EM Fin

Constantly consume geo-pol news for no discernible reason; Trade EM bonds during the day; Watch G10 rates stay violently unchanged like normal people watch 🐦s

[EM Fin @EM28Fin]

@mazzenilsson Shifts the narrative away from Lebanon and Iran?

[EM Fin @EM28Fin]

That’s because the Qataris have taken their job 😉

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Good god, Pakistani sources now saying far apart, what universe am I in?

[EM Fin @EM28Fin]

@AmericaFirstCon @GeromanAT Theoretically you could have intercepted all incoming and also have inadvertently hit the airport with one of your own interceptors, in which case you can correctly claim to have intercepted everything, and the Iranian claim of not targeting the airport would also be true 😂

[EM Fin @EM28Fin]

🤔 Hard to see Trump resign, but everyone’s entitled to their opinion 🤷‍♂️

Eh? Oh, he meant Iran? 🤣 Well, if you don’t mind everyone dropping nukes on each other then possible 🫨

[Just Another Pod Guy @TMTLongShort]

@rev_cap Will be surprised if the current regime is still in place by next weekend

[EM Fin @EM28Fin]

@TexasOncologist @BlacklionCTA @waveryder91 @hotpotato3141 The current impasse in the Strait suits Russia just fine as long as Ukraine is unresolved. Longer-term when oil and gas pipeline capacity from Russia to China is enhanced, China become even less dependent on Hormuz, their exports to GCC can land at Omani ports or Yanbu.

[EM Fin @EM28Fin]

@TexasOncologist @BlacklionCTA @waveryder91 @hotpotato3141 Their rocket fuel has been coming from China, yes, and likely much other materiel as well. However, Russia could fill the gap? They ship them direct via the Caspian. Upcoming Xi-Putin meeting going to be an interesting one, unfortunately none of us will know what they decided.

[EM Fin @EM28Fin]

@PaulAbiNasr @TankerTrackers H/t @HFI_Research and @TankerTrackers

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

20 VLCCs + onshore storage capacity of 50 million bbls is roughly 53 days at 1.7 million b/d of export volume.

[EM Fin @EM28Fin]

He wasn’t targeting the New York Post 🤣 ? Glad we cleared that up 😅

[Al Arabiya English @AlArabiya_Eng]

US Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche says he believes that the alleged White House Correspondents’ Dinner shooter was targeting Trump administration officials.

https://t.co/88Q9VHzeG8

[EM Fin @EM28Fin]

@briangobosox @rev_cap I don’t know if it’s ceteris paribus compared to 2019-20, but the regime might be operating on this 👇 assumption 🤷‍♂️

[Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman]

We know the blockade won't collapse Iran's economy because it has been tried before... by Trump!

Iranian crude oil exports fell to zero during the second half of 2019, storage filled up, and Iran rolled back production of both crude oil and refined fuels by about half. Meanwhile, Iran was experiencing significant supply chain disruptions, job losses, and demand contraction because of the COVID-19 pandemic. It was a multi-faceted crisis, not unlike the one facing the country today.

Even so, the economy limped along for about a year until oil exports began a slow recovery. Today oil production is back at the pre-sanction levels.

The blockade was never going to cause enough pain in a short enough time to tilt negotiations in Trump's favor. Things are pretty evenly poised and that is exactly why a deal is possible.

[EM Fin @EM28Fin]

@MerrynSW May I recommend a Black Americano as you have one less question to answer. Except at FCB Coffee in Paddington Station, where you order a Black Americano and get a White 50% of the time. Come to think of it, this might actually work well for you. They don’t ask for names either.

[EM Fin @EM28Fin]

@policytensor The diplomatic game - subtle or otherwise - is borne out of financial necessity. China are another benefactor and that’s for alternate sea access and ofc to maintain pressure on India. This multitude of benefactors does not seem to have brought solvency.

[Steve Hanke @steve_hanke]

#PakWatch🇵🇰: Saudi Arabia and Qatar just announced another $5B bailout package for Pakistan. This is the 5th major bailout since 1998.

Pakistan passes the begging bowl again. Why wouldn’t it? It seems to work.

FREE IMRAN KHAN.

[EM Fin @EM28Fin]

@bneeditor The ticker on the bottom right says Crude Oil 300.

[EM Fin @EM28Fin]

@moreproteinbars @agnostoxxx Oh 😢, they should delivered it into your pool 😂

[EM Fin @EM28Fin]

@moreproteinbars @agnostoxxx Arbing physical vs paper markets 🔥 Who’s the loser who delivered physical ? 😂

(Yes, ok, I guess the OP was an April’s fool joke).

[EM Fin @EM28Fin]

@momchev12 Ah ok 👍

[EM Fin @EM28Fin]

@momchev12 Ofc it’s no secret the EU have pushed back on the Iran war even with Trump’s goading about NATO, so it’s curious why JD is even bringing this up now ? 🤔

[EM Fin @EM28Fin]

@momchev12 EU nations to JD “Thank you Mr. Vice-President, but look, that’s what we are doing now! Better late than never, right?”

[Bachar EL-Halabi | بشار الحلبي @Bacharelhalabi]

#Iraq may be the single biggest economic casualty of the Hormuz crisis.

While Arab Gulf producers can reroute some exports (#SaudiArabia, #UAE), rely on storage and deep pockets (#Kuwait, #Qatar), Iraq’s oil system was built around one reality: Basra exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

And those exports are now gone. Iraqis have their political elite to blame. 🧵

(1) Before the war, Iraq produced ~4.4mn b/d and exported about 3.4mn b/d from its southern terminals.

When shipping through Hormuz stopped, Iraqi exports collapsed within 2–3 days, according to a video statement by the oil minister on Sunday.

He said, Iraq today is producing only ~1.5–1.6mn b/d, mostly to run refineries and power plants. My assessment is even lower ~1.2mn b/d.

(2) In other words: Iraq has shut in roughly 3mn b/d of production.
That is not just a supply shock for the market.

It is a fiscal shock for Iraq itself.
Oil revenues account for ~90% of government income.

(3) Baghdad is now scrambling for alternatives.

The only serious route left is the Kirkuk–Turkey pipeline to Ceyhan, which runs through the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region.

Baghdad says it could quickly export ~300k b/d from federal fields, plus ~200k b/d from Kurdish fields.
But the pipeline is idle.

(4) Enter now the political crisis.

Baghdad says the KRG refused to restart exports, accusing Erbil of attaching to the negotiations conditions unrelated to oil.

The Kurdish government fired back hours later.

This is a two-decade old dispute. Their response is extraordinary.

(5) The KRG says exports cannot resume because:

• oil production in Kurdistan has halted after militia attacks on energy fields
• Baghdad imposed a “suffocating economic blockade” on Erbil
• the same militias attacking Kurdish energy infrastructure are funded and armed from Baghdad

(6) This is not a logistics dispute.
It is a full political breakdown between Baghdad and Erbil in the middle of the worst energy crisis Iraq has faced in decades.

And all of this is unfolding while Iran-aligned militias are launching drones and missiles across Iraqi territory, including inside Kurdistan.

(7) So the situation today is unprecedented:

• Iraq cannot export its oil from the south because of Iran
• the northern export route is politically blocked
• production is being shut down across major fields
• Iran-aligned militias are attacking energy infrastructure inside the country

(8 The irony is brutal and Baghdad might’ve overplayed its hand in previous months dragging its feet to re-open the Ceyhan pipeline, while delaying budgetary allocations to the KRG and salary payments to civil servants.

Iraq is paying the economic cost of a war it did not start and cannot control, while armed factions inside the country have dragged it into.

(9) If exports remain halted, Iraq will face a simple reality:

A state whose budget depends almost entirely on oil… without oil revenue.

This is a recipe for serious internal upheaval.

#oott

[Current Report @Currentreport1]

BREAKING:

France has officially rejected Trump's request, saying it will not send warships to the Strait of Hormuz

[EM Fin @EM28Fin]

@STANISKRAPIVNIK @grok https://t.co/9L2dmABN6R

[Grok @grok]

No, this is not true. No credible news outlets or official sources report any Naxalite attack, explosion, or fire at a drone facility in Delhi. Naxal activity is limited to remote rural areas in central India, and the govt is on track to end it by March 31, 2026 per recent statements. This seems like unverified misinformation spreading on X.

[EM Fin @EM28Fin]

@STANISKRAPIVNIK When first posted by another account @grok outed it as AI generated.