ernst imfeld

Angel Investor Group
-Options Market New York Institute of Finance March 1986
-Investment Analysis New York Institute of Finance Juli 1983
-Reg.Rep. NASD 1981

[ernst imfeld @ernstimfeld]

@pakpakchicken Brilliant - The best calculation I have seen - Thanks

[Chicken Genius @pakpakchicken]

Most detailed, accurate calculation of $SATS i’ve seen.

Includes all concerns of tax, debt after sale and whatever minimal dilution.

This is a short squeeze in the making. I’ll explain the thesis next time.

[ernst imfeld @ernstimfeld]

MRVL NVDA CEO Jensen Huang mentioned at Computex in Taipei as a potential future trillion-dollar chip company. I would never bet against NVDA and the companies NVDA has a stake in .The consolidation could be close coming to an end and new upward momentum should kick in.

[HN @PassionAndLuck]

$SATS NAV Analysis

With the SpaceX / SPCX IPO scheduled for 6/12, I want to highlight what may be the most undervalued stock in the S&P 500.

Mcap is only 33B.

$SATS will own approximately 2% of SpaceX / SPCX.

According to the SPCX prospectus, SPCX will acquire spectrum from SATS in exchange for 261.8M shares of SPCX stock, approximately $8.5B in cash, and an additional roughly $2.0B in cash to cover interest payments that SATS was expected to make.

In addition, SATS is expected to sell approximately $23B of spectrum to $T. That transaction was approved by the FCC on 5/12 and is expected to receive final approval around 6/11, leading to the formal closing of the transaction.

Now, let’s do the math.

My base NAV assumptions:

• SPCX ownership equivalent: approximately 2%

• SATS basic shares outstanding: 298M

• Fully diluted share count after convertible debt conversion: 348M
I use 348M shares for the calculation below.

• Cash proceeds from spectrum sales to $T and $SPCX:
approximately $23B from $T
approximately $8B of cash from $SPCX
total: approximately $31B

• If the convertible debt converts into equity, net cash after debt minus cash becomes approximately $11B

• Regulatory / escrow / contingent liability haircut: -$2.5B

• Net cash after haircut: approximately $8.5B

• Residual operating business value: $10B
2026 Q1 operating income of approximately $300M × 4 quarters × 8x multiple

• Even after selling spectrum to $T and $SPCX, SATS will still retain residual spectrum assets. The most notable example is AWS-3 paired spectrum, which SATS previously planned to sell to $VZ for approximately $9.8B.

If we conservatively value the remaining spectrum at $10B, that alone adds approximately $28.7 per share of NAV based on 348M shares.

Formula:

SATS NAV
= {SPCX market cap × 2% + net cash after haircut + residual operating business value + remaining spectrum value} / 348M shares

= {SPCX market cap × 2% + $8.5B + $10B + $10B} / 348M shares

SATS NAV by SPCX market cap:

• SPCX $2.0T → SATS approximately $197
• SPCX $2.25T → SATS approximately $211
• SPCX $2.5T → SATS approximately $226
• SPCX $2.75T → SATS approximately $240
• SPCX $3.0T → SATS approximately $254

The key point is that this is not a normal NAV discount trade.

Even if SPCX prices the IPO around $1.75T, the actual initial float could be extremely thin.

Most of the IPO shares are likely to be pre-allocated to institutional and retail investors.

That means the number of shares actually available in the open market on IPO day could be far smaller than the headline IPO size suggests.

The real question is not:

“How many SPCX shares will be issued?”

The real question is:

“What is the actual dollar value of SPCX shares available to buy in the open market on IPO day?”

If the day-one public float is limited, and global institutions, retail investors, Musk-related capital, AI funds, and space-theme capital all rush in, SPCX could temporarily trade at $2.5T–$3.0T or even higher.

The possibility of early Nasdaq-100 inclusion should also not be ignored.

Nasdaq recently changed its rules to make it easier for mega-cap IPOs to be added to the index early.

If SPCX shows a massive market cap and sufficient liquidity soon after listing, it could become a candidate for index inclusion without waiting for the regular annual rebalance.

That said, if SPCX’s float is extremely low, it will likely be affected by float-adjusted weighting and index weight limits.

So Nasdaq-100 inclusion alone should not be used to justify the entire thesis.

Still, the expectation of index inclusion could trigger front-running by institutions, ETFs, and event-driven funds.

If that happens, SPCX supply-demand could tighten further, and SATS NAV would be repriced in real time.

[ernst imfeld @ernstimfeld]

Friday was one of the worst days for years for the NASDAQ. I guess we will see some range trading within 28000 and 30800. What happens afterwards maybe another 10% but that would give us some names cheap. MRVL, VRT, NOK, Now, Oklo, UUU and more.

[ernst imfeld @ernstimfeld]

NOKIA - NOK /Nyse - already had a strong move, however is now breaking a heavy resistance point going back to the year 2009-2010. Comes to it, the stock shows a 12 years base building. The company saw a 49% jump in AI and cloud revenue in Q1 and 2 Insider buying between $ 15-16

[ernst imfeld @ernstimfeld]

TSLA - Ready to break this resistance. Whatever reasons may be given afterwards there are plenty to justify a much higher price. This 5 months consolidation is coming to an end.

[ernst imfeld @ernstimfeld]

Nike got beaten down, however, ahead of the FIFA World Cup 2026 maybe NIKE will gather strength for various and obvious reasons. During April, 4 Insiders bought a total of 2.73 Mio shs at prices between $ 42 - 44.

[ernst imfeld @ernstimfeld]

@StockOptions888 MU

[ernst imfeld @ernstimfeld]

It,s too low . It is estimated that the opening price will be around 2 B – (Sats US$ 136) Based on their stake in SpaceX the following calculation can be made. Base Case equal $ 180.- Bull-Case $ 270 and Ultra Bull Case $ 410.

[ernst imfeld @ernstimfeld]

The SpaceX IPO is around the corner. The best way to participate in this is by buying Sats. The ultimate catalyst just dropped: the FCC officially approved SATS 39;s landmark $40B spectrum deal with ATT and SpaceX! It is now a pure play proxy for the booming space economy.

[ernst imfeld @ernstimfeld]

ServiceNow - NOW - While todays market was down - NOW - was up 5 %. The stock got beaten down, but we know AI can do amazing things. The question is, what can it do for YOUR business? See what NVIDIA and ServiceNow are doing together to bring AI to the Enterprise. NOW is a gift

[ernst imfeld @ernstimfeld]

@StockOptionCole Wondering when he will cover his short Nvda position.

[ernst imfeld @ernstimfeld]

NVDA: Ready to outperform again. The growth rate is strong and not reflected in the recent P/E - First target $ 300

[ernst imfeld @ernstimfeld]

Millennial Potash - MLP Canada - First time mentioned when the stock was below CAD 1 - The weekly looks like a bull-flag . Break of CAD 2.65 gives a readable target of CAD 5.00. Largest shareholder Ross-Hamou Jennings the former Asia chairman of Cargill Inc with 25 %.

[ernst imfeld @ernstimfeld]

@randgroup Thanks for sharing.

[ernst imfeld @ernstimfeld]

@EliAfriatISR Switzerland

[ernst imfeld @ernstimfeld]

@EliAfriatISR Only people that are successful are met with hate and Israel or Jews has proven many times that only the fittest survive. Just negate those stonhege-idiots and other losers

[ernst imfeld @ernstimfeld]

NOW - Service Now - I guess it is time to have a look at certain software companies who got beaten down.

[ernst imfeld @ernstimfeld]

Oil on its way down to at least $ 75 Huge S-H-S Formation . Watch the $ 75 line if tested - if this breaks we will fall below $ 50