Endless760

Blockchain technology enthusiast. Trust transparency.
'Protocols not people' - Bankless

[Endless760 @endless760]

@engineco16 @grok what's the significance of the column collapse?

[Matt Hougan @Matt_Hougan]

The conspiracy theories are wild. First it was Binance and then it was Wintermute and then it was an unknown offshore macro hedge fund and then it was paper bitcoin and. today it is Jane Street and next week it will be someone else.

The real reason bitcoin is down is that a bunch of people who were long Bitcoin sold their Bitcoin exposure. They sold it via spot, they sold it by unwinding leveraged positions, and they sold it be writing calls against their bitcoin.

They sold because of the four year cycle and because of quantum fears and because they wanted to invest in AI start ups and for other reasons.

They are mostly done selling and we are in the process of bottoming. We will set new all time highs in the future.

This is a classic crypto winter and there will be a classic crypto spring. People want someone to blame — I get it — but the reality is far more boring than that.

[Pulte @pulte]

After significant studying, and in keeping with President Trump’s vision to make the United States the crypto capital of the world, today I ordered the Great Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to prepare their businesses to count cryptocurrency as an asset for a mortgage.

SO ORDERED

[apsk32 @apsk32]

Bitcoin bubbles have followed a four-year cycle. I believe these were initially driven by the significant impact that issuance rate step changes had on available supply.

Today, more than 19.8 million of the 21 million total Bitcoin have already been mined. Last cycle, in 2021, many of us believed the four-year pattern would end, but it didn’t. Instead, we saw a double top, with the second peak occurring late in 2021, the post-halving year.

If the four-year cycle were to repeat once more, we would expect it to occur sometime in November or December of this year.

Bitcoin doesn’t exist in a vacuum. It’s now a trillion-dollar asset, and more accessible to traditional markets than ever before.

Given the diminishing impact of Bitcoin halvings and the asset’s growing maturity, I doubt the four-year cycle will repeat without a favorable macro environment.

Fortunately, if the global money supply continues to increase (as it is now) and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rates become less restrictive, I think stocks could close out 2025 with strength.

If that happens, I’d expect Bitcoin to outperform, setting us up for a strong Q4 2025. I still believe that Bitcoin will reach $200k+ later this year.

In the plot, I compare Bitcoin's past cycle prices with 2025 using a power curve fit to scale past prices. I'll drop an animation that explains the scaling in this thread.

I’ve compared 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2025 below.

2013, a year of gradual recovery:
Financial conditions were improving but fragile, with low growth, inflation, and rates, a strong stock market, and a recovering but weak labor market.

2017, a peak expansion year:
Conditions were strong, with moderate growth, manageable inflation, rising rates, a bullish stock market, and a healthy labor market—near the peak of the post-recession expansion.

2021, a stimulus-charged rebound:
Financial conditions were exceptionally loose, with high growth, rising inflation, low rates, a booming stock market, and a recovering labor market—a stimulus-driven peak.

2025, a stabilization period:
Conditions are tighter than prior years, with moderate growth, controlled inflation, elevated rates, a volatile stock market, and a stable labor market—a cautious stabilization phase.

S&P500
2013: 29.6%
2017: 19.4%
2021: 26.9%
2025: -4.4% YTD

Federal Funds Rate
2013, October: 0.09
2017, October: 1.3
2021, October: 0.08
2025, January: 4.33

U.S. M2 % Change
2013: 5.5%
2017: 4.8%
2021: 12.6%
2025: 0.06% (January)

U.S. Inflation YoY
2013, October: 1.5%
2017, October: 2.1%
2021, October: 7%
2025, January: 2.8%

U.S. Unemployment Rate
2013, October: 6.7%
2017, October: 4.1%
2021, October: 3.9%
2025, January: 4.1%

Follow @apsk32

[Endless760 @endless760]

BTC ETFs are the tradfi gateway. Retail, fund managers, 401k, etc. Bullish

[VanEck @vaneck_us]

With bitcoin's surge since $HODL's launch last year, we're executing a 4-for-1 stock split on the VanEck Bitcoin ETF. Shares of HODL will begin trading on the split-adjusted basis at market open on February 14, 2025.
https://t.co/qH1LvqjXls

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Every 4 Years.

[Endless760 @endless760]

@benkellyone Portfolio

[Endless760 @endless760]

"By number of raw operations/second, Bitcoin is ~500x more performant than the world's most powerful supercomputer.

Yet, there are skeptics out there that still believe "bitcoin is backed by nothing"."

[Cathie Wood @CathieDWood]

Bitcoin is backed by the largest computer network in the world, a network orders of magnitude larger than the combined size of the clouds that Amazon, Google, and Microsoft have built over the last 15-20 years.

[Endless760 @endless760]

How would 2024 price projections look if... ETH is one cycle behind BTC, and SOL is one cycle behind ETH? Here's Coin Bureau's latest take: https://t.co/6NBfzRGVcq

[Endless760 @endless760]

#SOL got the moves like Jagger (and the price action to match)! ☀️
Although #ETH climbed ~6.5% the past month, #SOL's 30-day is over 80%!

50k foot view:
Ethereum is the market leader & OG settlement layer for DeFi, NFTs and other smart contract Dapps. Front of the pack, atm.

[Endless760 @endless760]

SOL focuses on blazing-fast transactions and low fees. Imagine a sleek racetrack, perfect for zipping around with your dApps.

So, which is right for you? Which is posed for more growth? Utilize and HODL both?

DYOR before making any investment decisions!

#Solana #Ethereum

[Endless760 @endless760]

BTC ETF approval is long overdue in the US. Finally, and now the race for AUM is on!

[Bitwise @Bitwise]

Today, we are thrilled to announce that the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF $BITB intends to begin trading on 1/11 with a 0% fee through 7/10/24 (on the fund’s first $1B in assets; 0.20% after).

Read the full prospectus & risk disclosures: https://t.co/QBzLCyzkN4

https://t.co/DJI7L1l3DY

[Bitwise @Bitwise]

Today, we are thrilled to announce that the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF $BITB intends to begin trading on 1/11 with a 0% fee through 7/10/24 (on the fund’s first $1B in assets; 0.20% after).

Read the full prospectus & risk disclosures: https://t.co/QBzLCyzkN4

https://t.co/DJI7L1l3DY

[Endless760 @endless760]

SOL or ETH in 2024?

[Solana @solana]

1/🏛️Breaking News: Paxos Expands to Solana

@Paxos, the leading regulated blockchain & tokenization infrastructure platform, will benefit from the high-performance architecture of Solana & plans to offer the USDP stablecoin to the public mid-Jan. 2024.

https://t.co/PkFUByXcXb🧵

[Endless760 @endless760]

WisdomTree, Invesco file for spot ETFs https://t.co/Gzqmyy4aLc

It might appear that WisdomTree is following Blackrock, but this is WisdomTree's 3rd spot Bitcoin ETF attempt (previously 2021, 2022)

[Endless760 @endless760]

Checkout this short article explaining Algorithmic #Stablecoins
#DeFi

[On-Chain Index @ociventures]

Ready to learn more about stablecoins? Part 4 of our stablecoin blog series, covering algorithmic stablecoins, is now live! #crypto #stablecoins #DeFi #cryptocurrency
https://t.co/aH8vFhOPOJ

[On-Chain Index @ociventures]

Crypto: Game-changer or fad? Dive into this exploration of blockchain's potential & challenges. 🔗https://t.co/Jn7AtseUyF #Cryptocurrency #Blockchain #OnChainIndex 🚀🌐💱

[Endless760 @endless760]

Here's what you need to know about Ethereum's next upgrade. How do you think it'll effect ETH staking rates and circulating supply?

[On-Chain Index @ociventures]

Ethereum's Shanghai upgrade is set to revolutionize the blockchain space, enabling faster transactions and improving network security. #Ethereum #Blockchain https://t.co/4ZOBEsh6TW

[Endless760 @endless760]

Understanding how to safely invest in #crypto should be the first thing an investor does. Here's an article that might help.

[On-Chain Index @ociventures]

Let’s take a deep dive into #custodial vs. non-custodial platforms. This blog post explores the various #crypto #investment options vs. custody options in the traditional finance space. https://t.co/t5oUWQcEs0

[Endless760 @endless760]

(3/3)
+ Smart contract kicks back 5% to blockbar for storage and insurance expenses, 5% back to the distiller... No intermediary/distributor fees
+ When ready, burn NFT to get the booze shipped to you!

https://t.co/4tYnzumyN8

[Endless760 @endless760]

(1/3)
I recently learned there's a way to invest liquor and wine on-chain!
🥂
Here are the benefits of buying high-end wine and spirits using @blockbar:

[Endless760 @endless760]

(2/3)
+ Verifiable chain of custody
+ NFT based transactions= No risk of damaging the bottle during transfer of ownership, and easy to resell
+ @blockbar has a direct relationship with distillers and manages storage of bottles = Avoid purchasing counterfeit liquor