Endre Nesset

Norwegian. Everything gambling.

[Endre Nesset @endreliss]

Who should tell them?

[Tengen @0xTengen_]

how to trade football on polymarket smart

great write up by Knight, the math is solid, but the real engine here is crowd psychology

markets think linearly: traders see "70:00" and mentally bury the favorite

but in the VAR era, "90 minutes" is dead. real matches go 100+ mins now

buying a draw at 70' is basically buying time at a 30% discount

execution alpha:

you aren't just betting on a draw, you're buying a comeback option on volatility

once it hits 1-1, the price doesn't just normalize - it skyrockets because the market instantly prices in the favorite's momentum swing

safety checklist:

liquidity is king: if the spread is >3¢, skip it. you'll lose your ev on the entry and exit

no "eye test": trust raw xG only, your eyes will lie and mistake useless possession for real pressure

exit discipline: sell immediately at 1-1, we're trading volatility, not the final whistle

leave the heart attack risk to someone else

[Endre Nesset @endreliss]

IK Start te æ dør

[Endre Nesset @endreliss]

@astraffon @Kalshi Eurovision incoming?!?!

[Endre Nesset @endreliss]

@BradAllenNFL Of course mate

[Endre Nesset @endreliss]

@gamblinglamb Estonia not so expensive :)

[CONMEBOL Libertadores @Libertadores]

🤩🇨🇱 Semana histórica para @ColoColo: alcanzó su triunfo número 1️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ en la CONMEBOL #Libertadores.

🏆⭐ ¡Un campeón que estará en la Fase de Gupos y sueña con la #GloriaEterna!

[Endre Nesset @endreliss]

Very Cool

[Colo-Colo @ColoColo]

🎙 #ConexiónMonumental Presentación de Arturo Vidal.

Mira la conferencia de prensa del regreso de Arturo Vidal al Cacique ¡Conéctate!

📡: https://t.co/opfZkjF7n3

[Endre Nesset @endreliss]

@9imenes @IkStart_ Skulle jo tro de hadde en plan, men når spillerene sender brevet har de jo ikke så mye valg. Håper de får snudd det til noe positivt

[Endre Nesset @endreliss]

@9imenes @IkStart_ Ble ikke styret så godt som skviset ut av spillergruppa? Veldig spesiell situasjon, kan ikke ha pratet så mye sammen på stadion

[Abcpoker @AbcpokerBI]

iGaming-marknaden 2024. Den håller på att förändras sakta men säkert. Allt fokus har 2015-2023 legat på reglering.

Men plötsligt är kanaliseringen svag i ex. Tyskland och Sverige (+högre skatt). Var och varannan influencer affar cryptocasinon.

Grå/svart marknad comeback 2024?

[Endre Nesset @endreliss]

@BigLeagueBI Looks related to odds changes during inplay bet pending time?

[LIV Golf @livgolf_league]

The inaugural LIV Golf Promotions Champion @KalleSamooja! 🏆

#LIVGolf

[Endre Nesset @endreliss]

@BigLeagueBI Market access… expensive

[Daniel Cormier @dc_mma]

Today I am back with the boys, we had a ton of fun like always. But this guy Jamell is out of his mind! We go live in CORMIER’s corner at 6pm eastern/ 3pm pacific. https://t.co/8LRjFtEJpO

[Endre Nesset @endreliss]

@LasseVegas7 @elonmusk .@elonmusk vouch

[Endre Nesset @endreliss]

@BigLeagueBI Trevligt, takk så mye for hyggelige ord

[Endre Nesset @endreliss]

@BradAllenNFL Second biggest moment after the weather source comments. https://t.co/60g3RI9ZDU solid

[Endre Nesset @endreliss]

@BradAllenNFL In Vegas, easy follow

[Endre Nesset @endreliss]

@BradAllenNFL Big fan easy follow!