just here observing

👀 on for New Events With Significance

[just here observing @engrobserving]

I need a pinned tweet. @thescript

[just here observing @engrobserving]

@bncdotph What’s with the orange neck tie? 😅

[daily netizen @dailynetizen24]

1.7 fertility rate na ang Pinas. Turns out, MALI si Arsenio Balisacan noong 2012— at tama ang matagal na nating babala noon!

Noong 2012, mariing tinutulan natin ang Malthusian logic ni Arsenio Balisacan, NEDA chief sa mga panahon yun ni former President Benigno 'Noynoy Aquino, at ng mga kapareho niyang technocrat: ang ideya na kailangang itulak ng estado ang population control para umunlad ang ekonomiya.

Ang claim nila noon, mas kaunting anak = mas mabilis ang growth, mas madaling “harvest” ang demographic dividend, mas mabilis aangat ang Pilipinas.

Fast forward to 2026, at heto ang pinakamalaking sampal sa ganyang flawed logic: bumagsak na sa 1.7 ang fertility rate ng Pilipinas, at ito ay mas mababa na sa 2.1 replacement rate.

Ibig sabihin, hindi na ito simpleng usapan ng “population explosion” na matagal nang pinagsisigaw ni Balisacan. Ang tanong ngayon ay kabaligtaran: ano ang mangyayari sa labor force, aging, at long-term growth kapag masyado nang bumabagsak ang births? The very scenario that population controllers used to dismiss is now staring us in the face.

At dito malinaw kung bakit mali si Balisacan noon.

Ang demographic transition ay bunga ng pag-unlad, hindi sanhi nito.

Hindi yumaman ang mga bansang Asyano dahil una nilang pinababa ang bilang ng sanggol. Yumaman sila dahil nagbukas sila ng ekonomiya, nag-akit ng investment, nagpalakas ng industriya, nag-improve ng education, at nagtaas ng productivity. Saka sumunod ang pagbaba ng fertility habang tumataas ang kita, nag-u-urbanize ang lipunan, at nagiging mas mahal ang pagpapalaki ng anak. In other words: growth first, fertility decline later, not the other way around.

Pero ang ipinush noon ni Balisacan ay baliktad: gawing central development strategy ang “population management,” na para bang ang problema ng Pilipinas ay masyadong maraming bata at hindi mahina ang job creation, mababang sweldo, mahal ang pabahay, mahal ang kuryente, kulang sa social support, at palpak ang economic institutions. Iyon ang malaking intellectual error.

Ginawang sanhi ang isang bagay na kadalasan ay epekto lang ng modernization.

At ngayon, mismong datos ang nagpatunay nito.

Bumagsak ang fertility ng Pilipinas mula 4.1 noong 1993 hanggang 1.7 sa 2025 NDHS. Hindi ito nangyari dahil may magic formula ang mga population planners. Nangyari ito habang unti-unting nagbabago ang ekonomiya at lipunan: mas maraming kababaihan ang nag-aaral at nagtatrabaho, tumataas ang gastos sa pagpapalaki ng anak, nade-delay ang pag-aasawa, lumalawak ang urban lifestyle, at mas maraming pamilya ang kusang pumipili ng mas kaunting anak.

Kahit sa rural areas, bumaba na rin ang fertility. Kahit teenage pregnancy, bumaba rin. That is exactly the pattern I argued years ago: people adjust fertility as conditions change; hindi kailangan ng estado na tratuhin ang populasyon na parang thermostat ng GDP.

Mas matindi pa: ang mga bansang laging ginagawang poster child ng population-control crowd... Japan, South Korea, Singapore, even China, sila ngayon ang nagsasuffer sa mismong low-fertility trap na dapat sana’y naging babala sa atin. Singapore itself had to reverse its old “Stop at Two” posture after overshooting fertility decline.

China’s one-child obsession left it with aging, a shrinking workforce, and a demographic headache that no propaganda can hide. So if iyon ang template na gustong sundan ng mga local technocrats noon, then the 1.7 fertility rate today should be read not as a victory lap for statism, but as a warning against it.

At dito lumalabas ang pinakaimportanteng punto: the collapse to 1.7 does not vindicate Balisacan. It vindicates our more than a decade critique of him.

Why? Because the drop happened without proving his thesis.

The new data do not show that state-led population control created prosperity. What they show is that fertility can plunge as social and economic conditions change, and once it plunges too far, the country inherits a new set of problems: fewer future workers, faster aging, heavier pension and healthcare burdens, and weaker long-term domestic demand if productivity does not rise fast enough.

In short: Balisacan treated population reduction as a development tool.

I argued then that fertility decline is an outcome of development, and a risky one if fetishized by the state.

The Philippines at 1.7 is the proof that this distinction matters.
Kung tutuusin, ang tunay na leksyon dito ay mas simple at mas brutal: Hindi kahirapan ang malulutas ng population decline.

Ang dapat ayusin ng gobyerno ay ang ekonomiyang nagpapamahal sa pagkakaroon ng anak: mababang sahod, insecure jobs, mataas na cost of living, housing crisis, weak family support, poor transport, poor childcare, at chronic policy failure.

Kapag iyan ang inuna, fertility will naturally find its level. Pero kapag ang estado ang nauna sa mindset na “bawasan muna ang tao para umunlad,” ang ending ay ganito: babagsak ang birth rate, pero hindi pa rin naaayos ang structural problems, at dadagdagan mo lang ng panibagong demographic problem ang lumang economic mess.

So yes, 1.7 is historic. But it is also a verdict.

A verdict against the lazy Malthusian politics that blamed population for underdevelopment.

A verdict against the old statist fantasy that bureaucrats can engineer prosperity by engineering family size.

And above all, a verdict that the critique I made years ago was right: economic growth drives demographic transition, not the other way around.

[just here observing @engrobserving]

@dzbb Di pa tapos itong si marites cayetano kala mo nman sikat na sikat

[just here observing @engrobserving]

@mvn_dn Loser legarda

[just here observing @engrobserving]

@imtheatan Kaboses nung eden ng net25 haha

[Rommel Lopez @RommelFLopez]

May 11 - June 3, 2026

23 days as Senate President

Senate sessions = 8

Bills passed = 0

Facebook Live = 20

Press Conferences = 3

Worst Senate President ever

Alan Peter Schramm Cayetano

[just here observing @engrobserving]

@PhilstarNews @jovefrancisco I just love your headline 😂

[just here observing @engrobserving]

@brigadaph Pass Anti Dynasty law now! Kakahiya mga cayetano a disgrace to the senate

[just here observing @engrobserving]

@mvn_dn True. As if walang chief justice from 2012-2016 depota

[just here observing @engrobserving]

@AltA2ZChannel11 Bakit may contract???? Varsity player sila. Student athletes. Ang meron lang sila enrollment.

[Belle Enriquez @iamsouperwoman]

A Gentle Reminder :

Magnitude 7.2 earthquake will instantly collapse Metro Manila's bridges and flyovers, cutting the capital into four isolated islands and blocking emergency responders.

To prevent total paralysis, the MMDA’s Oplan Metro Yakal Plus divides the metropolis into four independent, self-sustaining quadrants, each equipped with its own pre-designated master evacuation camp and emergency field hospital.

THE NORTH AND EAST QUADRANTS: THE HEALTHCARE HUB

The North Quadrant serves as the capital's primary healthcare refuge, encompassing Quezon City, Caloocan, Valenzuela, San Juan, and Mandaluyong. If you are caught in these areas, you must look for open ground away from dense commercial zones.

The designated primary evacuation camps for this sector are the sprawling Veterans Memorial Medical Center (VMMC) Golf Course and the expansive UP Diliman Grounds, while emergency field hospitals will be rapidly deployed at both the VMMC compound and the Quezon Memorial Circle.

Meanwhile, the East Quadrant acts as the high-risk Valley Response Zone, covering Pasig City and Marikina City—the two localities directly hugging the active fault line.

Because of their extreme proximity to the epicenter, residents here must immediately route to Marikina Boys Town, the Red Cross Compound in Marikina, or the ULTRA (PhilSports Complex) in Pasig, with emergency medical operations centralized at the LRT-2 Santolan Station Depot.

THE WEST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS: COASTAL REFUGES AND FINANCIAL SAFETY NETS

For those located near Manila Bay, the West Quadrant covers the City of Manila, Malabon, and Navotas. This dense, historic sector relies heavily on the Intramuros Golf Course to serve as both its primary evacuation camp and emergency field hospital.

The thick, historical stone walls and wide-open greens of the golf course provide a much-needed structural buffer zone, keeping evacuating crowds safe from collapsing high-rises and crowded residential blocks.

On the other hand, the South Quadrant covers the sprawling financial and residential districts of Makati, Taguig (BGC), Pasay, Parañaque, Las Piñas, Muntinlupa, and the municipality of Pateros.

If the disaster strikes while you are in this sector, the primary evacuation sanctuary and field hospital operations will be entirely centralized at the Villamor Air Base Golf Course in Pasay City.

STAY IN THE QUADRANT

When "The Big One" hits, forget going home. Roads will be impassable, bridges severed, and falling debris lethal. If you are working in BGC but live in Quezon City, do not cross town. Your absolute survival mandate is to stay put and head to your current sector's nearest evacuation point—like Villamor Air Base for the South.

REMEMBER THESE PUBLIC GOLF COURSES

The MMDA’s decision to utilize golf courses like Veterans, Intramuros, and Villamor as primary disaster hubs is brilliant. In a catastrophic urban earthquake, the number one cause of casualties is not the ground shaking itself but falling debris—collapsing concrete walls, shattering glass facades, and snapping overhead power lines.

Golf courses are massive, wide-open green spaces completely devoid of potential debris Furthermore, these terrains provide perfect, clear zones for military helicopters to land safely, allowing emergency personnel to drop off critical medical supplies and airlift the severely injured when all roads are blocked.

Surviving "The Big One" requires clear-headed planning, not panic. Understanding Oplan Metro Yakal Plus provides the advantage needed during the first 72 hours of complete isolation. Memorizing these four independent quadrants and their open-air assembly points is key to survival.

Please share this information with your family and friends.

#radarPH

[marv @mvn_dn]

Son 😭 they caught him lying because of the iPhone model LMAO

[just here observing @engrobserving]

@DovieSelena Joy viado?!!

[just here observing @engrobserving]

@PhilippineStar @AngTitikMO @cayetano_peter

[iMPACT Leadership @iMPACTPH2019]

BAM, RAFFY INVITE MAJORITY SENATORS TO JOIN MINORITY BLOC, EXCLUDING CAYETANO

https://t.co/oLZC7Ivppq

[just here observing @engrobserving]

@jesusfalcis Di pa kasi sya pastor nu’n 😭😆

[just here observing @engrobserving]

@ElsonUnsay24546 @joeytrenas77 Kaka inject mo yan

[just here observing @engrobserving]

@reystersv @mvn_dn Amb080 ng english mo ogag

[Barry Gutierrez @barrygutierrez3]

So teka, para "ipagtanggol ang independence" ng Senado, ang balak ng grupo ni Alan Cayetano ay isara na lang ng kusa ang Senado at huwag na lang magtrabaho? 🤔 Wala na talagang sense ang mga taong ito.

[just here observing @engrobserving]

@ralphierce Looks like the trend is putting the heavier shows in the afternoon to evening block. Money Talks might be moved to an afternoon slot, just like what CYY originally did in Market Edge.