POL.endymion

[Ken Cao-The China Crash Chronicle @KenCao_onChina]

China Faces $100 Billion Loss From Iranian Oil Shock.

Oil prices have already surged nearly 45% since the Iran conflict escalated, and the ripple effects are just getting started . When energy spikes this fast, it doesn’t just move markets, it squeezes entire economies. And the biggest pressure point right now is China.

China walked into this already weak, with soft consumption and fading external demand. Now add cost-push inflation on top, and you get the worst possible combination: rising costs with no real growth. Around a quarter of Chinese manufacturers are already losing money, so this shock lands right where margins are thinnest .

Here’s where it gets dangerous. Chinese firms don’t have pricing power, so they absorb higher costs instead of passing them on, which means layoffs, wage pressure, and even weaker domestic demand. That’s how a slow grind turns into a downward spiral.

China’s export machine depends on cheap production. But when oil, raw materials, and logistics all get more expensive, that model starts breaking down. Even a modest oil spike can shave growth and wipe out tens of billions.

Data shows that 51% of Chinese workers did not receive a pay raise last year, the highest in Asia. The regional average is 36%. About 10% of workers even experienced pay cuts.
Official youth unemployment stands at 16%, but the real number is likely much higher.

During the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, China could rely on cheap oil from Venezuela, Iran, and Russia. Now that option is gone. After Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil, making it highly sought after globally.
Russia no longer needs to sell oil cheaply to China.

Experts estimate that a 25% increase in oil prices would reduce China’s GDP growth by at least 0.5 percentage points. That translates to a loss of at least $100 billion for China due to the Iran conflict.

Meanwhile, U.S. military spending in the conflict is around $20 billion. In other words, China’s losses are far greater than America’s. And even these estimates may be too optimistic.

If the U.S. fully destroys Iran’s infrastructure and triggers prolonged instability, global oil prices could remain high for an extended period, crippling China’s export-driven economy. That would deal a devastating blow to China.

[POL.endymion @endymianon]

@Shemars_shooter Kill him and move on
Give the woman compensation and still deport her

[POL.endymion @endymianon]

@elonmusk Moderated

[POL.endymion @endymianon]

@johnkonrad I mean one could counter china and revive shipbuilding in one move

[POL.endymion @endymianon]

@esjesjesj @GregNice1228 Imagine 10 years later and you still are too dumb to know Obama lied about Iran and bribed them to give back hostages

[POL.endymion @endymianon]

@AnnCoulter You dont have any credibility left

[POL.endymion @endymianon]

@NYCMayor Are you challenging the supremacy clause

[POL.endymion @endymianon]

@PiersUncensored @piersmorgan @BillOReilly Thats because you are a smear merchant and have no diplomatic or national sense of urgency. You in short dont know where your bread is buttered sunshine

[POL.endymion @endymianon]

@megynkelly You are transparent

[POL.endymion @endymianon]

@StefanMolyneux You didnt know dumas is based on a Black French man in real life?

[POL.endymion @endymianon]

@piersmorgan Almost like the president had info you didnt and the war is necessary

[POL.endymion @endymianon]

@RaheemKassam @TheNatPulse Thats not true

You expose yourself by the day

[POL.endymion @endymianon]

@piersmorgan Shows you dont know anything about military matters
Plans HAVE to be made

[POL.endymion @endymianon]

@hanaamurakami Do you realize that YOU arent the one that gets to take offence over the joke? That Japan is was and is forever in the wrong on that issue?
The aggrieved party is who gets to break the tension and make jokes about it not you.

[POL.endymion @endymianon]

@elonmusk Buddy

Helium 3-4

[POL.endymion @endymianon]

@unusual_whales They dont have a military
You are absurd
@grok

[POL.endymion @endymianon]

@RaheemKassam No im pretty sure its because he thinks he is those things and says good riddance for him being gone

You are showing how much of a agent you are

[POL.endymion @endymianon]

@Cernovich @ArcMadder Right... the war in Ukraine began in 2022 with no pretext too right?

[POL.endymion @endymianon]

@krassenstein You look like you belong there. Stay.

[POL.endymion @endymianon]

@ClarkeMicah @exRAF_Al Sad to see such a thinker accept death and defeat