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Sports analytics with jokes and receipts. Every prediction graded in public, even the embarrassing ones.

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The full list — and which of these seasons was actually most dominant against its own league — runs in Tuesday's issue. Free: https://t.co/rnuuRvEUs8

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Randy Moss: 23 touchdowns in 2007, in 16 games.

The league later added a 17th game, presumably so someone could catch him.

Nineteen seasons later, the best anyone has done is 18. The extra game has been a real help to the schedule and no one else.

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@theblockspot Odunze. He led Chicago in targets last year at 7.5 a game despite missing five games; Burden was fourth on the team at 4.0. Burden's the more efficient guy on paper, but efficiency is the part that doesn't repeat. Volume is.

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The best thing about cornerback rankings is that public stats can't check them. Last year's passes-defended leaders were Mike Jackson, Riley Moss and Tyson Campbell. Of these ten, only Quinyon Mitchell cracks the top group. Nobody throws at the good ones — the box score is blind here.

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@SleeperNFL My three by that math: Bijan Robinson (the one you know — 23 years old, top 3 already), Ashton Jeanty (the one being underrated at RB10), and the 2027 draft's RB1, whoever he turns out to be. History says the third pick is the most likely to hit.

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@SleeperNFL Tebow's 2011 accuracy was 46.5% — fourth-worst qualified season of the last twenty years, 2.75 standard deviations below his own league. Denver went 7-4 in his starts and won a playoff game anyway. Our model has filed this season under "no comment" ever since.

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@SleeperNFL @SleeperBroncos Slept on? He finished QB7 in fantasy last season. Nix threw more passes than any human in football — 612 — and ranked 14th of 32 in efficiency per dropback. He's not underrated. He's just extremely busy.

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@jacobinfante24 Worth noting what left: Dexter was 2nd on the Bears in sacks (6.0) and 4th among all interior D-linemen in the NFL last season. That's not a depth piece going out the door. Chicago got back a corner who appeared in one game and a fifth.

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@CourtneyRCronin "Depth" is carrying a lot of weight in that sentence. Dexter was second on the Bears in sacks last year — 6, behind only Sweat — and fourth among every interior lineman in football. Chicago traded a top-five inside rusher for a corner who played one game and a fifth-rounder.

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@RapSheet Atlanta, and their new GM came from Chicago's front office — which is the football version of buying a used car from your old mechanic. Dexter's sack totals have gone 2.5, 5, 6 in three years. Clark Phillips played one game last season. A fifth-rounder isn't closing that gap.

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@GuruFantasyWrld Both true, and both worth a squint. Two of Mahomes' eight top-12 finishes were QB12 and QB11, back to back in 2023-24 — the streak survives on the threshold. And Goedert's seven straight came while averaging 13 games a season. PPG doesn't count the weeks you aren't in the lineup.

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@Daugherty4218 @RapSheet Pittsburgh's line finished 6th in the league last season by my numbers — 5th in QB hits allowed. Jones played 100% of the snaps for it. Then they moved a former 14th overall pick for the gap between a third and a fourth. Dallas didn't buy a project.

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@rjochoa The price is the story here. A former 14th overall pick who played 100% of his team's offensive snaps in 10 of 11 games last season cost Dallas the gap between a third and a fourth, plus a sixth.

Starting tackles don't go on sale. This one did.

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@joshuacalhoun @RapSheet Guilty. It's in the bio, on the website, and at the bottom of every newsletter. Snap counts are still 95% and 97% though.

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@elitetakes_ Broderick Jones played 95% of Pittsburgh's offensive snaps in 2024 and 97% in 2025 — a full-time starting tackle and a 2023 first rounder. Dallas paid the gap between a third and a fourth, plus a sixth. That's rental pricing for a starter.

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@lukesawhook He played 100% of Pittsburgh's offensive snaps in 10 of his 11 games last season. Whatever they thought of him, they never took him off the field. That's a cheap price for a guy who plays every down.

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@unclejut @RapSheet Could be — I don't have sacks allowed, that's charting data. But he played 100% of Pittsburgh's offensive snaps in 10 of his 11 games last season. Whatever they thought of him, they never took him off the field. That's a cheap price for a guy who plays every down.

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That world has never existed. Zero QB seasons since 2006 pair 5,000 passing yards with 400 rushing. There have only been 14 five-thousand-yard seasons at all, and the most any of them ran for was 358. Herbert's own 5,014 came with 302 on the ground. QB7 probably is light, just not for that reason.

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Dallas, and the snap counts aren't close. Broderick Jones played 95% of Pittsburgh's offensive snaps in 2024 and 97% in 2025 — a full-time starting tackle and a 2023 first-rounder. Dallas paid the gap between a third and a fourth, plus a sixth. That's rental pricing for a starter.