This morning I ran a break of a FULL CASE of 2026 Bowman Megas. Here were the results...
Laser Parallels: 40
Mojo Bowman Sterling: 20
Mojo Electric Sluggers: 6
Red Rookies: 8
#'d Parallels: 9
Autos: 4 (base, base, /99, /125)
Mega Futures: 1
#thehobby#bowman
2026 Bowman Mega Boxes and Updated Base Numbers
Big shoutout to Lids for releasing Megas 2 weeks early. A couple legends were cool enough to post their Mega rips online already. That's all the Squatch needs. This gives us enough data to publish numbers on Mega Boxes.
For transparency, I made a run to my local Lids today to โverify findingsโ, for science. Walk in ready to join the party and shelves were wiped. Apparently a company-wide memo came down telling stores to yank Megas and sit on them until release day. Gotta love when random retail spots try to cosplay as an LCS, even though they haven't the faintest idea when it comes to sports cards.
Our big questions were:
1) One Mojo per pack or two?
Answer: 2.. Win for us.
2) 1st Bowman Autos?
Answer: still cloudy. I have not seen any yet, but still possible. This will not affect any numbers. But it will affect actual value of the format.
Total production of Megas:
713,325 boxes (35,666 cases)
YOY +18.9%
Of course, we already knew production numbers. Really the only thing this changes for us is Mojo Base calculations and Hit Rates.
Mega Box Hit rates:
1 auto per 5.4 boxes (3.7 autos/case) 16.3 parallels/box, 1.4 inserts/box. 0.8 numbered cards/box
Base Mojos Print Run:
~71,300 ea
So how does this news affect Mega Values?
Adding more Mojo refractors than expected is definitely a good thing. Sure, the print run is a little higher. Up from ~49,200 ea last year, this represents a 45% increase year over year. But I doubt this will affect values much.
Counting base Mojos as parallels, this brings the parallels per Mega box up to 16.3. This is solid. And by far the lowest $ per parallel of any format for Bowman. Second behind only Value Boxes in numbered cards as well.
Overall, Megas are a better buy than originally anticipated. If we find out, by some small chance, that there are also 1st Bowman Autos in Megas (I'd be shocked, but still technically possible), they would be a no-brainer buy. As is, they're still a solid format for floor value, probably slightly behind Value Boxes due to the lack of rare insert potential.
Now on to everyone's favorite...
Base Card Print Runs
Until now, all I had was a total for all base cards. This included Paper Base, Paper Prospects, and Chrome Prospect Base. Now, using pack dynamics, we are able to delineate those totals and come close to base print runs for each.
Base Paper: ~375,000 ea
Base Paper Prospects: ~255,000 ea
Base Chrome Prospects: ~192,000 ea
This should put a bow on 2026 Bowman.
If youโve been following, you already know where the Squatch has stood since odds dropped...Value Boxes. The name actually means something this time. And now that real world rips are rolling in, itโs not just a theory anymore.
I honestly canโt remember another release where $100+ cards popped out of Value Boxes this consistently.
Hobby how you hobbyโฆ but if I see them in the wild, Iโm not walking by without grabbing what I can. This is one call I'm happy to be right about.
Good luck out there.
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026BowmanisaBeast
Happy Bowman Release day! ๐ฅณ
Ripped a case of blasters this morning on whatnot. Here is what came out...
6 autos (4 chrome & 2 paper)
10 chrome #'d parallels
18 paper #'d parallels
7 red rookies
35 reptilians
12 power chord inserts
39 Bowman sterling inserts
40 Under the radar inserts
41 electric sluggers inserts
81 top 100 inserts
#bowman #thehobby @WaxMetrix
For all you basketball and football flippers new to Topps... You have a lot to learn. And I hope you get stuck holding the bag on this one. ๐งต @CardPurchaser
3) Just because it sells out quickly doesn't mean there's overwhelming demand for it. Counterintuitive, I know, but Topps manufactures demand by making small quantities available.