BernoulliPearson

working macro thoughts. don’t follow.

[BernoulliPearson @ertzeela]

@lisaabramowicz1 Boomers looking at bonds right now

[BernoulliPearson @ertzeela]

Kashkari: "I can tell AI 'take my kids & put them on a horse...eating strawberry ice cream'...it takes 1 minute...to create a 6 second video...It takes as much electricity as running your dryer for an hour."

Full disclosure, this video took about 2 hours of dryer time.

[BernoulliPearson @ertzeela]

Liesman: "What good does it do to raise rates for people in AI... a quarter point is like I'm laughing at you. Then you say 'your mortgage will be 7.5% - 7.75%, not 7%'...that matters a lot."

Kashkari: "we have to use the tools we have, & monetary policy is a blunt instrument"

[CNBC @CNBC]

Watch Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari discuss the economy and monetary policy https://t.co/nQf8OrU7au

[BernoulliPearson @ertzeela]

Kashkari: "higher interest rates are the mechanism by which capital gets reallocated in a market economy to its most productive use...capital that would have gone to build homes...to instead build data centers...it's not the Fed's job to stop that"

[BernoulliPearson @ertzeela]

@themarketear @zerohedge “…dormant VIX, while MOVE has exploded higher.”

[BernoulliPearson @ertzeela]

Or maybe those people didn’t get new jobs, but their kids did.

[BernoulliPearson @ertzeela]

@TheStalwart at the same time, the people who lit the gas lamps and picked up the horse poop found new jobs.

[BernoulliPearson @ertzeela]

@DeItaone Choo Choo

[BernoulliPearson @ertzeela]

$TSLA eras, avg close:

S&P entry: market buys hype ($239)
Musk sells: stock holds up ($284)
Semi to election: priced like carmaker ($209)
Post-election: bet on friendlier DC ($358)
Probe era: full price for robotaxi/AI despite noise ($414)

Now $351: near post-election avg

[BernoulliPearson @ertzeela]

@zerohedge cost-benefit analysis: extra gas vs cheaper BigMac

[BernoulliPearson @ertzeela]

Watching $HBAN while blackout period is in effect and $KRE is down.

[BernoulliPearson @ertzeela]

Huntington Bancshares $HBAN reduces revenue growth outlook.

Stephen Steinour, CEO, 2Q26 Earnings Call: "Second half loan generation is typically much better"

[BernoulliPearson @ertzeela]

@zerohedge Jim Cramer and Rick Santelli looking at bonds right now

[BernoulliPearson @ertzeela]

@annmarie Same rate. Twice the wait. https://t.co/JL4Qsd7nrx

[BernoulliPearson @ertzeela]

Housing Affordability: Normal rate. Abnormal wait.

Top: rates look normal, the premium over the 10-yr* is easing & the payment as % of income is near average.

Bottom: homes cost 4.8x income vs 3.9x in the '90s, we save less, & a down payment takes ~20 years vs ~10.

[BernoulliPearson @ertzeela]

@jimcramer @RickSantelli & every other retiree looking at bonds right now

[BernoulliPearson @ertzeela]

@MikeZaccardi Can someone tell the boomers that inflation will come down if they stop spending and buy bonds?

War bonds of the past = millennial bonds of today. #savethefuture

[BernoulliPearson @ertzeela]

@MikeZaccardi Can someone tell the boomers that inflation will come down if they stop spending and buy bonds?

War bonds of the past = millennial bonds of today. #savethefuture

[BernoulliPearson @ertzeela]

@carlquintanilla regarding what banks can say. Here is what $FHN CFO said.

[BernoulliPearson @ertzeela]

Timur Braziler, UBS: "what does the margin trajectory look like with one hike?"

Hope Dmuchowski, CFO: "the loan side reprices up first and the deposit price will lag... So you'll have some margin expansion in that first quarter, and then you'll see it compress back"

[BernoulliPearson @ertzeela]

@NoelSmith AI = productivity

[BernoulliPearson @ertzeela]

@LizAnnSonders @MBAMortgage Same rate. Twice the wait.

[BernoulliPearson @ertzeela]

Housing Affordability: Normal rate. Abnormal wait.

Top: rates look normal, the premium over the 10-yr* is easing & the payment as % of income is near average.

Bottom: homes cost 4.8x income vs 3.9x in the '90s, we save less, & a down payment takes ~20 years vs ~10.

[BernoulliPearson @ertzeela]

@MikeZaccardi Powell at Harvard 3/30/26: "energy shocks have tended to come & go pretty quickly. Monetary policy works with long & variable lags famously"

[BernoulliPearson @ertzeela]

@unusual_whales The market could use some float