Emerging Intelligence

Türkiye, global macro and markets.

[Emerging Intelligence @emergingintel]

🇹🇷💙🧿

[Emerging Intelligence @emergingintel]

🇹🇷 29 Ekim Cumhuriyet Bayramımız kutlu olsun 🇹🇷

[Emerging Intelligence @emergingintel]

- Türkiye carry trade stock decreased to around $35 bn after Brazil, Europe credit moves
- Intl investors trading more FX/TRY than TurkGBs

[Emerging Intelligence @emergingintel]

Always an absolute pleasure to watch @ozanktarman and @berfuguven on CNBC-e. Shoulder to Shoulder making its way to CNBC London studio. 🌎🌍🌏🦚

Highlights 👇

https://t.co/N1DET1fgeS

[Emerging Intelligence @emergingintel]

- Fast Money pulse: concerned that yields + equities lower at the same time. AI correction may come, oil and yields may not move at the same direction
- Real Money to be watched. RM exp 5.35% lvl while exp only 50 bps hike from Fed unlike FM names
- JPY, CHF safe heavens at mom

[Emerging Intelligence @emergingintel]

✍️🎯💯

[Ozan Korman Tarman @ozanktarman]

Touch sensationalist? 😉

​"J.P. Morgan Menkul Değerler's capital market activities were temporarily suspended by a Capital Markets Board (CMB) decision on July 3, 2015. It has not been actively trading since then—for about 11 years. In 2021, they informed the CMB that they would not be able to restart operations. The bank branch is separate and continues to operate."

[Emerging Intelligence @emergingintel]

Unfortunate that below part did not make headlines on BBG:

JPMorgan Istanbul Branch has recently decided to expand its banking activities in Türkiye, and the necessary preparations in this regard are ongoing in coordination with the relevant regulatory authorities.

🇹🇷🇹🇷🇹🇷

[Emerging Intelligence @emergingintel]

Gördüğüm lüzum üzerine JP Morgan Menkul Değerler ifadesini mute’luyorum 🤣

[Emerging Intelligence @emergingintel]

@ozanktarman ✍️🎯👏🙏🧿

[Emerging Intelligence @emergingintel]

Best global macro commentary in Turkish FinTube space with @ozanktarman and @DrKocabalkan right from Deutsche London.
Throwback to Kanal E / OG CNBC-e days.

#PiyasalarOnlariOnlarPiyasalariIzliyor

https://t.co/6GAp3NGVhK

[Emerging Intelligence @emergingintel]

Good night #MyDubai

[Emerging Intelligence @emergingintel]

A great segment on Bloomberg Radio as well on European debt and contagion risks
https://t.co/iHBUUacL1R

[Emerging Intelligence @emergingintel]

Absolute joy to see @ozanktarman join his business family this morning on Bloomberg Surveillance.

Highlights 👇

https://t.co/d0WQmRCuq1

[Emerging Intelligence @emergingintel]

-Real pain trade to be 10Y 5.85% by Halloween and SPX 7400
-Fast move in rates higher to shake things
-Having a Truss Moment in US, UK, Japan and France at the same time and equities doing okay may prove to be a bit complacent
-Credit bears showing up on days like last Thu-Fri

[Emerging Intelligence @emergingintel]

🇹🇷
-CBRT raises SME loans growth limit to 5% from 4.5%
-CBRT lowers the ratios for maintaining TRY required reserves in blocked accounts
-Changes to support macrofinancial stability and banks’ liquidity management

https://t.co/TS7fDjs6k1

[Emerging Intelligence @emergingintel]

I consider this Economist headline as a contrarian indicator, expect the path forward for Turkish equity capital markets to be brighter. 🇹🇷

[The Economist @TheEconomist]

The country could lose its status as an emerging market https://t.co/xe4KeXHLSV

[Emerging Intelligence @emergingintel]

🇹🇷 Türkiye Update 🇹🇷

TRY FX swaps saw some receivers on Friday with the improved global risk sentiment, lower oil prices.
TurkGBs were still weaker, 5Y CDS a touch wider at 250.
Main Turkish equity indices managed to close in positive territory.

[Emerging Intelligence @emergingintel]

🇹🇷 Türkiye Update 🇹🇷

TRY offshore yields went higher in tandem with US yields, with TRY FX swaps failing to catch receivers.
5Y CDS wider by 6 bps.
TurkGBs moved in a bear flattening fashion, 2Y up by 38 bps.
Turkish equities closed lower with XBANK underperforming XUSIN.

[Emerging Intelligence @emergingintel]

🇹🇷 Hazine says the $1.5b long 10Y sustainable offering was more than 3x oversubscribed, attracting demand from over 100 accounts.

Allocs
UK: 32%
US: 30%
Türkiye: 25%
Other Europe: 9%
RoW: 4%

[Emerging Intelligence @emergingintel]

🇹🇷 Hazine hitting screens for $ bench long 10Y offering. IPTs at 7.875%.