Ethan Lutske

[Ethan Lutske @ELutske]

@admcrlsn Maybe she has a 45% chance of winning a big EC margin but a 55% of barely losing? Like a baseball team that wins a lot of blowouts and loses one run games so they have losing record even though they scored more runs than they allowed.

[Ethan Lutske @ELutske]

@agraybee Natalie Portman

[Ethan Lutske @ELutske]

@csilverandgold William Jennings Bryan lost three times, and each of his losses were by more than Trumps.

[Ethan Lutske @ELutske]

@agraybee It will be very funny if the tipping point stays this year ends up being left of the popular vote. It was in 2012.

[Ethan Lutske @ELutske]

@drvolts There’s loads of people who say we should be talking about Biden’s age more, but they don’t say what we should be saying about it. Like, he’s old. Yes. Ok. What more would you like me to say about it?

[Ethan Lutske @ELutske]

@NateSilver538 What’s the right proportion…? Whatever makes you feel satisfied in your gut?

[Ethan Lutske @ELutske]

@whstancil It also ignores the fundamental point you have made several times, which is that people’s perception of their *own* economic circumstances are very high. They disapprove of the “landscape” or whatever. If high interest rates were really the thing, why would that not impact both?

[Ethan Lutske @ELutske]

@whstancil It’s all so obviously ad hoc. There are tons of economic data metrics. It’s trivially easy to find a single one that correlates with approval rating at a given time and say “aha! This must be it!” But that’s just silly.

[Ethan Lutske @ELutske]

@drvolts It’s one thing to say “he was insane, he shouldn’t be prosecuted he should be in an institution”. But they aren’t saying that! They are saying “he’s so insane he can’t be held liable, but also we should all vote for him again and he should be President”. Mendacious liars.

[Ethan Lutske @ELutske]

@drvolts The other major problems with this defense are (i) the indictment very explicitly makes a point of noting he did *not* believe it, that’s the whole reason there’s a fraud charge and (ii) everyone arguing this insanity defense believes he should be elected again!

[Ethan Lutske @ELutske]

@whstancil if you wouldn’t change *your* beliefs about the world based on the change in employment rate, why would you expect a ton of other people to do so organically?

[Ethan Lutske @ELutske]

@whstancil It’s all part of the “voters are dumb” mantra that is shared by both leftists and politicos. Notice they never actually apply these metrics to *themselves*. Would *they* ever vote for a Republican if the economic was doing poorly? Of course not. But “dumb voters” would.

[Ethan Lutske @ELutske]

@LemieuxLGM The fact that a middle aged white male baseball player from Oklahoma went into politics and is a *democrat* is sort of shocking and may be the craziest thing on that whole page. Just demographically speaking.

[Ethan Lutske @ELutske]

@whstancil There’s just no good explanation for why garland waited 22 months to appoint smith. If he’d been appointed early in 2021 that would have been fine. He wasn’t.

[Ethan Lutske @ELutske]

@gelliottmorris These numbers add up to way, way more than 100 - isn’t that the biggest problem?

[Ethan Lutske @ELutske]

@whstancil There’s also no clear explanation of why anyone cares. Even if it’s true…so what? What’s the next sentence? Is there an implied action or response or is it just looking for a human to blame?

[Ethan Lutske @ELutske]

@whstancil You’re not wrong, but the Democratic performance in the 2022 elections makes it basically impossible to convince anyone in power to actually change course.

[Ethan Lutske @ELutske]

@whstancil Who is arguing the concern diminishes? The argument is that there’s not a better alternative - and you haven’t even bothered to propose one. Every candidate has flaws, you pick the best one, and you don’t self-flagellate along the way if it doesn’t do anything useful.

[Ethan Lutske @ELutske]

@whstancil People see it as concern trolling when no alternative is presented. What would you like to see happen?

[Ethan Lutske @ELutske]

@Taniel When will the late-arriving ballots be counted?