I started out training as a doctor, becoming an infectious diseases physician. Then my love of maths drew me in to work on modelling infectious disease.
Australia is now in winter and has up to 50 COVID deaths per day and high pressure on the health system. Everyone who can should have a flu shot. Everyone who can should have received a COVID vaccine within the last 6 months. The evidence is clear.
It's time to stop mandatory mask wearing. People are not wearing masks properly anyway. It is time to give the community a break. Wear a mask if you want to reduce your personal risk.
@beneb77 @IRUAustralia@AITropHealthMed@jcu this is not something I can answer for you. I think the main issue here is ensuring she does not pass COVID on to anyone else, if she gets it, and enuring you can be with her while she is at the end of her life. Emma
JCU scientists have developed a new model to track the #Covid pandemic – and it’s telling them Australia should now prioritise delivering the Pfizer vaccine to 12-40 year-olds.
https://t.co/kWd9zBXWKW
"We also need to compare old assumptions about COVID and children with what we are now seeing in reality." Prof @emma_mcbryde from @AITropHealthMed at IRU member @jcu says children aged 12 and over must be vaccinated with high priority.
https://t.co/xpjjDGIDIb
Do you have a background in quantitative science or a biological background with an aptitude in maths? @AITropHealthMed@jcu has PhD scholarships available in infectious diseases modelling.
https://t.co/koI2ItZJ55
The @AITropHealthMed award-winning Cohort Doctoral Studies Program @JCU is celebrating 10 years of developing and supporting new health and medical researchers in #NorthQueensland with a 3-day conference. Register here: https://t.co/9MtsojlbGD
Almost 60 @jcu medical students will be the first to deliver the jab in Queensland, at the Smithfield campus hub 💉 Meet the team tonight at 5:30pm on @WINNews_CNS@qldhealthnews@CairnsHHS
@Bruce_Bradbury @apatrickafr the main difference is that the Doherty modelling fixes the R_eff at a single value, 3.6, which assumes a lot of public health action is continuing. My group has built a tool -publically available - that can explore the impact of many different values for R_eff, we examine 3,5,7
@HiJayD yes, but it is most sensitive to this parameter. Of course efficacy of vaccine matters hugely, but we have trial results for some of the vaccine-related parameters, and observational studies for others. Good point about unconsidered variables -e.g. pockets of v. sociable people.
the key difference between the JCU AITHM modelling and the Doherty modelling is that we consider a range of effective reproduction numbers from 3 to 7. The Doherty assume an effective reproduction number before vaccination of 3.6. Unfortunately the results depend on Reff
@emma_mcbryde Assumptions make a massive difference as do other variables both considered and unconsidered.
Miss one key variable and your model's accuracy can be greatly impacted.