Ennovance Capital

#Privateequity & other #alternative asset investment firm. Build #Chemical #materials & #healthcare #businesses. Create/enhance #investment portfolio value.

[Mo Hossain @MoHossain]

Vacancies firm, confidence soft; labor differential new low; inflation expectations sticky; JOLTS 7.594M, gap 0.0M, quits 1.9%, hires 3.3%, layoffs 1.1%, confidence 91.2, expectations 74.4, 12m inflation 6.0%.

https://t.co/bJbDh56O6C
cc: BBG #job #economy #investment @ennovance

[Mo Hossain @MoHossain]

H-1B visa sponsorship down 80% since 2023; intl student enrollment off ~20%

#foreignstudent #university #college #Job
ht: BBG #STEM #Student #Wage

[Mo Hossain @MoHossain]

𝐋𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐠𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥: US cash pile rockets to $22.9T (vs $14.8T pre‑COVID); checking goes vertical $1.53T → $6.51T. Liquidity is structural: cap‑market gains + higher deposit/MMF yields + lower tax drag. Retail Sales growth doubles (3.4% → ~6.8%) with volumes hitting $747B YTD26. Real GDP steady at ~2.6% since 22Q2; nominal still drives SPX EPS. Inflation + bond‑vol = the real macro risk (excluding black‑swan events).

And how reliable is consumer sentiment for earnings?

ht:Fred/Moodys/JPM/ECL
#consumer #resilience #Riskmanagemwnt

[Mo Hossain @MoHossain]

𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐧 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐠 → 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐥, 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐜𝐲𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥:
𝐙𝐞𝐫𝐨‑𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐞𝐫𝐚 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐝𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲. “𝐙𝐨𝐦𝐛𝐢𝐞 𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐧𝐬” = 𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐦𝐬 𝐮𝐧𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐬𝐞 𝐚𝐭 𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 + 𝐧𝐨 𝐈𝐏𝐎 𝐩𝐚𝐭𝐡.

• 332/1,900 unicorns have raised capital at or below peak valuation.
• PitchBook estimates $500B–$1T in net valuation cuts.
• Ex‑top‑10 unicorns, aggregate value ≈ $5T
• 212 now valued under $1B.
• 383 disclosed no new funding for 3 yrs.
• VC fundraising collapsed from $223B (2022) → $66B (2023).
• Cameo: $1B → $82M.
• Quora: $1.7B (2017) → seeking $500M (2024).

https://t.co/aDIvXpom99

More via TheEconomist
https://t.co/ozH6KLYSfP
#Venturecapital #Fund #Investor

[Mo Hossain @MoHossain]

via WSJ

🇺🇸 JPMorgan = national‑security balance sheet.
$10B→$20–25B proprietary capital, $1.5T defense/AI/minerals financing thru 2035, $150B already executed, $2B direct equity (AI drones, antimony, data infra). Weekly DoD/DOE/DOC sync. Combs running the fund.

Missile + energetics shortages + China‑exposed minerals + stop‑go procurement → JPM revives merchant banking to rebuild U.S. industrial capacity.
Dimon is positioning JPM as America’s national‑security investment bank.

https://t.co/xFIzMltmyt #defensetech
#china #AI #Cybersecurity #investor

[Mo Hossain @MoHossain]

Federal student loan eligibility is shifting from enrollment to outcomes.
via WSJ https://t.co/9sw1UR0fYZ

📅 Effective: July 1, 2026
🎓 Programs must show graduates earn:
• > High school graduates (BA & below)
• > Median bachelor’s earnings (master’s)
⏳ Measured 4 years after graduation
✅ Must pass 2 of 3 years
⚠️ ~3,200 programs (~690,000 borrowers) projected to fail.
💰 U.S. student debt: $1.7T.

https://t.co/tu8cXyOCQD
#nonprofit #college #studentloan #skills #productivity #University
https://t.co/0ilk3tFuws

[Mo Hossain @MoHossain]

The energy shock was cyclical for EU, but 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚’𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐥.

Cheap Chinese exports, weaker Chinese demand, and persistent industrial overcapacity continue to weigh on Europe’s trade outlook. New trade deals help, but the eurozone still hasn’t found a clear path out of the dragon’s dungeon.

ht: TheEconomist WSJ EUCouncil CommerceGov #Tradewar

[Mo Hossain @MoHossain]

𝐁𝐨𝐭𝐭𝐨𝐦 𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞: 𝐠𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐩𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐚 𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐥𝐞‑𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐫𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐦𝐞, 𝐀𝐈 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐧𝐞𝐱𝐭 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝 𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐫. 𝐒𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐜𝐨𝐨𝐥, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐀𝐈‑𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐡𝐢𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡𝐲 𝐢𝐬 𝐝𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞. 🇺🇸

• AI = 40% of US mkt cap / 80%+ of returns; semis+HW+EE = 70%+ of global gains.
• Country returns = AI‑beta: winners (US/China/TW/KR/JP/IL), partials (MX/TH/VN/MY/SG), laggards (EU ex‑NL/IN/PH).
• R&D gap: winners 3%+ GDP, laggards <1%.
• Tech capex gap: winners 3.7% GDP, losers 1.6%.
• China: legacy tech –30%, ChiNext +35%.
• Japan: semis +200%, Kioxia +3,500%.
• GDP revisions: winners +1ppt, losers negative.

AI = sole organizing principle of global equity dispersion.

#Riskmanagement #vol #AI #investor

[Mo Hossain @MoHossain]

USA exceptionalism 🇺🇸

US GDP/cap sits ~2–3× major peers and the gap keeps widening; real GDP has out‑compounded Germany/UK/France for 200+ years; population scale inflected early and never converged; and even with China’s rise, the US still anchors ~35–40% of global defense spend with unmatched tech‑adjacent capability.

If the divergence isn’t cyclical, but structural, then what exactly is the mechanism that keeps reinforcing America’s long‑run outperformance?

ht:db/baml #investment #Vol #innovation #RiskManagement #Productivity

[Mo Hossain @MoHossain]

China’s June PMIs barely above water, mfg 50.3, non‑mfg 50.2 while internals deteriorate: jobs + inventories contracting, construction sinking, domestic demand absent.

High‑tech 53.5 + export orders = a single‑pillar, AI‑supercycle‑dependent expansion. Export prices rising fastest since early 2023.

Oil pullback helps input costs, but policy drift + rising EU pressure leave China stuck in a slow‑growth stall.
ht: BBG #tradewar

[Mo Hossain @MoHossain]

Public‑university medians show a clean split:

Revenue > HEPI but margins cracked: 73% of publics beat 3.6% HEPI, yet costs ran 5.4%. EBIDA 10.6 → 10.1; operating margin 2.0 → 1.4; ex‑gifts –1.8%. Gifts = 2.7% of revenue (public) vs 6.6% (private).

#education #college #Studentloan ht:MCO

[Mo Hossain @MoHossain]

𝐅𝐞𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐒𝐑𝐅 𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟕 𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐭𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧 𝐥𝐨𝐰‑𝐜𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐰𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐫‑𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐫𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠. 𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐬𝐞𝐞 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐰𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐬?

Federal water‑infra spend rolls over hard as IIJA sunsets: annual SRF support drops from ~$10B during 2022–26 (IIJA‑boosted) back toward ~$3B in FY27 per OMB’s proposed 90% cut. The $12B annual gap equals ~20% of EPA’s estimated need, tightening capital flexibility for muni and IOU systems already facing rising replacement cycles and inflation‑linked project costs. Smaller muni systems show highest exposure as low‑cost SRF loan supply retrenches.

#water #infraatructure #investment ht:MCO

[Mo Hossain @MoHossain]

𝐏𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜 𝐥𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞 > 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞.

Households de‑levered post‑GFC. Corporates re‑levered but stayed range‑bound. Uncle Sam absorbed the shock, and then kept going. Fiscal is now the balance‑sheet that does the work.

Risk Transfer
https://t.co/vjWN5P09NT
#consumer #debt #investment $

[Mo Hossain @MoHossain]

𝐔𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐌&𝐀 𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐲𝐜𝐥𝐞 𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐬 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐲 𝐏𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐀𝐦𝐢𝐝 𝐀𝐈‑𝐃𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐞𝐱 𝐒𝐮𝐫𝐠𝐞

Run by political bosses, the utilities M&A supercycle is making an already concentrated market even more monopolistic: $203.6B deals in 5mo ’26 (+40% vs all ’25). Data‑center capex $151.5B (2.2× YoY). Mega‑deals: NextEra–Dominion $112B, AES $33B. Utilities projecting 50–100% rev growth. Power costs +9% YoY → boom times for political‑lobbying consultants.

ht: FT #electricity #inflation #costofliving #mergers
https://t.co/Qrsce9cMlX

[Mo Hossain @MoHossain]

𝐀𝐫𝐞 𝐒𝐖𝐅𝐬 𝐚𝐛𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜 𝐞𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐤 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐥𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐀𝐈‑𝐝𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐧 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐫𝐚 𝐩𝐮𝐥𝐥𝐬 𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬?

Private credit redemption gates shrugged off. Rotation looks secular, not cyclical.
SWFs accelerating the shift from listed equities as concentration risk blows out, S&P top‑10 now 38% of index.

Invesco survey: net ‑17% to public equities; net +28–35% to PE/PC/infra. Infra share already doubled to 9% (’22→’25). Temasek at 49% unlisted; Mubadala at 59%.

AI capex (DCs + energy) pulling sovereign capital into private markets + national‑security‑aligned infra. Bond‑equity correlation breakdown post‑’21–22 inflation shock eroding 60/40.

#riskmanagement #portfolio #investments
ht:GS #ArtificialIntelligence #AI

[Mo Hossain @MoHossain]

Short‑run: Case‑Shiller 20‑city up 0.9% YoY in April; buyer confidence rising (~⅓ vs 27% in 2025) even as high prices remain the top barrier. Pending sales and contract signings have bounced off winter lows, with 2026 activity running above 2025.

Long‑run: MBA’s demographic study signals a future supply overhang. 2025‑35 demand: 1.13M units/yr vs 12.6M expected construction.

Does the next decade’s housing demand really fall to about 802k units per year?
Net: ~23M units built vs ~19.4M needed. If builders don’t slow starts, and immigration stays status‑quo: supply > demand → national price pressure, softer household formation, and mortgage‑sector risk.

Chart @LoganMohtashami
https://t.co/sBAjWODllT
#RMBS #realtor #realestete #housing #cre

[Mo Hossain @MoHossain]

Major indices green with the Dow clearing 52k for the first time.

Semis revision breadth pressing historical ceilings; SOX maintains correlation with SIL’s lead. WTI breaks structural levels and screens oversold on RSI.

ht MarketWatch #materials #oott #energysecurity $sox #AI #investor #riskarb

[Mo Hossain @MoHossain]

𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑔𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑙𝑦 𝑟𝑒𝑙𝑦𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑔𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑝ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑦, 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 to maintain financial strength. Moody’s FY2025 report shows growing financial pressure across the sector.

• More than 50% of private universities failed to keep pace with inflation.
• Revenue: +3.2%
• Expenses: +4.6%
• EBITDA margin: 10.7% (lowest in 20+ years)
• Enrollment: -0.8%
• Net tuition revenue: +3.3%
• Tuition discount rate: 43.1% (record high)
• Median cash & investments: $717M (+10% investment returns)
• Long-term debt: +3.3%

Only 11% of institutions achieved net tuition revenue per student growth above 6%, while 22% experienced declines.

Strong endowment returns and charitable giving are helping preserve balance sheets, but they are increasingly masking deteriorating operating fundamentals as costs continue to outpace revenue growth.

ht:MCO #HigherEducation #education #UniversityFinance #Endowments #Nonprofits #privatecollege

[Mo Hossain @MoHossain]

Isn’t @kevinschaul’s point at WPO essentially this, that these AI tools are failing to present truly neutral representations of nuanced policy debates, on average?

Neutrality ≠ vagueness.
Neutrality ≠ corporate PR tone.
Neutrality ≠ “both-sides-ism” that avoids substance.

Neutrality is structured clarity. Buffett’s joke was about fake independence, boards filled with people who look neutral but have no real ability to challenge management. That’s not “cXo of nothing,” and it’s not the Buffett-style “independent director who has no qualifications except doesn’t burp.” It’s actual intellectual work.

Isn’t a lot of AI “neutrality” today just performative balance without any real analytical competence?

OpenAI AnthropicAI CNBC #AI #

[Mo Hossain @MoHossain]

✅ #Hospital margins keep ripping: YTD 8.3% in Apr‑26 vs 7.4% in Mar‑26 as rev +8% y/y &gt; exp +7%; OP +8%, IP +5%, labor +4%, non‑labor +9%, with payer‑mix deterioration still the drag.

#healthcare #HealthInsurance ht:baml
https://t.co/ctov8gZTqk