Eric Bialek

[Eric Bialek @eric_bialek]

@stoolpresidente Carlo’s in East Cobb, you did frozen in 2020.

[Eric Bialek @eric_bialek]

@ShotTakingTime @InsideThePylons #harness @gabe_prewitt

[Eric Bialek @eric_bialek]

@InsideThePylons insanity... lets see how this pays?

[Eric Bialek @eric_bialek]

@InsideThePylons GL in hi5 carry. I am guessing 5M last flash

[Eric Bialek @eric_bialek]

@Quigleys_Corner @nnewby @FrankMirahmadi do you know have many live tickets are left in pick 6 after race 6, leg 4 of P6?

[Eric Bialek @eric_bialek]

@ranflyer Interested

[Eric Bialek @eric_bialek]

@polarcritter @ShotTakingTime It rolls over between all CDI tracks in Ky until someone hits it

[Eric Bialek @eric_bialek]

@atTheTrack7 @EJXD2 @polarcritter @AndrewChampagne It sounds like Twinspires should resurrect the batch upload tool they killed ~10 years ago

[Eric Bialek @eric_bialek]

@InsideThePylons it is better than the current state, but the most complained pool, exacta, probably won't improve much.

[Eric Bialek @eric_bialek]

@HorseToWatch @GiddyUpBets @daveorourke1973 Can the CAWs still bet, but throttled to 6 bets / second past 1 MTP?

This sounds great until you realize they can still bet discrete amounts for all exacta combos in a 10 horse race in 15 seconds.

With a 30 second pool cycle time, what really changes?

[Eric Bialek @eric_bialek]

Can the CAWs still bet, but throttled to 6 bets / second past 1 MTP?

This sounds great until you realize they can still bet discrete amounts for all exacta combos in a 10 horse race in 15 seconds.

With a 30 second pool cycle time, what really changes?

[NYRA (🗽) @TheNYRA]

Beginning February 5, NYRA will require CAW activity to cease at one minute to post in all wagering pools not previously subject to high-speed wagering restrictions.

Full story ⤵️

https://t.co/e5n3oHZHPn

[Eric Bialek @eric_bialek]

@stoolpresidente @elio82 Without your bet it would have paid $110.60 per $1 bet vs $92.80.

You won 16.8% of the pool.

Nice hit - maybe some CAW saw your bet and tailed too.

[Eric Bialek @eric_bialek]

An @OaklawnRacing hosted tournament was enough to get me out of my 3 year tournament semi-retirement.

I was registered for the tournament before a free hotel room was announced for players. I’d call this an excellent move by Oaklawn to treat horseplayers well. Kudos @ZGillham!

[Oaklawn Hot Springs @OaklawnRacing]

🏨 Stay. Play. Compete. 🏇
Oaklawn is raising the stakes for Southwest Stakes (G3) weekend with enhanced horseplayer contests, hybrid online play, national-level prizes and a limited-time complimentary hotel offer for on-track participants who register by January 18 at 5:00 p.m. CST.
Entries include chances to win seats in the 2026 Kentucky Derby Betting Challenge (KDBC) and Ultimate Betting Challenge (UBC) — plus a free room for each day you’re registered (based on availability).
This is your chance to turn a great weekend of racing into an elite horseplayer experience. 🔥
https://t.co/lyELPJFlCd

[Eric Bialek @eric_bialek]

@LogicRules55 @EJXD2 @turf_paradise @TurfwayPark I understand the premise of your statement. More money bet into the same carryover amount means the carryover $ is diluted across more winners.

With the large jackpot bets, they usually handle right around the amount that makes the bet 0% takeout or neutral EV.

[Eric Bialek @eric_bialek]

@xmattmillerx You nailed it Matt!

[Eric Bialek @eric_bialek]

@EJXD2 @turf_paradise @TurfwayPark Turfway $1 parlay was 47,752.

P6 paid $41,105 for 20c. Yields 4.3x

Turf Paradise $1 parlay was 11,115

P6 paid $8,793 for 20c. Yields 3.96x

[Eric Bialek @eric_bialek]

Pat - I would love for you to ask this if you have time.

Tracks aggressively market the Pick 5 but are a hard bet for the public (50% chance in each leg = 3% win chance) to win. 2025 data from Horseshoe Indiana shows that the P5 shows an increase in efficiency YoY between P5 payouts and win odds.

Does the panel believe that tracks promoting / marketing a low churn bet like the Pick 5 is good for the long term health of the wagering public and the game or is this just an other feast for the sharks?

I understand the CAW groups are some of the sharpest people with the best tech, evolving wagering habits, and deep bankrolls. I also understand that the Pick 5 and win pools are two completely separate wagering pools. I will also acknowledge the wagering landscape has changed and COVID played an impact as well.

Some data to paint the picture.

In 2022, Horseshoe Indiana switched from CDI to Monarch signal distribution. Monarch and Elite Turf Club both fall under the 1/ST family. Presumably Elite teams get better rebates on Monarch tracks.

2022, the year of the switch from CDI to Monarch, saw the highest level of correlation (R^2) between P5 payout and win parlay. An R^2 of 0.797 means these two value are strongly correlated. A real life example of 0.797 R^2 would be a car's engine size to consumption.

In 2023, an early P5 was added. Early P5 has historically had smaller fields, wagers are placed before any single race is ran that day (to see things like bias, hot jocks, etc.), and there are no will pays for the race. In layman's terms - the early pick 5 has more unknown variables when bets are placed. 2025 saw the highest level of correlation between the early P5 payout and win parlay.

The sharpest win money that sets the final win odds comes in late and presumably has a high % of CAW money. With high correlation between final win odds and P5 payouts, it can be presumed that CAW teams have a domineering role in these pools that are marketed heavily to the general public. So I guess to my original point, it seems like the switch to Monarch has made the wager more efficient recently. People have enjoyed wagers like the Pick 5 and Pick 6 due to the high variance associated with the wager which can lead to large payouts.

Would the marketing dollars spent on the P5 be better spent things to increase churn like lower takeout, penny breakage, seeded pools, better morning lines, etc?