EpochOne

Macro, Crypto, Defi

[EpochOne @epoch0xone]

Still trying to fully wrap my head around this macro setup but here's what I see:

oil just hit $100/barrel - up ~42% from $67 before the Iran war started on Feb 28. Brent touched $120 at the peak and is now settling around $100 after IEA members released 400M barrels from stockpiles

EY-Parthenon estimates the gas price bump could push monthly inflation to as high as 1% in March - yearly inflation would near 3% in that scenario. that's the Fed's nightmare

Markets are pricing a 96% probability the Fed holds rates unchanged at the March 17–18 FOMC meeting. but the dot plot is going to be the real thing to watch - does the Fed signal fewer cuts ahead?

Forecasts that the fed funds rate will fall from its current 3.5–3.75% target to as low as 3% are already largely reflected in current equity valuations. if those cut expectations get pushed out, stocks reprice lower

it's becoming clear there isn't much any government can do to provide relief from higher oil prices short of ending the conflict. it will take a military breakthrough to get oil flowing again.

That's the part that makes this different from every other shock of the past 4 years - there's no policy lever to pull. this resolves militarily or it doesn't resolve

Not a prediction. just following the data.

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Tldr; war made your gas more expensive, that made inflation go up, that means the Fed can't cut rates, that means borrowing stays expensive, that means stocks struggle. everything is connected - and right now it all traces back to one thing: whether this war ends or doesn't.

#Iran #IranWar‌

[EpochOne @epoch0xone]

@midjourney Wow!

[EpochOne @epoch0xone]

@MarioNawfal “The first rollout is starting in Wuhan, because things from there go viral”

🤣🤣🤣

[EpochOne @epoch0xone]

@Cointelegraph NEVER
EVER
TAKE
SCREENSHOTS

[EpochOne @epoch0xone]

@BRICSinfo Iran keeps selling. China keeps buying. The dollar-denominated oil market has got a competitor that doesn't care about compliance. De-dollarization isn't anymore just a theory when it's happening in real time at 1.5 million barrels a day.

[EpochOne @epoch0xone]

@mattshumer_ Ummm, Not yet!

[EpochOne @epoch0xone]

@unusual_whales You still act surprised when you shouldn’t.

[EpochOne @epoch0xone]

it isn't a rally. It's the market admitting Nvidia shouldn't be the only AI infrastructure play trading at a premium.

Data center revenue at $5.8B up 57% YoY tells us demand isn't slowing, it's diversifying.

The real story: HBM supply booked through 2026 means AMD locked in the capacity before the shortage hit. That's absolutely not luck, that's supply chain execution.

Nvidia built the moat. AMD just proved you can swim across it.

[EpochOne @epoch0xone]

Probability markets repricing oil below $85 on a headline that got walked back within 4 hours.

"Too soon" from Trump himself.
+8% reversal.

And somehow the odds stayed at 66%. This is the market pricing hope, not reality.

Until Hormuz physically reopens and tankers start transiting, probability models are just measuring sentiment, not supply.

Day 68 of the blockade doesn't end on a newspaper story. 🍻

[EpochOne @epoch0xone]

The $4T number only makes sense if these companies move from "testing" to replacing their payment rails entirely. The real signal: tech firms are building around the banking system, not with it.

Stablecoins aren't crypto anymore. They're a parallel financial layer that happens to settle on-chain.

[EpochOne @epoch0xone]

$NVDA just told you copper is a bottleneck. The move to optical isn't about speed, it's about heat and density.

AI racks are hitting physical limits on power dissipation. Glass solves what copper can't at scale. +1000% capacity means they're not experimenting, they're replacing the entire interconnect layer.

Corning just became AI infrastructure. Most people won't realize until it's priced in.

[EpochOne @epoch0xone]

@blknoiz06 Seeing Oil play ping pong!

[EpochOne @epoch0xone]

@zerohedge Someone is trying to make money on both directions .

[EpochOne @epoch0xone]

@s_m_marandi But people do not understand and never will.

[EpochOne @epoch0xone]

+8% in 60 minutes. The fastest crude reversal since the SVB weekend. Everyone who sold the Axios headline just became the bid.

This is what happens when you trade diplomacy like it's an earnings beat.

The structural thesis didn't change in 4 hours. Hormuz is still constrained. The shorts just learned that the hard way.

[EpochOne @epoch0xone]

@zerohedge Meanwhile Trump says “its too soon….”

We’re the exit liquidity.

[EpochOne @epoch0xone]

Oil dropped 10% on "deal close." Bounced back above $95 on "too soon." The entire crude move was built on a headline that lasted 4 hours. This is why you don't short a structural supply constraint based on diplomatic theater. Hormuz is still the trade.

THE CEASEFIRE IS THE NOISE!!!

[EpochOne @epoch0xone]

"Big assumption" is doing more work than the entire US diplomatic corps right now. Trump essentially said "peace if they agree, war if they don't" and called it a deal. That's not negotiation, that's an ultimatum with a press conference.

Iran's options: surrender or get bombed harder.

Bullish on defense stocks, bearish on anyone who sold oil today.

[EpochOne @epoch0xone]

Brent dropped nearly 10% in two sessions. Markets are pricing in a deal that doesn't exist yet. Trump said "assuming Iran" , a conditional language, not a signed agreement.
The last time oil moved this fast on diplomatic headlines, terms fell apart within weeks. If you're shorting crude here based on a headline, you're the exit liquidity :D .

[EpochOne @epoch0xone]

@zerohedge Mixed Signals all around. One moment he says there's good progress, the other moment he says "If Iran doesn't agree...." .

Something tanked the Oil and keeping bitcoin:native afloat. Interesting times.

[EpochOne @epoch0xone]

@MarioNawfal Meanwhile bitcoin:native holding at 82k . So good to see BTC decoupling from traditional assets.