@BillAckman Probably wrong but perhaps right. It’s an interesting hypothesis and this does seem like an unprecedented circumstance, m generally it’s not different this time,it’s worth being open minded but I’m skeptical. bigger issue is higher rates don’t stop the government spending spree.
@DerivativesDon Inflation has been a problem for far longer than Iran war been going on. Powell never should have cut so much last year. 25 bp hike will not be anything close to a policy error, at worst it becomes and “insurance hike” that wasn’t necessary.
@dampedspring It’s difficult to argue that they have not done all of those things. The impetus and intent can be debated, but regardless of the reasons, the statement is accurate.
@DannyDayan5@acllc2 You’re right of course, but you know how these macro narratives grow. And additionally the fed has vowed to the markets will numerous times in the past decade or so.
@DannyDayan5@acllc2 A large part of the macro community just believes Warsh won’t hike. He is trumps guy after all and he has largely been in favor of lowered short rates. That said, the bar for a cut currently is exceptionally high, IMO.
@DannyDayan5 I think if Iran isn’t cleared up they go in September. Market seems to think it’s more likely they wait until 2027, not sure why they would though.
@DannyDayan5 It's interesting, as they are keeping assets going higher and bond yields in check. Meanwhile currency and gold is telling you that the more they think they are in control the more control they may be losing. Let's see how it plays out, I'm ready for some volatility.