Eric Schuler

Pro-peace, pro-market. Against using force on peaceful people, even the ones you disagree with.

Here mostly for the covid discussion. Opinions are my own.

[Eric Schuler @ericschuler]

When you step back to look at it, the transition from one mania to the next was incredibly seamless.

And the two are similar in that they relate to a genuine underlying problem, but the dominant responses will not solve the problem & are very likely to harm more innocent people.

[alex gutentag @galexybrane]

Last month liberals hated the unvaccinated, wore masks, and called for medical segregation. Now they hate Russians, wear Ukrainian flag pins, and call for a no fly zone - all because the TV told them to. This is what brainwashing looks like.

[Eric Schuler @ericschuler]

@titudeadjust @EpsilonTheory In practice, there isn’t really a limit. One way this works is that there are products (e.g. CDARS) that facilitate spreading out a customer’s large deposits across many different banks so they are all insured.

Not sure if this bank would engage in that, but most banks do.

[Eric Schuler @ericschuler]

@tlowdon @TheAtlantic @rachgutman Elon really needs to get this impersonating thing under control

[Eric Schuler @ericschuler]

@PauloMacro @UrbanKaoboy @profplum99 As you write that though, doesn’t it make you skeptical that they’ll actually allow it to happen? Yes, that’s what they should do & it would be much better on net in the long run.

But at bottom, the Fed is still Keynesian, right? And we all know how they feel about the long run.

[Eric Schuler @ericschuler]

@concodanomics @Frances_Coppola To a bank, the entry when receiving a deposit is equivalent to when a regular person receives a loan. It’s a balance sheet gross-up.

Assets & liabilities increase by the same amount. The difference is the bank’s liability is readily callable & a regular person’s usually isn’t.

[Eric Schuler @ericschuler]

@concodanomics @Frances_Coppola This is correct, but incomplete.

The entry when a customer deposits money is:
Debit Cash (Asset);
Credit Deposits (Liability)

Then when a loan is made, the entry is:
Debit Loan (Asset);
Credit Cash (Asset)

[Eric Schuler @ericschuler]

@HjgTweet @nycexpatmom It was covered, but more in alternative sources. @zerohedge effectively got banned from Twitter for their coverage (slightly different nominal pretext for the ban, but it was for a story related to WIV if memory serves).

[Eric Schuler @ericschuler]

@soncharm You will be delighted to learn then that the two are also closely linked together because Gemini used Genesis as its exclusive lending partner.

[Eric Schuler @ericschuler]

@LennartZHH @USMortality @elonmusk @KimDotcom @SamHarrisOrg There’s no law that requires him to be unbanned, but there are laws around what things are always criminal & have to be taken down (like directly inciting violence).

So the suggestion is to have Twitter adopt 1st Amendment rules (that limit what gov can ban) as Twitter’s policy.

[Eric Schuler @ericschuler]

@contrarian4data Before "New Twitter" as he calls it, his approach of only reading feedback from blue-checks probably prevented him from encountering data-backed contrarian takes on covid policy.

It must be a very disorienting experience for him now.

[Eric Schuler @ericschuler]

@koalaconomist @WifeyAlpha New to following @WifeyAlpha and I keep seeing this reference.

Could you explain it to me? Is the joke because experienced traders don’t use stop losses at all or just that they wouldn’t set them so close to the initial entry?

[Eric Schuler @ericschuler]

@KelleyKga I mean, given that 100% of the 8 mice in their study got infected, isn’t this just the only claim they have left?

There’s not good evidence for it, but there’s not 100% certain evidence against it so I guess that’s good enough for them to run with it.

[Eric Schuler @ericschuler]

@BobEUnlimited When they reach the statutory limit on debt in a month or so, do you know if that will immediately impact the issuance plans or does it not start to have an effect until the Treasury’s “extraordinary measures” are exhausted a couple quarters later?

[Eric Schuler @ericschuler]

@LynAldenContact If they don’t have an offshore account, perhaps a self-custodied stablecoin like USDC or Paxos USD.

Not sure if the barrier to entry for that is higher than opening an offshore account though, admittedly.

What would your answer be?

[Eric Schuler @ericschuler]

@PauloMacro @UrbanKaoboy @BurggrabenH For policy though, I’m not sure what it means that they’re okay reporting higher figures.

Could be a pretext for a harsher lockdown—or could also be part of a pivot to say “now that Omicron BA.X is here, cases are unavoidable, but it’s okay because deaths are low.”

[Eric Schuler @ericschuler]

@PauloMacro @UrbanKaoboy @BurggrabenH Plus, China’s cases aren’t an independent value. Their cases have been implausibly low (and not mirrored by any other major country) since the start.

If their numbers are rising, it’s more a signal that they’re okay w/ showing higher cases than a change in the underlying reality

[Eric Schuler @ericschuler]

@Bhavik0880 One idea I've seen that seems plausible given some of the non-crypto names with exposure here:
https://t.co/1mkv0Tyq4E

[Kuppy @hkuppy]

5) Just saying, a reckoning is coming. Everyone thinks FTX/Alameda is contained to crypto. I think it jumps the fence into PE/VC. You’ll be stunned at the fraud that gets uncovered…

[Eric Schuler @ericschuler]

@Quantling @Bitfinexed @conorsen The bank is just an intermediary. Except for central banks, which are a special case, regular banks do not have the ability to create and destroy money in a sense that would make banking (as conventionally understood) impossible with crypto.

[Eric Schuler @ericschuler]

@Quantling @Bitfinexed @conorsen I used to think this too, but it’s not correct. It misunderstands the accounting.

You deposit money with a bank; they transfer it out when they give a loan. Now the bank owes you money & the borrower owes the bank. But no net assets were created, so possible w/ crypto or fiat.

[Eric Schuler @ericschuler]

@josephwang Doesn’t it mean that their overall balance sheet will shrink at a slightly slower pace then, because they’re letting Tsys / MBS roll off but it’s now partly offset by accruing a negative liability to the Treasury?

[Eric Schuler @ericschuler]

@josephwang --random question for you on QT.

Now that the Fed loses $2.5B a week due to negative NIM and it becomes a contra-liability / asset, how do you think this affects QT?

Is the effective runoff cap now ~$10B lower per month while the losses occur?

[Eric Schuler @ericschuler]

@LakiPolitis @UrbanKaoboy @PauloMacro @WifeyAlpha Yeah, same here. I feel like I’ve only had success (and not a lot) approaching it with calendar spreads against SPY / QQQ. Trading it directly via index options on vix or the ETF/ETNs seems like it should be easier, but like you, I haven’t done very well with that.