Elton

Research @AlliumLabs

views are my own; not financial advice

[Elton @eltoniselton]

a sneak peak into our next report on tokenized US funds

> $14.2B total AUM across 48 products
> 8x growth in 24 months (2/3rd in 2026)
> 39,316 distinct holder wallets

top issuers
> Hashnote $2.96B
> Ondo $2.84B
> Franklin Templeton $2.49B
> BlackRock $2.43B

top chains
> Ethereum (50%)
> BNB Chain (22%)
> Stellar $1.31B (9%)

[Elton @eltoniselton]

Full report: https://t.co/EDa7i1zv4s

[Elton @eltoniselton]

this past weekend hyperliquid brent crude was within six cents or 6bps of the cme futures open

10 weeks earlier, during another weekend geopolitical event, hyperliquid brent perps captured only 29% of the move and were $11.90 off the open - still way better than the cme friday close

my bet is the 11x increase in weekend brent perp volume, from $57m to $624m improved cme open accuracy (note the May event has an extra day of weekend trading due to holiday)

as more volume flows into tokenized assets, weekend markets should get increasingly accurate at predicting us market opens as we're already seeing

[Elton @eltoniselton]

@WSJmarkets This is probably why

Full report:

https://t.co/EDa7i1zv4s

https://t.co/NexDekr0b2

[Elton @eltoniselton]

this past weekend hyperliquid brent crude was within six cents or 6bps of the cme futures open

10 weeks earlier, during another weekend geopolitical event, hyperliquid brent perps captured only 29% of the move and were $11.90 off the open - still way better than the cme friday close

my bet is the 11x increase in weekend brent perp volume, from $57m to $624m improved cme open accuracy (note the May event has an extra day of weekend trading due to holiday)

as more volume flows into tokenized assets, weekend markets should get increasingly accurate at predicting us market opens as we're already seeing

[Elton @eltoniselton]

@DegenMack @KobeissiLetter https://t.co/30QK7P3LGl

Sorry about that

[Elton @eltoniselton]

who would have thought half of usdc deposited into Hyperliquid are from US based evm wallets

[Elton @eltoniselton]

@rob__tab @AlliumLabs hmm could be interesting. What onchain data can we use to do the analysis? Wallet holdings?

[Elton @eltoniselton]

@rob__tab Traders on pnl in l30d

Gross notional all open positions

Net notional directional

[Elton @eltoniselton]

the amazing thing about hyperliquid is that you can track smart money to inform your stock trades

I'm tracking the top 50 HIP-3 traders and this is what they're doing:

long US markets, cautious with metals, and bearish on oil/chips

> net long: 62/38 split
> most long: SP500
> also long metals, suggesting some defensive positioning
> Main shorts: crude oil and chipmakers, especially MU, Brent, WTI, and INTC

not financial advice

[Elton @eltoniselton]

@0xlaiyuen Ty! I have live dashboard but you need access to Allium

[Elton @eltoniselton]

@0xcarlisle lmk how it goes. I'm tracking it live as well which is pretty cool, this is just a snapshot

[Elton @eltoniselton]

@ThinkingUSD debatable if fdv is even the right metric
https://t.co/GDtJAAqm12

[Elton @eltoniselton]

How you pick a supply denominator moves a crypto valuation more than most other assumptions.

For hyperliquid:native: same business value we estimate of $25.8B, divided across six candidate supply numbers, produces price targets from $26 (FDV) to $105 (circulating only) / token.

We think FDV is the wrong supply number to anchor the analysis.

In our opinion, using FDV supply is like valuing Apple based on its shares authorized of 50 billion. However, the market values it on the 15 billion currently outstanding.

Crypto should use the same playbook for projects building real businesses.

Let's break down HYPE supply mechanics as an example👇🧵

not financial advice.

[Elton @eltoniselton]

@LeaT_Design @AlliumLabs it's looking that way so far

[Elton @eltoniselton]

brent crude oil is down 8% on hyperliquid since Friday

is the market more optimistic on a peace deal?

[Elton @eltoniselton]

@EricBalchunas agreed, it will distribute access to US markets across the world and 24/7 around the clock

We’re already seeing it in the data

https://t.co/G6d32A4EPm

[ethn @ethanyish]

The 24/7 tokenized equities thesis is playing out:

60% of trading volume happens outside US market hours on Hyperliquid HIP-3

[Elton @eltoniselton]

@HesterPeirce I just put out a report on tokenized equities data insights that might be of interest

https://t.co/DergbiCriH