eliselgould]

Over the long run (1979-2023), wage growth has been vastly unequal. Annual wages for the top 1% and top 0.1% skyrocketed by 181.7% and 353.9%, respectively, while wages for the bottom 90% grew just 43.7%. The highest earners have amassed a growing share of total wages since 1979.

[Elise Gould @eliselgould]

Big news on inequality:
- wage inequality fell in 2023 as real earnings grew for the bottom 90% and declined for the top 1%
- over the long run, 1979-2023, wages for the top 1% skyrocketed (+182%) while wages for the bottom 90% was slow (44%).
https://t.co/mDHAWsAgFw

[Elise Gould @eliselgould]

Unlike long-standing labor market trends, new data finds wage compression—faster growth at the bottom than the top—since 2019. The pandemic economy was characterized by a deep recession followed by a tremendous labor market bounceback engineered by intentional policy decisions.

[Elise Gould @eliselgould]

Another indicator to keep an eye on in coming months (and always) is the share of the population 25-54 with a job. After hitting a high of 80.9% this summer, it has slowly trended down this fall. Both the prime-age employment-to-population ratio for men and women softened.

[Elise Gould @eliselgould]

The latest #jobs data says the labor market is still going strong. After the softer numbers in October from the weather and striking workers, November bounces back with strong job growth along with upward revisions. On average, the economy added 173k jobs the last 3 months.

[Elise Gould @eliselgould]

The overall unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.2%, still quite strong. The Black unemployment rate ticked up to 6.4%, significantly higher than the white or AAPI rate. It's notably a volatile series due to a smaller sample size, but still a key measure to keep an eye on.

[Elise Gould @eliselgould]

Job openings ticked up in the latest #JOLTS data for October as quits rose, hires fell slightly, and layoffs remained low. For more labor market analysis, please find me where the skies are blue: https://t.co/6co5jv3Z0M

[Elise Gould @eliselgould]

Strong, not hot. Real wages are rising as inflation continues to fall. Nominal wage growth remains in line with productivity improvements and a low labor share of corporate sector income. The Fed should continue to return interest rates to normal levels.
https://t.co/AZXjK13XLt

[Elise Gould @eliselgould]

After Friday's tremendous jobs report, good news on prices. Inflation is down to 2.4% over the year, falling 6 months in a row to its lowest since February 2021. Inflation-adjusted wages are up 1.5%. Rising real wages increase the living standards of workers and their families.

[Elise Gould @eliselgould]

When comparing the labor market with four years ago (in the pandemic recession) or before the pandemic began, the answer is clear: More workers have jobs and wages are beating inflation by solid margins. At the low end, 16.8% real wage growth and 6.5% for workers at the middle!

[Elise Gould @eliselgould]

@EconomicPolicy @Katiedeco4 @joe_fast1 If you want to read more about just how strong this recovery and the current labor market is, please check out my latest blog post detailing latest trends in job and wage growth, particularly compared to historical benchmarks.

https://t.co/6KwDkC4qpP

[Elise Gould @eliselgould]

Strong jobs report!
- payroll employment up 254,000 with past months revised up by 72,000
- nominal wage growth rose 4.0% over the year
- unemployment rate ticks down to 4.1%
- overall employment-to-population ratio rises while the prime-age EPOP holds steady at 23 year high

[Elise Gould @eliselgould]

For more @EconomicPolicy charts on the latest labor market data, check out our jobs day landing page.

Huge thank you to @Katiedeco4 and @joe_fast1 for their fast and meticulous work preparing and updating all the spreadsheets and charts.

https://t.co/smYRiVbr4W