Eric Julihn

Industrihistoria är min livsluft. Gillar också framtidsfrågor, landskapsparker och bokdamm.

[Tymofiy Mylovanov @Mylovanov]

Ukraine spent a week burning Wildberries warehouses, Russia's Amazon. A strike on its main hub near Moscow sent up smoke seen from space.

The app on every Russian phone quietly feeds the front. The strikes hit the army and Putin's promise that war stays away — Foreign Policy. 1/

[MAKS 26 🇺🇦👀 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA]

Wildberries BINGO 🔥🔝

[🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 @front_ukrainian]

❗️Today in the morning, 🇺🇦Ukrainian drones successfully attacked the Wildberries logistics center in 🇷🇺Novosemeykino (Samara Oblast).

The logistics complex with an area of 178,600 m² is one of the company’s key hubs in the Volga region. The center handles the distribution and delivery of goods for Samara Oblast and neighboring regions, supporting the operation of the Wildberries logistics network in the central part of European Russia.

[Maine @TheMaineWonk]

Totally normal stuff from the 80 year old rapidly decaying President.

[Republicans against Trump @RpsAgainstTrump]

Can someone take the phone away from the Toddler-in-Chief?

[Furkan Gözükara @FurkanGozukara]

🚨 BREAKING: CNN's Harry Enten confirms Trump is heading towards an electoral black hole.

His approval rating has hit a histric term two low of 32 percent.

The Trump administration is completely collapsing and there is absolutely no bottom in sight. Total disaster!

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran held direct phone calls with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey warning of striking them if they participate or support the announced US and Israeli attack in any shape or form, per Tasnim.

Iran’s FM Araghchi, after speaking with Pakistan’s Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, Turkey’s FM Hakan Fidan, and Saudi Arabia’s FM Faisal bin Farhan, further warns "any participation and alignment by regional countries would be met with a decisive and proportionate response from Iran’s Armed Forces, with those responsible bearing full accountability for all consequences arising from such adventures."

[Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz]

Saudi Arabia's message to Washington is becoming increasingly clear. It echoes the warning delivered by Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman during his visit to Washington last week: if the United States launches major strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states will likely bear the immediate consequences.

Tehran has already signaled what it would target across the Gulf if President Trump follows through on his threats. From Riyadh's perspective, the timing could hardly be worse. With tensions rising again with the Houthis, the last thing Saudi Arabia wants is a broader regional confrontation with Iran.

This also highlights a broader strategic reality. The war has strengthened Iran's deterrence vis-à-vis the Gulf states. For Gulf leaders, preserving regional stability has become a higher priority than pursuing a decisive confrontation with Tehran.

At the same time, the core dispute remains unresolved. There is still no agreement over the future of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran shows no indication that it is willing to compromise on what it views as its role there. As long as that issue remains unsettled, there is no obvious diplomatic off-ramp.

So far, Iran's strategy of increasing pressure on the Gulf state, treating them as the weakest link in Washington's regional coalitio, appears to be producing results.

The focus is shifting back to quiet diplomacy between Oman and Iran, as both sides explore whether a compromise over the Strait of Hormuz is still possible. But regardless of what emerges from those talks, the key decision will once again rest with Washington.

If an agreement is reached, will the Trump administration be prepared to accept it? If not, will it ultimately decide that military escalation is the only remaining option?

President Trump's hesitation also suggests that the administration itself is far from convinced that a broader military campaign would weaken Iran or compel it to concede. That uncertainty helps explain why, despite repeated threats, diplomacy continues to be the preferred path.

Ultimately, Washington still appears to view a negotiated outcome as preferable to a conflict whose costs and consequences remain highly unpredictable.

#iran

[Isabella M Weber @IsabellaMWeber]

The Iran war is a redistribution machine: Big oil profits have shot up to historic highs. Our research shows that 50% of fossil fuel profits go to the richest 1% in the U.S. The rich are the ultimate beneficiaries of the war windfalls. The bottom 50% claim a mere 1% of profits while they are hit the hardest by the cost shock.

And that’s just the domestic economy. People in the Global South have been priced out of energy needs for months.

[Joni Askola @joni_askola]

In his latest video, Danish military analyst Anders Puck Nielsen delivers a stark message about the future of European defense:

Europe does not need armies that can instantly defeat Russia, but ones that can survive the opening shock of a high-intensity war.

The era of Western militaries relying on small, expensive high-quality forces and maneuver warfare is over.

For decades, Western defense planning focused on expeditionary warfare, banking on superior quality and rapid maneuver to avoid attritional grinds at all costs. As Anders Puck Nielsen points out, that approach is obsolete in a high-intensity war against a peer adversary like Russia. Attritional warfare will dominate from the very beginning, and European armies must be structured to survive that opening blow.

In this new environment, mass matters just as much as quality. The military that enters the war will not be the same military that finishes it, because the initial force will suffer massive losses and have to be replaced. Europe does not need a pristine peacetime army designed to defeat Russia in a single decisive battle. It needs an armed force built for endurance: one that can survive the first phase, absorb heavy losses, and rapidly scale up production to rebuild itself for the long fight.

Unmanned systems will be crucial to preserving precious manpower during that devastating opening phase. However, as Nielsen notes, drones cannot completely replace traditional armor. Infantry still needs the protection of tanks, armored personnel carriers, and infantry fighting vehicles to survive on a transparent battlefield.

At the same time, defensive measures alone will never be enough. Russia's growing deep-strike capabilities pose an existential threat that air defense alone cannot solve. Europe must develop and scale up its own long-range strike capacity to hit back into Russian territory at scale and degrade their war machine.

This shift also reshapes the naval domain. Massive, expensive frigates may no longer make as much sense for contested narrow seas like the Baltic during the opening phase of a conflict, even if they remain useful for expeditionary roles.

Old systems are not suddenly obsolete, but their role is changing. As Nielsen emphasizes, Europe must embrace mass, adaptation, cheap production, and rapid innovation

[Nadav Pollak @NadavPollak]

The pattern is becoming clear - Trump can’t get the Iranians to comply. They are not willing to concede on anything and are willing to use force to pressure Trump.
Trump is getting frustrated and decides to maybe use military force again and announcing it to the whole world to try and pressure Iran to comply before he uses force.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and Pakistan convince him to deescalate.

See you here in a few weeks after Trump again won’t get what he wants from Iran

[Peter Baker @peterbakernyt]

Trump is now all but the most unpopular second-term president at this stage of their tenure in the history of polling. The only exception: Nixon had even less public support at this stage but at that point he was just days away from resigning. https://t.co/YKxTl6e9Z3

[Emoluments Clause @Emolclause]

#BREAKING: Dana Bash: “And you’re 100% sure that what happened with the liner was vandalism, you can prove it?”

Sec Burgum: “Oh you absolutely can, and as we drain it, we’ve got all the photographs. We can see we can see I mean there’s there’s no possible way…”

Dana: “…the photographs of a person or people cutting a 300 or 350 foot gash in the bottom of the reflecting pool?” 

Sec Burgum: “Dana, I’m not sure why you and others in the media think that you want to keep trying to question…”🤦‍♀️

[Richard Hanania @RichardHanania]

This is really Mad King stuff.

Trump demands that people be arrested for destroying his reflecting pool. Judge Jeanine, the TV host he hired to be District Attorney, finally drops the case and says that the pool was damaged because the renovation was botched.

Trump goes to Truth Social and declares that she is wrong, and he still thinks it was vandalism.

The man is so insane but can't even find people corrupt enough to do what he wants.

Nearly every figure Trump appoints ends up being more principled and honest than Trump, even though he selects them for loyalty.

I guess maybe JD Vance and Stephen Miller are exceptions.

It's amazing what a terrible human being he is. Everyone is better than this man.

What does this say about the Republican voter?

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump says he has cancelled the US attack on Iran and that the “perimeters of a deal” have been agreed to.

Trump says this deal will include “a total reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.”

[The Hormuz Report @HormuzReport]

BREAKING: The U.S. has reportedly requested another round of talks with Iran through Qatar at the last minute. Tehran is reportedly reviewing the proposal, but Iranian officials have repeatedly signaled the current terms are unacceptable, making rejection the most likely outcome, according to Iranian media.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran directly warns that any US or Israeli attack on Iran's energy infrastructure will send the entire Middle East "back to the Stone Age," dismissing the US's new bombing plans as "a delusion Netanyahu has whispered in Trump's ear."

"They think that in the two days the market is closed they can deliver a decisive and rapid blow to us and force Iran to surrender, it is a delusion that Netanyahu has whispered into Trump’s ear," said spokesman for the Iranian Parliament's National Security Committee Rezaei.

"If a strike is made on Iran, we will return the entire region and its facilities to the Stone Age. It is in your best interest not to act foolishly."

[Jesse Livermore @Jesse_Livermore]

Hard to even process -- a president selling market-moving information to banks and wealthy investors in advance of everyone else, and personally pocketing hundreds of millions of dollars from it. This alone is more worthy of impeachment than 100 Watergate cover-ups.

[Megatron @Megatron_ron]

BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇩🇰 Trump is threatening Denmark once again

[Rasmus Jarlov @RasmusJarlov]

Show this to your MAGA friends who try to paint a picture of a collapsing Europe.