Eli Berenshtein

Equity Analyst • Footballer & Fan. Finding market inefficiencies by day, and fixing football's broken risk-reward rules by night.

[Eli Berenshtein @elliboops]

#ENGARG⁠ ⁠#WorldCup⁠ ⁠#Messi⁠ ⁠#ThreeLio ⁠@Anfieldobservor⁠ או ⁠@Messihadist_⁠
⁠@LeoMessiFanClub⁠

[Eli Berenshtein @elliboops]

England scored one, parked the bus, and stopped playing. Nobody wants to see that kind of football win.

Then, Lionel Messi, at almost 39 years old, delivers two assists—including a second-half beauty with his weaker right foot—to seal the comeback for Argentina. absolute genius!

People always say refs favor Argentina, and honestly, maybe there's some truth to it. But who wouldn't want to favor the GOAT? He’s given us so many moments of pure joy, no matter his age. The undisputed greatest of all time, by a mile. 🐐🇦🇷

[Eli Berenshtein @elliboops]

In the Spain vs. France match, there was also a clear foul committed right on the penalty box line against a French player.

Under the current dry laws, this is technically a penalty, because the location of the foul determines the outcome, not the position of the ball.

In this case, the referee whistled nothing at all, which unfairly punished France. Yet, had they awarded a penalty, it would have been incredibly harsh—handing out a massive 80% xG gift that severely over-punishes Spain for a non-dangerous situation.

The logical solution, even with the foul occurring inside the box, is to award a direct free-kick just outside the area. This keeps the game balanced: France gets a fair set-piece opportunity, and Spain is held accountable for a clear foul.
It's time to eliminate this extreme all-or-nothing lottery.

Let's adopt a Graded Penalty System to make football fair and proportional! ⚽

[Lyli @LyliJones]

J'ai pas compris pourquoi y'avait pas penalty et je me suis sentie bien seule à gueuler et voir personne réagir même sur le terrain... J’ai compris qu’on avait bien bien FF

[Eli Berenshtein @elliboops]

@iamsrt haha that’s true. still a great player though 😄

[Eli Berenshtein @elliboops]

Spain hasn’t registered a single shot on target against France, yet they are gifted an 80% xG penalty out of absolutely nothing. It is deciding the game on a non-scoring situation, not to mention a clear handball by Yamal during the buildup to gain control.

This is exactly why football rules are broken. It’s too binary. We need a Graded Penalty System:

1️⃣ Standard Penalty (11m): ONLY if a foul denies a direct, active goal-scoring opportunity (attacker facing goal, in motion to shoot).
2️⃣ Distant Penalty (14-15m): For borderline/reckless fouls that don't deny a 100% clear chance. Gives the GK a fighting chance.
3️⃣ Edge-of-Box Free Kick: For soft fouls or back-to-goal situations. No more free gifts.

And the ultimate balancer: The player fouled must take the kick.

Stop deciding massive tournaments on technicalities. Let the players play!!!

To be clear: Under my proposal, Spain's incident today is a clear Option 3 (Edge-of-Box Free Kick). Furthermore, we must fix the absurd handball rule—any contact that advances an attacker's advantage, even if accidental or close-body, should be penalized.

The current binary penalty rule is completely illogical and should have been scrapped years ago.

Just look at other sports: In basketball, if you foul a player in the paint, they get 2 free throws to potentially score 2 points. It’s proportional. They don’t get awarded 20 free throws just because the foul happened inside the key.

Yet in football, a minor, zero-threat trip at the edge of the box is rewarded with a penalty kick—turning a 3% scoring chance into an 80% free gift. It’s the equivalent of giving a basketball team 15 free throws for a common foul. The punishment is completely disconnected from the crime.

It’s time to bring mathematical proportion and logic back to football

[Eli Berenshtein @elliboops]

There was another incident with Yamal—a rough push and pull. Under today’s rules, it’s all-or-nothing again. One ref gives a PK, while another thinks: "I already gave them one penalty, a second is overkill

A Graded Penalty system removes this BS. The ref could simply call the foul and award a free-kick, instead of being forced to choose between ignoring a clear foul or ruining the game with an 80% xG gift.

[D_fg @14_flying_dutch]

Ya dije hace tiempo que se había normalizado el uso de los brazos para defender y era lamentable.

No es legal, esto es penalti.

Los brazos no se pueden usar para quitarte de encima un jugador, la cavajalinha se disfrazaba de carga pero esto...?

[Eli Berenshtein @elliboops]

@jerometoby3 hey sure, what was in the highlights before the penalty that affected the game?
nothing

[Eli Berenshtein @elliboops]

The last thing I want is to reward defending fouls, Jose! The goal is to make the game about player skill, not luck over soft micro-calls.

We can easily support attackers with better, much-needed rules—like giving them a slight offside margin (e.g., a foot’s width) to allow tons of real goals that are currently disallowed.

Contrast those real goals with cheap PK gifts for minor, non-dangerous fouls (like France vs. Paraguay). Proportional punishments mean more real open-play goals, fewer unearned gifts, and way less frustration for fans, players, and coaches!

[Eli Berenshtein @elliboops]

original was blocked, you can watch it here:

https://t.co/FUMdgOm7K1

[Eli Berenshtein @elliboops]

Here is another perfect example to illustrate my point. In the recent France vs. Paraguay match, France played brilliantly but just couldn’t find the back of the net—until they were handed that penalty gift. Let’s be honest, Paraguay's performance was so tough to watch that even half of their own fans probably didn't mind! 😅

But looking at the bigger picture: we have to stop giving away massive gifts for situations with near-zero scoring probability.

Take an attacker with their back to goal, actively trying to dribble out of the box, who gets tripped up. Yes, it’s a foul. But under current rules, it’s an automatic 80% xG penalty. Under my proposal, that’s a clear Option 3: an edge-of-the-box free kick. No more free gifts for non-scoring situations.

What do you guys think?

[Eli Berenshtein @elliboops]

Great to see we think alike! I actually thought about shrinking the box too.
But since those physical white lines have been drawn globally for decades (God knows why they went with those exact dimensions back then), changing them feels practically impossible.
That’s why I went with a subtler approach by pitching a rule change instead. The main goal is just to end the current absurdity!

[Eli Berenshtein @elliboops]

Sure, why stop there? Let's make every minor contact in the box a penalty, an automatic red card, and a €1M check to the fouled player. After all, it’s a punishment, right?

Joking aside, it’s all about proportion. In a sport where scoring a goal is so incredibly hard, the punishment has to fit the crime. Right now, the binary system is just too extreme.

[Eli Berenshtein @elliboops]

@Ana10082670 Spain was by far the better team and fully deserved the win.

I wrote the post right after the penalty was awarded. Up until that 30th minute, it was a very tight game with zero shots on target from either side.

And spoke about the general penalty rules

[Eli Berenshtein @elliboops]

In such a close match, awarding an 80% xG penalty out of nowhere feels way too harsh. Psychologically, it's incredibly tough to recover from that when you know how hard it is to create a real open-play chance.

Under current rules, it was a penalty. But that's exactly what I want to change—the binary rule itself, not the fact that Spain deserved to win.

[Eli Berenshtein @elliboops]

@josecanciani 100% agree with you, Jose! Spain was by far the better team and fully deserved the win.

I wrote the post right after the penalty was awarded. Up until that 30th minute, it was a very tight game with zero shots on target from either side.

[Eli Berenshtein @elliboops]

@OxSJenny They definitely saw it, they aren't blind 🙈

The current rules actually allow an accidental handball (with the arm close to the body) by an attacking player, as long as they don't score a goal directly from it. The refs just followed the book and let play go on.

[Eli Berenshtein @elliboops]

Exactly! The fact that you have to bend the rules (like moving the contact outside) just to keep the game fair proves how broken the system is. You're trapped between awarding a massive 80% xG gift or ignoring a foul altogether.

When refs have to bypass the law to protect the game, the law has to change.

Join me in pushing for a Graded Penalty System—let's change this for the better! ⚽

[Eli Berenshtein @elliboops]

Should football replace the binary penalty system with a Graded Penalty System (where soft/distant fouls don't get 80% xG gifts)?

[Eli Berenshtein @elliboops]

An 'obvious' penalty shouldn't apply here. Yamal was far from goal and used his hand to control the ball in the buildup. In a logical world, any handball by an attacker that helps them gain possession should be blown dead immediately

Even if we ignore the handball, and agree it was a foul, awarding a full 11m penalty (80% xG) at the very edge of the box is completely disproportionate. Under a better system, this would be a Category 2 (Distant Penalty) or a free kick. We need to stop deciding massive, tight games on random penalty gifts

[Eli Berenshtein @elliboops]

Exactly. First 30 minutes, not a single shot on target from either side. Why hand out an 80% goal gift?

And the handball rule makes zero sense here. If Yamal had scored directly after that handball, it would have been disallowed. But because he won a penalty instead, it stands.

The rules literally create a loophole where it’s smarter for a player to go down and search for a penalty rather than trying to score open play. It’s completely broken

[Eli Berenshtein @elliboops]

Paul got my point exactly. I’m not denying it's a penalty under current rules (setting aside the handball in the buildup).

My argument is about the system being too binary. Even if the foul itself wasn't minor, when you factor in the handball in the buildup and the location at the edge of the box, awarding an 80% goal opportunity is a disproportionate reward.

Right now, referees have no middle ground to deal with this—it's all or nothing, meaning one side is always going to be left rightfully frustrated. The system needs to change so the punishment actually fits the crime