@HorseToWatch@GiddyUpBets@daveorourke1973 Can the CAWs still bet, but throttled to 6 bets / second past 1 MTP?
This sounds great until you realize they can still bet discrete amounts for all exacta combos in a 10 horse race in 15 seconds.
With a 30 second pool cycle time, what really changes?
Can the CAWs still bet, but throttled to 6 bets / second past 1 MTP?
This sounds great until you realize they can still bet discrete amounts for all exacta combos in a 10 horse race in 15 seconds.
With a 30 second pool cycle time, what really changes?
Beginning February 5, NYRA will require CAW activity to cease at one minute to post in all wagering pools not previously subject to high-speed wagering restrictions.
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@stoolpresidente@elio82 Without your bet it would have paid $110.60 per $1 bet vs $92.80.
You won 16.8% of the pool.
Nice hit - maybe some CAW saw your bet and tailed too.
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@LogicRules55@EJXD2@turf_paradise@TurfwayPark I understand the premise of your statement. More money bet into the same carryover amount means the carryover $ is diluted across more winners.
With the large jackpot bets, they usually handle right around the amount that makes the bet 0% takeout or neutral EV.
Pat - I would love for you to ask this if you have time.
Tracks aggressively market the Pick 5 but are a hard bet for the public (50% chance in each leg = 3% win chance) to win. 2025 data from Horseshoe Indiana shows that the P5 shows an increase in efficiency YoY between P5 payouts and win odds.
Does the panel believe that tracks promoting / marketing a low churn bet like the Pick 5 is good for the long term health of the wagering public and the game or is this just an other feast for the sharks?
I understand the CAW groups are some of the sharpest people with the best tech, evolving wagering habits, and deep bankrolls. I also understand that the Pick 5 and win pools are two completely separate wagering pools. I will also acknowledge the wagering landscape has changed and COVID played an impact as well.
Some data to paint the picture.
In 2022, Horseshoe Indiana switched from CDI to Monarch signal distribution. Monarch and Elite Turf Club both fall under the 1/ST family. Presumably Elite teams get better rebates on Monarch tracks.
2022, the year of the switch from CDI to Monarch, saw the highest level of correlation (R^2) between P5 payout and win parlay. An R^2 of 0.797 means these two value are strongly correlated. A real life example of 0.797 R^2 would be a car's engine size to consumption.
In 2023, an early P5 was added. Early P5 has historically had smaller fields, wagers are placed before any single race is ran that day (to see things like bias, hot jocks, etc.), and there are no will pays for the race. In layman's terms - the early pick 5 has more unknown variables when bets are placed. 2025 saw the highest level of correlation between the early P5 payout and win parlay.
The sharpest win money that sets the final win odds comes in late and presumably has a high % of CAW money. With high correlation between final win odds and P5 payouts, it can be presumed that CAW teams have a domineering role in these pools that are marketed heavily to the general public. So I guess to my original point, it seems like the switch to Monarch has made the wager more efficient recently. People have enjoyed wagers like the Pick 5 and Pick 6 due to the high variance associated with the wager which can lead to large payouts.
Would the marketing dollars spent on the P5 be better spent things to increase churn like lower takeout, penny breakage, seeded pools, better morning lines, etc?