The Greatest $ Trade Ever: the Digital EuroStack Migration.
People here will tell you that Euro digital sovereignty is just a 🇪🇺Eurocrat meme or buzzword. The truth is that Europe is already running at light speed to disrupt US dominance over the continent and build its own “digital” EuroStack, with emerging players spanning across the whole continent, from Norway to Romania, from France to Estonia. Governments and enterprises first. Consumers to follow.
At stake, there is a whopping $1.4 trillion European market (and growing). Europe has the talent, players, and, above all, the capital to pull off this massive trade. And as the size of the deal grows, it is going to attract even more talent and capital spooked by US geopolitical tantrums. Expect the EU to become the hottest VC market very quickly.
US tech giants have been complacently relying on their monopolistic practices for years. Ripe for disruption. Fueled by open source, regulatory pressure and EU public financing, this is more than just about digital sovereignty. The opportunity is to build a cheaper, more efficient and secure digital economy and society. Just better for all.
Here comes a breakdown of how Europe is playing this massive trade across the whole “digital” stack, focusing on its core components (a ca. $600 Billion opportunity).
1/12🧵👇
Venezuela Just Proved the Bitcoin Bull Case, And No One Is Paying Attention
Maduro used Tether to move 80% of Venezuela's oil revenue. Billions in sanctions evasion, settled on Tron since 2020.
Then the US made a phone call.
Tether froze the wallets.
Game over.
Everyone's focused on the arrest. The real story is the lesson every finance minister on earth just learned in real time:
Stable coins are a leash, not an escape.
If someone can freeze it, it isn't money. It doesn't solve sovereignty.
First principles:
USDT is dollar plumbing without SWIFT. Faster. Cheaper. Still has a CEO. Still has a compliance department. Still picks up when Washington calls.
This is why USDT adoption exploded, 71-year-old grandmothers in Caracas pay their HOA fees in tether now. But useful ≠ sovereign.
The entire value proposition for sanctions evasion just got publicly falsified.
Now do the game theory:
You're Iran. Russia. Any country hedging against dollar weaponization. You just watched Venezuela's "crypto solution" get shut off like a light switch.
Where do you put reserves now?
USDT? Compromised.
Yuan? Political strings.
Gold? Try settling $500M across borders in 10 minutes.
CBDCs? Same kill switch, government branding.
There's exactly one asset that clears final settlement without asking permission from anyone.
21 million units. No CEO. No freeze function. No phone number.
This is the ad Bitcoin never had to buy.
The most desperate, highest-stakes capital on earth just learned there's only one door.
Price doesn't reflect it yet.
It will.
Take a look at the Treasury General Account below
With the government shut down, the TGA is not getting spent so it’s building as receipts are received and debt issued
The latest opening balance stands at $965bn - a build of circa 150bn in October - that’s cash coming out of the market
On top of that into month end, the RRP is building as banks window dress balance sheets
The RRP is up circa 20bn so far this week
That’s all liquidity being taken out of this market
Add to that the fact that bank reserves have fallen into the lower range of “ample”
This is creating some tightness in bank funding markets witnessed by elevated SOFR spreads and rising usage of the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility (SRF)
Yesterday, eligible firms took just over $10bn on loans from the SRF, a record since its introduction in 2021
Whilst this is not extreme stress, its tightening
This is why Bitcoin, given its hyper sensitivity to liquidity, is failing to break out of this choppy range
So what changes?
Obviously, after month end, the RRP will be drawn back down and return that circa 20bn to the market
Bank reserves will be more freely lent out too
Some tightness will remain until the end of QT on first Dec but once that ends, we start to get Fed balance sheet expansion once more after a few years of contraction
The government shutdown ending (likely mid Nov) will also see the TGA drawn down unleashing a flood of cash back into the market which will see bank reserve levels rise alleviating the moderate funding stress
So the liquidity picture is set to change quite significantly over the coming weeks
This week, into month end, is probably as tight as US based liquidity gets (until at least year end)
TLDR; liquidity headwinds ease after this week alleviating the pressure on Bitcoin
Towards the end of Nov and into the end of QT on 1st Dec, liquidity becomes a tailwind and we really pump
These are the levels you should be buying Bitcoin to position for the next leg higher
NFA of course 😉
@anastasia_neg@TimurNegru That area in 5/10 years with the high-speed train line Milan - Genoa (2026) and the beauty of the places ( because they produce great wines no less than Tuscany) will be inaccessible because prices will skyrocket. It's like buying in Tuscany 10 years ago or more.
@TimurNegru I'm honest you have the ability to find beautiful houses and it's really a great ability. The real estate in Italy, France and Spain is huge but finding really beautiful villas in contexts not out of the world at bargain prices is really difficult. Great work !
@MarioNawfal After falling madly in love with Cuba, its sounds and its colors, I understood that there is only one thing worse than unconstrained capitalism: true communism.
Good morning, everyone 😀
Since August 5th, we have seen some great moves ..... even bigger moves incoming 🚀
This is a reminder of all the targets for my favourites -
BTC 120K - Primary wave 5
ETH 7,500 - Primary wave 5
JASMY 0.32 - Primary wave 5
WIF 77 - Primary wave C
SOL 500 to 1,200 - Primary wave 5
RENDER 30 - Primary wave 5
ANKR 0.21 to 0.23 - Primary wave 3
SAND 2.55 - TBC
VET 0.18 to 0.20 - Primary wave 3
ADA 2.79 to 3.10 - Primary wave 3
ALGO 1.84 - Primary wave 5
RUNE 21 - Primary wave 3
XRP 1.43 to 2.08 ( 2.90 hit ) - Primary wave 3 ?
.......
DXY 93 to 96
SPX 6,254
BTC Dominance 20 to 30%
Note - I have completed in-depth TA of all of the above and have shared everything
Remember - You can find all my TA of my favourites on my homepage in the 'Highlights' section
Reminder - I don't do timelines
Good luck to you all in your chosen trades 😇
2024 🚀👍🏼
@ArqJulioHerrera@FernandezMadara In italy we can't see al these stars togheter... so l'Havana remains definitely beautiful. Without black-outs It will be obviously more comfortable. In every case it's romantic and full of magic.
1/ Imagina que te despiertas, miras tu cuenta bancaria y ha desaparecido todo tu dinero. Pues esto le pasó a miles de colombianos anteayer. ¿Qué pasó con la plata de Bancolombia que no aparece en las cuentas de sus clientes?
Te lo cuento...
Try explaining this to European governments 😂 In Italy and in countries where taxi drivers are a "lobby" it will be really difficult to explain that they are easily "replaceable" 😅
Waymo self driving taxis are highly preferrable over Uber from a customer perspective I think
I use Uber A LOT and there's endless problems with it:
- drivers playing loud music
- drivers on speaker phone calls for entire ride
- drivers always complaining about Uber not giving them enough money (esp in US)
- drivers then trying to cancel ride so you pay off app in cash
- smelly and dirty cars (tobacco smell or just dirty)
- drivers use you as a therapist and vent their entire life to you (50% of the time)
- drivers visibly on drugs
Waymo is now live in SF, LA, soon Austin and Miami and in a few years in Europe and similar self driving taxi companies in the rest of the world (China already has them of course)
Technological change is inevitable so whether I agree with the social problems of unemployment, it will happen regardless
I think the problem right now is that the average quality of human services is so bad already that it's not even a challenge for AI to replace humans
If avg human service quality was high it would be harder, but that's because people in service industry are paid low now and scraping by so logically they won't do much effort (I wouldn't either)
That makes the economics of AI replacing humans even more likely and even more rapid to come
✨ Exactly 40 years ago today, legendary economist F.A. Hayek predicting the future of money
"I don't believe we shall have good money until we take it from government. All we can do is by a sly, roundabout way, introduce something they can't stop."
This is why we #Bitcoin 🔥
@Becky_Trading Maybe it's just lagging...or not. From the chart It seems almost dead or in a very long accumulation period. My feeling is that it will at least much less "explosive" than in the past. I don't know if it will reach ATH again...
Altcoins are on the verge of flying, so here's my guide to catching the big winners:
> How to spot the big winners.
> 6 strong Altcoin setups right now.
Read along in the comments!👇
On a personal note, I want to be a good sport. Congratulations to all who are fully engaged in Bitcoin $BTC and other coins and see them as the bottom layer of the world's future monetary systems. I believe there is a chance for this to occur, with Bitcoin becoming an important store of wealth. My generation, Biden's generation (he belongs to the older "Post WW1 War" generation), and Gen Xers have been at the helm for the Great U.S. Debt Disaster. We've are responsible for loading debt upon debt upon Gen M and Gen Z. There is something revolutionary going on with crypto that the old Gold bulls cannot fathom. But you younger investors understand it -- and hopefully crypto can bail out the system, or at least generate incredible wealth for you. So, my ode to you is here.
Laser to your heart's delight. You deserve it.
@HayekAndKeynes some time ago I was in Udaipur (Rajastan), an oasis of peace between the lakes, full of greenery and elegance. Here you can immediately see that for centuries it has been the house of a dynasty of kings. Indian chaos and relax, an uncommon mix extremely beautiful.