Log Pilot

⚡️🦆⚡️🦆⚡️🦆⚡️

[Log Pilot @Entouarnt4]

@elonmusk It’s a 25,000-year dash from the trees to the starship.

[Log Pilot @Entouarnt4]

@BTCBreadMan That would set up an epic @RealJimChanos pair trade round two when things eventually roll over.

[Log Pilot @Entouarnt4]

@accretetrader @ChrisCamillo 100%. Huge trap, imo.

[Log Pilot @Entouarnt4]

@shridlock @sminston_with My calcs line up with Smitty’s. 5%ile at 79k today. 5%ile at 110k one year from today. Below snip shows 2%ile and 98%ile bands.

All calculated based on trend. For which I used:
log10 P = -1.928 + 5.690 • log 10(Age in years).

[Log Pilot @Entouarnt4]

@LawrenceLepard Prescious little guy

[Log Pilot @Entouarnt4]

@MylesGinvest @Dalecrypto_ Gotcha. Same here. Not short but sold some CC against leaps.

I’d like to target the ytd vwap at 72. But might take the 50ma on the 4h at 76, depending how it reacts from there..

[Log Pilot @Entouarnt4]

@MylesGinvest @Dalecrypto_ You called for higher while holding shorts? Hm.

[Log Pilot @Entouarnt4]

Haha very true. People tend to marry their ideas, and start to ignore what’s happening and developing around them. You were analyzing what was happening, and when signs started showing different action than what originally predicted you were adapting to that. Well done.

All the big accounts have 100% win rates, didn’t you know!?

And it’s funny because win rate is the wrong focus. Sure, a high win rate helps, but it’s not even the most important thing needed to make money. One of my favorite traders is Qullamaggie, and his win rate was only 24%. That was enough to be one of the most profitable traders ever. Sizing and r/r control is whats actually important. 🙂

[Log Pilot @Entouarnt4]

@Deepvue ARKG

[Log Pilot @Entouarnt4]

@cittal_ @hillery_dan No options chain on STRK

[Log Pilot @Entouarnt4]

@hoose_house @FinFreedom414 True ✔️

But all proceeds would go to more leaps ..

[Log Pilot @Entouarnt4]

@JoshMandell6

[Log Pilot @Entouarnt4]

@vinz0r @hoose_house @piovincenzo_ Bro 🫪

[Log Pilot @Entouarnt4]

@hillery_dan @JoshMandell6 Indeed. But I’ve replaced the concept of a floor with the 2-5%ile band. Prefer to see it all as probabilities based.

[Log Pilot @Entouarnt4]

Entry is definitely critical. And management can be equally! As well as stomach for the volatility of buying leaps as a position trade. And at the same time, knowing where the line is between volatility and a dying ticket… Have seen so so many people ride from down 50% to 99% on calls that had gone from 50/50 to essentially zero chance….

Hope everything is well in SF, Grain.

[Log Pilot @Entouarnt4]

Definitely :)

I love options. To me they are like little puzzle pieces, and you can do so many different things with them.

I know you already understand how they work, but I’ll share some basic ideas about how I like to look at them….

My own view is that the best way to think of options is to first strip away everything technical and zoom out to get to the core. An option is a contract. The contract is an agreement with terms. The buyer pays the premium and purchases a contractual and enforceable right (to buy at price X (call) or to sell at price X (put) between purchase and expiration).

Looking at nothing else other than that, I like to imagine I’m sitting in a diner and crafting an agreement with someone. And then it boils down to: do I like the terms? If I’m selling calls, am I willing to live with it if I agree to sell my shares and then the stock runs? Etc. Whatever the contract is, it has these simple terms that anyone can understand if they break it down to basics.

Beyond this, yes, there’s a lot of additional things that we can get into about their mechanics and how the prices on them move and how the time value can oscillate. And for example IV is one that can be especially important to be aware of. That and Greeks stuff is all valid info. But at the end of the day I’ve found success playing with options by keeping that super simple bottom line approach. Basically: “Do I like the deal?”

[Log Pilot @Entouarnt4]

@GMartin_0 Awesome. And yes, the trend and the recent gap up from the range are textbook..

Plus it’s a solid, century old company…

[Log Pilot @Entouarnt4]

Post above seemed to imply he was encouraging options buying. I was speaking more wrt the relative value and risks b/w ASST and MSTR.. and the risk generally of jumping in to buy calls on a momentum stock right after it has doubled in a short period. Wasn’t there to hear what Grain said, so my bad if it sounded like I was implying something untrue.

Everyone is responsible for their own decisions. I defended Grain when he was attacked last year after many felt he had been encouraging listeners (when there were thousands piling in to his spaces in late ‘24) to jump into the riskiest options on the chain and “attack the tail”… I think that actually may have been the title of the space…

[Log Pilot @Entouarnt4]

@0xTimB1 @GrainofSaltSF @higbee 1080-LOL