ELON PRIVATE CHAT

From rockets to robots 🚀🤖 From energy to ideas ⚡🧠 Momentum unmatched 🔥

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

They always use defensible excuses for the indefensible

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Make our Sun sentient to understand the Universe and extend the light of consciousness to the stars

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

But for some reason, ID is banned for voting in California, New York and many other states

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@XFreeze SpaceX has over 10,000 satellites in orbit, which is vastly more than everyone else combined, so we are familiar with the subject

[Laila Cunningham @policylaila]

My 17-year-old daughter:
“I’m confused. We’ve always been taught not to share personal information or anything that identifies us online because it isn’t safe. Now they want us to do exactly that to access social media.”

[Andrew Milich @milichab]

Use your SuperGrok or X @premium subscription inside Warp

[Rothmus 🏴 @Rothmus]

The welfare state has been more destructive to the black family than slavery just by restructuring the incentives.

In 1960, nearly a century after emancipation, only about 22% of black children grew up in single-parent households.

By 1990, after the Great Society welfare expansions, that number had more than tripled.

Thomas Sowell has long shown this wasn’t the lingering shadow of slavery or some vague “legacy.”
The destruction of the black family was the direct result of welfare policies that subsidized single motherhood and penalized marriage.

The incentives changed, and family structure collapsed accordingly.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Interesting analysis

[Starlink @Starlink]

In Chile’s remote southern mountains, Starlink is providing reliable connectivity to a helicopter business for critical missions 🛰️🚁 → https://t.co/NAj9PtLHS9

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Indeed

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Tesla AI chip design engineering reviews are so great! Team is awesome.

Our AI6 chip might set a record for most amount of usable intelligence from a wafer when factoring in yield.

[Aaron Burnett @aaronburnett]

There has been a lot of hand wringing on the appropriate valuation of SpaceX. Some large institutions believe SpaceX can only be valued at half what the market seems to be willing to pay for it. Others are claiming it has 15X appreciation ahead of it.

Almost all of this difference of opinion comes down to how comfortable you are modeling beyond 2030 and what valuation method you use.

2030 valuation using a traditional Gordan DCF produces a very different result than a 2040 EV/EBITDA Multiple. Both have pros and cons. Most analysts don’t really discuss this and lead with a headline number.

We are very comfortable modeling out to 2040, as large portions of what SpaceX is proposing is real world infrastructure, which provides modelable physics constraints to anchor against.

The analysis we released today explores this in-depth, its open to the public all the way through IPO. I highly encourage you check it out prior to then.
https://t.co/McShCl78uo

We’ve run 5,000 monte carlo runs across 500 variables (real number, even though it sounds fake) and three valuation methods.

This video is of a 3D cloud chart showing every simulation outcome expected in valuation output across two of the most impactful variables to the model when using an EV/EBITDA multiple from 2026 to 2040.

The horizontal axis is the steepness of the orbital data center demand S-curve.

The vertical axis is the rate at which chip compute efficiency becomes cheaper.

Each of the 5,000 dots is one simulated future; green dots are the ones where SpaceX's 2040 value clears the $1.77T IPO line, over time.

Under EV/EBITDA valuation through 2040, 96% of our simulated futures clear the expected IPO price once the bell rings Friday.

We aren’t publishing this publicly to tell investors what the stock is worth, we’re publishing this to help investors understand the world of outcomes, what the fundamentals suggest through 2040, and what frankly most analysis simply won’t share.

SpaceX is a generational company working on long term infrastructure harnessing a domain no one has been able to tap in so far: space.

It deserves doing the work as an investor. because this in not financial advice.

The cleanest way to hold SpaceX is a bond stapled to a call option (AI-Compute); Starlink is the bond, the near term SatCom annuity that funds the next flywheel.

Understand the world of outcomes and take your position accordingly.

Comparables and P/E won't take you far enough.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

The magnitude & brazen nature of the government payment fraud is staggering

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Reminder that Grok Build is iterating extremely fast and we are highly responsive to critical feedback.

Fixes & upgrades are dropping every day.

[X Freeze @XFreeze]

Elon Musk on “Suicidal Empathy”:
Gad Saad has a good way to describe it

“Suicidal empathy” - where you prey upon people’s empathy so much that it becomes suicidal to your own country and culture

You feel sorry for the criminals, but show zero empathy for the victims

This is why someone arrested 47 times for violent offenses gets released and then murders somebody

We've become so blindly compassionate toward predators that "we're actually allowing our women to get r@ped and our children to get killed"

We should have empathy. But that empathy must go to the victims - not the criminals

This suicidal empathy has gone too far

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Please help make Grok Build great!

Much appreciated, Elon.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Try it out!

(Partially trained on Colossus 2)

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Beautiful machines in space

[Will Tanner @Will_Tanner_1]

Pictures from a vanished civilization