Ernesto Martinez

Senior Software engineer building predictive sports models.
Live for MLB now, NFL, NBA, NHL next.
Here to help fans
**MODEL DOES NOT USE AI FOR PREDICTIONS**

[Ernesto Martinez @ernestosaas]

Cool Useful Data for Parlay Makers
#MLBall

[Ernesto Martinez @ernestosaas]

The Dodgers have not played a single extra-inning game all season. Zero across 90 games. Every other team has played at least three, and a few are past a dozen. At 59-31 they keep settling it in nine. They host San Diego tonight.

#MLB #MLBPicks

[Ernesto Martinez @ernestosaas]

Two months of live results in. The top moneyline calls sit 118-63, about 65 percent. The over/unders are basically a coin flip at 324-322 across 646 games. The edge has lived on the moneyline side. Totals are just an efficient market most nights.

#MLB #MLBPicks

[Ernesto Martinez @ernestosaas]

One of the filters we track went 4-0 this week and sits 23-4 on the season, about 77 percent at flat stakes. It only turns up a few plays a week, so the sample stays thin and it will cool. Two months in, it keeps finding the right spots.

#MLB #MLBPicks

[Ernesto Martinez @ernestosaas]

Jesús Luzardo has a 6.60 ERA at home this year and a 1.55 on the road. Eight starts in Philadelphia, hit hard. Nine away from it, nearly untouchable. He is on the road in Kansas City tonight, the good side of that split.

#MLB #MLBPicks

[Ernesto Martinez @ernestosaas]

The moneyline model put together one of its better weeks, the top calls went 16-7. The totals side was a coin flip in the same stretch at 48-47. Season the top baseball picks sit at 117-62, about 65 percent. Some weeks the favorites just show up.

#MLB #MLBPicks

[Ernesto Martinez @ernestosaas]

The tightest tier of our baseball calls went 4-4 this week, dead even. The broader high-confidence board ran 17-9 in the same stretch. Season the sharp tier sits at 60 percent, the wider one at 65. Sharper filter, not always the better one.

#MLB #MLBPicks

[Ernesto Martinez @ernestosaas]

Logan Webb has a 0.71 ERA over his last 5 starts and a 0.64 first-inning ERA this year. Tonight he pitches at Coors Field, the third-highest scoring park in baseball at 11 runs a game. The hottest arm on the slate, walking into the thin air.

#MLB #MLBPicks

[Ernesto Martinez @ernestosaas]

Honest look at the over/unders. The totals model went 4-5 yesterday, 49-47 over the last week, and 310-307 on the season across 617 games. Just about a coin flip. Totals are one of the more efficient markets, and a full season shows it.

#MLB #MLBPicks

[Ernesto Martinez @ernestosaas]

The tightest spot filter the model tracks went 4-0 this week and sits 23-2 on the season. It only surfaces a couple of plays a week, so the sample is small and will regress. Two months in, it has been one of the steadier reads on the board.

#MLB #MLBPicks

[Ernesto Martinez @ernestosaas]

Washington is 17-25 at home this year, a .405 club. On the road they flip to 28-18, .609. The most road-tilted split in baseball. The odd part: their home park is the highest scoring in MLB, and they still play better away from it.

#MLB #MLBPicks

[Ernesto Martinez @ernestosaas]

Better day on the moneyline yesterday, the top calls went 2-1. The totals side was the soft spot at 5-9. Season the highest-confidence baseball picks sit at 114-61, a touch over 65 percent. Two markets, and most days one carries the other.

#MLB #MLBPicks

[Ernesto Martinez @ernestosaas]

The totals model ground out a slim week, 55-47 on over/unders. Yesterday was the bright spot at 11-4, one of its cleaner reads on run scoring. Totals are an efficient market most nights, so a modest edge over a full week is about the read there.

#MLB #MLBPicks

[Ernesto Martinez @ernestosaas]

Jacob Misiorowski has a 1.45 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP over 15 starts for Milwaukee, striking out 13.35 per nine. Missing that many bats while allowing almost no baserunners rarely comes from one arm. The question is whether he holds it across a full season.

#MLB #MLBPicks

[Ernesto Martinez @ernestosaas]

The tighter elite calls cooled this week, 3-5 over the last seven days. Season they sit 23-16, a shade under 60 percent. The broader high-confidence board has held up better at 112-60. Some weeks the sharpest reads are the ones that miss.

#MLB #MLBPicks

[Ernesto Martinez @ernestosaas]

One of the setups the model flags is 21-5 since the start of May, a shade over 64 percent return at flat stakes across 26 plays. Two months is enough to take it seriously. Not enough to bank on it. July will tell me more than the first half did.

#MLB #MLBPicks

[Ernesto Martinez @ernestosaas]

Wind does more at the ballpark than people give it credit for. With it blowing out this year, games are averaging 9.5 runs. Blowing in, 8.5. Close to a full run a game, separated by nothing but which way the flags are pointing.

#MLB #MLBPicks

[Ernesto Martinez @ernestosaas]

The highest-confidence moneyline picks closed the week at 12-9, a slim edge, though yesterday ran a clean 4-0. The totals went the other way at 46-50. Season still holds at 109-58, about 65 percent. Even a good model gives a slow week back now and then.

#MLB #MLBPicks

[Ernesto Martinez @ernestosaas]

One of the spot filters the model runs is 18-4 on the season, a 63 percent return at flat stakes. That is 22 calls across two months, small enough that it will cool off. But as a read on which spots are worth backing, it has held from May into late June.

[Ernesto Martinez @ernestosaas]

Baseball this year keeps splitting to the extremes. Of 1,249 games, 27 percent have been decided by a single run and 30 percent have been blowouts of five or more. Add those up and more than half the league's games are either nailbiters or routs.

[Ernesto Martinez @ernestosaas]

Good day on the moneyline yesterday, the top calls went 3-1. The totals model gave some back at 6-9. Zoom out and the highest-confidence picks sit at 105-58 on the season, a touch under 65 percent. Even a good run loses one in three.