Esther Meininghaus

Senior Researcher, BICC. PhD Middle Eastern Studies. War and peacemaking, humanitarian aid, local concepts, and autocracy. Tweets my own.

[Saul Staniforth @SaulStaniforth]

Yesterday Israel ordered the inhabitants of Nabiteh to leave (population of 100,000) They then ordered the inhabitants of Tyre to leave (pop of 200,000). Now they've ordered the entire south to leave - up to 300 towns & villages.

@AlexCrawfordSky reporting from Lebanon today

[ACLED @ACLEDINFO]

Israeli forces have carried out over 100 events of property destruction targeting critical infrastructure across southern #Lebanon since the 17 April ceasefire. Our latest map shows damage concentrated within the Yellow Line: https://t.co/xhvdV7lnTC

[Rana Ayyub @RanaAyyub]

Absolute must read. You don’t just need gas chambers to commit genocide. Level the homes, poison the water, erase the hospitals��make human survival impossible.

“All they will find is sand” isn’t a metaphor, it’s a strategic plan to erase a civilisation

https://t.co/Te4qTbBE4e

[Nizar Hassan || نزار حسن @Nizhsn]

In Lebanon alone, and in 35 days only

[American University of Beirut Medical Center @AUBMC_Official]

AUBMC Blood Bank is currently in need of all blood groups.
We welcome donors every day from 8:00 am to 4:00 pm.
Your donation can make a difference.

يُعلن بنك الدم في المركز الطبي في الجامعة الأميركية في بيروت عن حاجته إلى جميع فصائل الدم.

نرحّب بالمتبرعين يوميًا من الساعة 8:00 صباحًا حتى الساعة 4:00 بعد الظهر.

بتبرّعكم يمكن أن تُحدِثوا فرقًا.

[Adil Haque @AdHaque110]

It seems we just bombed some residential buildings in an attempt to kill a former diplomat who was trying to facilitate negotiations.

A civilian trying to *end* hostilities, surrounded by other civilians in their homes.

We are completely lost.

[Esther Meininghaus @EMeininghaus]

The German gvmt announces it will participate in military strikes against Iran if necessary to defend its interests. It denounces Iranian missile attacks as 'disproportionate'. It does not denounce US attacks on Iran, although they constitute a war of aggression.

[Peter Girnus 🦅 @gothburz]

I am a diplomatic aide in the Sultanate of Oman's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

My job is logistics. When two countries that cannot speak to each other need to speak to each other, I book the rooms. I prepare the briefing materials. I make sure the water glasses are the right distance apart. You would be surprised how much of diplomacy is water glasses. Too close and it feels informal. Too far and it feels like a tribunal. I have a chart.

We had a very good month.

Since January, Oman has been mediating indirect talks between the United States and Iran on Iran's nuclear program. The talks were held in Muscat and in Geneva. The Americans would sit in one room. The Iranians would sit in another room. I would walk between them. My Fitbit says I averaged fourteen thousand steps on negotiation days. The hallway between the two rooms at the Royal Opera House conference center is forty-seven meters. I walked it two hundred and twelve times in February. This is good for my cardiovascular health. It was less good for my knees. Both are in the service of peace.

By mid-February, we had something.

Iran agreed to zero stockpiling of enriched uranium. Not reduced stockpiling. Zero. They agreed to down-blend existing stockpiles to the lowest possible level. They agreed to convert them into irreversible fuel. They agreed to full IAEA verification with potential US inspector access. They agreed, in the Foreign Minister's phrase, to "never, ever" possess nuclear material for a bomb. I have worked in diplomacy for seven years. I have never seen a country agree to this many things this quickly. I made a spreadsheet of the concessions. It had fourteen rows. I color-coded it. Green for confirmed. Yellow for pending. By February 21 the spreadsheet was entirely green. I printed it. It is on my desk in Muscat. It is still green.

That phrase took eleven days. "Never, ever." The Iranians initially offered "not seek to." The Americans wanted "will not under any circumstances." We landed on "never, ever" at 2:14 AM on a Tuesday in Muscat. I typed the final version myself. I used Times New Roman because Geneva prefers it. The document was fourteen pages. I was proud of every comma.

Here is what they said, in the order they said it.

February 24: "We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity." — The Foreign Minister, private briefing to Gulf Cooperation Council ambassadors. I prepared the slide deck. Slide 14 was the implementation timeline. Slide 15 was the signing ceremony logistics. I had reserved the Palais des Nations in Geneva, Room XX. It seats four hundred. We discussed pen brands for the signing. The Iranians preferred Montblanc. The Americans had no preference. I ordered twelve Montblanc Meisterstucks at six hundred and thirty dollars each. They arrive on Tuesday.

February 27, 8:30 AM EST: "The deal is within our reach." — The Foreign Minister, CBS Face the Nation. He sat across from Margaret Brennan. He said broad political terms could be agreed "tomorrow" with ninety days for technical implementation in Vienna. He said, and I wrote this line for the briefing card he carried in his breast pocket: "If we just allow diplomacy the space it needs." He praised the American envoys by name. Steve Witkoff. Jared Kushner. He said both had been constructive.

I watched from the Four Seasons Georgetown. The minibar had cashews. I ate the cashews. They were nineteen dollars. The most expensive cashew I have ever eaten. But it was a good morning and we were within our reach.

February 27, 2:00 PM EST: Meeting with Vice President Vance, Washington. The Foreign Minister presented our progress. Zero stockpiling. Full verification. Irreversible conversion. "Never, ever." The Vice President used the word "encouraging." His aide took notes on an iPad. The aide did not make eye contact for the last nine minutes of the meeting. I noticed this. Noticing things is the only part of my job that is not water glasses.

February 27, 4:00 PM EST: "Not happy with the pace." — President Trump, to reporters.

Not happy with the pace.

We had achieved zero stockpiling. Full IAEA verification. Irreversible fuel conversion. Inspector access. And the phrase "never, ever," which took eleven days and cost me two hundred and twelve trips down a forty-seven-meter hallway.

Every American president since Carter has failed to get Iran to agree to this. Forty-five years.

Not happy with the pace.

February 27, 9:47 PM EST: The Foreign Minister's flight departs Dulles for Muscat. I am in the seat behind him. He is reviewing Slide 14 on his laptop. The implementation timeline. Vienna technical sessions. The signing ceremony. The pens.

I fall asleep over the Atlantic. I dream about water glasses.

February 28, 6:00 AM GST: I wake up to push notifications.

February 28: "The United States has begun major combat operations in Iran." — President Trump.

Operation Epic Fury. Coordinated airstrikes. The United States and Israel. Tehran. Isfahan. Qom. Karaj. Kermanshah. Nuclear facilities. IRGC bases. Sites near the Supreme Leader's office. Israel called their half Operation Roaring Lion. Someone in both governments spent time choosing these names. Epic Fury. Roaring Lion. I spent eleven days on "never, ever." They spent it on branding. The President said Iran had "rejected American calls to halt its nuclear weapons production."

Rejected.

Iran had agreed to zero stockpiling. Iran had agreed to full verification. Iran had agreed to "never, ever." Iran had agreed to everything in a fourteen-page document that I typed in Times New Roman.

The President said they rejected it.

I do not know which document the President was reading. I know which one I typed.

February 28, 18:45 UTC: Iran internet connectivity: four percent. — NetBlocks, confirmed by Cloudflare. Ninety-six percent of a country went dark. You cannot negotiate with a country at four percent connectivity. You cannot negotiate with a country that is being struck. You cannot negotiate. This is not a political opinion. This is a logistics assessment.

February 28: The governor of Minab reported forty girls killed at an elementary school.

I do not have logistics for that. There is no slide for that. The water glass chart does not cover that.

February 28: Lockheed Martin: up. Northrop Grumman: up. RTX: up. Dow futures: down six hundred and twenty-two points. Gold: five thousand two hundred and ninety-six dollars. An analyst at AInvest published a note titled "Iran Strikes: Tactical Plays." The note recommended positions in oil, defense stocks, and gold.

The most expensive cashew I have ever eaten was nineteen dollars. The most expensive pen I have ever ordered was six hundred and thirty dollars. The math suggests I have been working in the wrong industry. Defense stocks do not require water glasses. Defense stocks do not require eleven days. Defense stocks require one morning.

February 28: Israel closed its airspace and its schools. Iran launched retaliatory missiles toward US bases in the Gulf. The Supreme Leader promised a "crushing response." Israel's defense minister declared a permanent state of emergency. Everyone is using words I recognize in an order I do not. I recognize "permanent." I recognize "emergency." I do not recognize them next to each other. In diplomacy, nothing is permanent and everything is an emergency. In war it is the reverse.

February 28: The Foreign Minister has not made a public statement.

The briefing card is still in his breast pocket. It still says "within our reach."

[Agnes Callamard @AgnesCallamard]

IDF database suggests 83% of Gaza dead were civilians, contradicting by a huge margin Israel claims of a 1:1 or 2:1 ratio of civilian to militant casualties. Israel’s bombardment of Gaza has killed civilians at a rate with few parallels in modern warfare.
https://t.co/3RwosCcX8v

[Mathieu von Rohr @mathieuvonrohr]

List of aid groups Israel is banning from operating in Gaza as of January 1 (via @AP)

1. Action Against Hunger
2. ActionAid
3. Alianza por la Solidaridad
4. Campaign for the Children of Palestine
5. CARE
6. DanChurchAid
7. Danish Refugee Council
8. Handicap International: Humanity & Inclusion
9. Japan International Volunteer Center
10. Medecins du Monde France
11. Medecins du Monde Switzerland
12. Medecins Sans Frontieres Belgium
13. Medecins Sans Frontieres France
14. Medecins Sans Frontieres Nederland
15. Medicos del Mundo
16. Mercy Corps
17. MSF Spain
18. Norwegian Refugee Council
19. Oxfam Novib
20. Premiere Urgence Internationale
21. Terre des hommes Lausanne
22. International Rescue Committee
23. WeWorld-GVC
24. World Vision International
25. Relief International
26. Fondazione AVSI
27. Movement for Peace-MPDL
28. American Friends Service Committee
29. Medico International
30. Palestine Solidarity Association in Sweden
31. Defense for Children International
32. Medical Aid for Palestinians UK
33. Caritas Internationalis
34. Caritas Jerusalem
35. Near East Council of Churches
36. Oxfam Quebec
37. War Child Holland

[Jan Egeland @NRC_Egeland]

West Bank: Heartbreaking to see Bedouin community housing in ashes.

They were torched by violent Israeli settlers who also stole their livelihoods, and who are diverting the scarce water to their ever-increasing illegal settlments.

Palestinians told us that settler violence is never investigated by the Israeli authorities - they act with total impunity.

[susan abulhawa | سوزان ابو الهوى @susanabulhawa]

nearly 30% of the population of Amsterdam, an estimated quarter of a million people, flood the streets of the city wearing red in solidarity with Palestine.

[Motasem A Dalloul @AbujomaaGaza]

Hamas: We accept Trump’s ceasefire proposal and ready for starting talks on its implementation.

Trump: Hamas accepted the ceasefire plan, and Israel has to immediately stop bombing Gaza.

We in Gaza: Relentless Israeli bombing continuous from sea, ground and air.

[Chris Doyle @Doylech]

It is not that Hamas deserves anything. They committed atrocities for which they should be held accountable. But the fate of over 2 million Palestinians civilians in Gaza should not depend on what Hamas leaders or Netanyahu decide, all of whom should be at the ICC.

[Ihab Hassan @IhabHassane]

More than 1,000 Israeli families have moved to the Gaza border with caravans and tents, preparing to establish settlements in northern Gaza once the Israeli army finishes depopulating Gaza City.

The ethnic cleansing plan to erase Gaza’s population and replace it with Israeli settlers is no longer fringe rhetoric in the Israeli government; it has become official policy.

[Mai El-Sadany @maitelsadany]

In a new agenda-setting document, 61 Syrian victims' groups and civil society orgs have come together to articulate a series of general principles that should inform the pathway for justice, truth, and remedy post-Assad.

Center Syrian voices: https://t.co/NoAWsuwqBf

[Nimer Sultany @NimerSultany]

1. “Children shot in the chest while reaching for food. People crushed or suffocated in stampedes. Entire crowds gunned down at distribution points. In @MSF nearly 54 years of operations, rarely have we seen such levels of systematic violence against unarmed civilians.”

[قناة الجزيرة @AJArabic]

عاجل | المكتب الإعلامي الحكومي بغزة: 197 حالة وفاة بسبب سوء التغذية منذ بدء الحرب بينهم 96 طفلا
#حرب_غزة

[Sharif Abdel Kouddous شريف عبد القدوس @sharifkouddous]

The ministry of health just published its most updated list of Palestinians confirmed killed through July 31 with the with full name, ID number, age, DoB, and gender, of 60,199 people, including the names of 18,430 children. The first 39 pages, the age is 1 year old or less.

[The Syria Campaign @TheSyriaCmpgn]

Today marks 12 years since Father Paolo Dall’Oglio was kidnapped by ISIS in Raqqa.

A mass and gathering were held today at the Monastery of Mar Musa to commemorate his disappearance and to honor his spirit, love, and courage. People came from different places not only to remember him, but to renew their commitment to the idea he embodied: that coexistence is possible, unity is strength, and that Syria needs those who carried the values of the Syrian revolution, even as division and violence continue.

Thousands of families are still searching for their loved ones who remain forcibly disappeared by the Assad regime and all other parties to the conflict. The struggle for truth, justice, and accountability will not stop.

📷 @AliHajSuleiman