Rawl

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[Rawl @EtherRawl]

When you first got into this space, the first thing that probably caught your eye were those flashy indicators with the buy and sell arrows. Then you dove deeper RSI, Bollinger Bands, trendlines, chart patterns you tried to make sense of them all. Sometimes they worked, sometimes they didn’t.

But here’s the real problem: some people are still stuck believing those indicators will give them a 50%+ win rate on every trade. And even worse, I see people who’ve been doing this for 4, 6, even more years still relying solely on indicators.

No one’s saying you can’t use them as confluence but if you rely on them completely, you’re basically donating money to the market.

[Rawl @EtherRawl]

Just an observation I had about gold and Bitcoin’s behavior following gold’s 2020 peak: back then, gold topped out first while Bitcoin held near its range high. Shortly after, Bitcoin corrected around 20%. Once gold printed its first lower high, Bitcoin along with the broader crypto market began its major run.

Right now, the setup appears similar. However, this time exchanges and market makers seemed to have priced in the correction -18% before gold actually topped, likely anticipating what was to come. The key question now is how gold’s next move unfolds.

If we see a bounce in gold whether it forms a lower high or even pushes for a double top (potentially serving as “exit liquidity”) and Bitcoin continues to hold within its current range for a few more days, especially as we approach month-end, then the same playbook could be setting up again. That would likely trigger the final leg higher across the crypto market, reinforcing a broader risk-on environment.

[Rawl @EtherRawl]

Not even 24 hours since I posted this, and my followers have skyrocketed by over 500 just like that… THIS is how altseason feels? y’all are going absolutely wild, much love to everyone🫰

[Rawl @EtherRawl]

The statement I made yesterday had some people reacting in disbelief and I get it. The current price action and sentiment don’t really look like what’s happening underneath. But like I said a few weeks back, give it some time. Once people get used to the lower prices for about 21 days after the crash, things will start shifting. By the end of this month, or at max mid-November, we’ll likely see a pivotal move.

By the winter holidays, some assets will already be back near their pre-crash levels a few might even outperform them. Then, as the holidays kick in, expect one or two weeks of sideways action since most investors will be taking a break.

After that comes the final stage of the cycle: the blow-off top for altcoins and the market as a whole. That phase could last more than 36 days but less than three months roughly January through mid or late February.

Then comes distribution for about two to three weeks, followed by a crash between March and April. That crash could reset the markets, forcing interest back near 1% (either slightly below or above), which would trigger a new wave of aggressive money printing even bigger than what we saw during covid, Retails had to suffer years in order to have a short lived bear market.

[Rawl @EtherRawl]

A golden tip for my 3,777 followers

Ever heard of the 6–9 month interest rate window? If not, pay close attention. Every time the Federal Reserve gives an FOMC speech, you hear about the elusive “soft landing.” But here’s the reality:

The only fully successful soft landing in U.S. history happened in 1994–1995 under Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan. Every other attempt? Either debatable or outright failed, often triggering a recession. So when you hear “soft landing,” think of it as a 1 in 9 chance of actually happening without issues—the rest quietly fail.

Let’s break it down with cycles and numbers:

-US Interest Rates (USINTR) are the heartbeat of the market they drive liquidity and move everything.

--> 2008: Rates started to be cut with promises of a soft landing. Didn’t happen—hello, housing bubble. The first cut fell right into the 6–9 month window before disaster hit.

--> 2019: The Fed kept talking soft landing at every conference… until COVID-19 caused a sharp crash, global chaos, and massive liquidity printing. Again, the first rate cut fell into that 6–9 month window.

¿¿¿ Now, you might ask yourself: what about 2024/2025? Rates were cut for 12 months and nothing happened… yet. That’s because we had a platform of no cuts from December 2024 to August/September 2025, and only now are the first official cuts happening.

Here comes the forgotten legend: after 6–9 months, the window closes, triggering the long-awaited “NO SOFT LANDING,” where everything cracks due to a manufactured event (cyberattack, pandemic, etc.). This timestamp has already started, and the 245-day marker points toward March/April 2026.

Why is this important? Because during this 6–9 month window, the market tends to move in one clear direction.

Thx for listening.

[Rawl @EtherRawl]

You know how it is with people and the energy around us "you attract what you are". When I was a kid, I was restless and always getting into trouble, doing bad things, and of course that brought bad consequences.

But as I grew older, things changed. Now, even when I try to feel depressed, I can’t I always end up seeing the good side of everything, and the energy that comes back to me is positive. So yeah, if you don’t change yourself, you won’t change your future. When you start focusing on good energy, good things naturally follow.

[Rawl @EtherRawl]

I might be missing something, but I honestly don’t understand your point of view. Why would I call altcoin season after altcoins have already moved 3x–5x from here? Why wait until everyone is calling it when the pumps are obvious? That makes no sense to me.

What you’re basically asking is for me to stay quiet now, where it actually matters, and only “call it” after altcoins are already up 40–80%, just so we have some kind of “confirmation” that they’ll go 3x–5x later? How does that make any sense?

Sorry, but I’ll never side with the crowd. I call things when they’re supposed to be called at the bottom, when everyone’s hating and I’ll call the bear market at the top, when people think we’re going higher. That’s just how I do it.

[Rawl @EtherRawl]

It was never really an altcoin season we’ve never been under 4% interest rates 🤓. I’ve been telling this story for months, and now that I’m finally calling the start of altcoin season, nobody believes me… until it’s too late and we’re already at the top.

[Rawl @EtherRawl]

Did y’all know the best gold signal just flashed two days ago? Google Trends for the keyword “gold” hit a level of 100 something we haven’t seen in decades. What does that mean? It likely signals that gold is topping out, as retail interest and sentiment hit extreme bullish levels.

While gold stagnates, the other side of the market the “risk-on” assets could be gearing up for a strong rally. Everyone’s calling for lower targets and the start of a new bear market, but this phase could actually be the opposite. The biggest gains are often made when sentiment is at its worst.

Holding select risk assets right now especially altcoins and low market-cap stocks might deliver returns that “safe haven” assets haven’t produced in 3–4 years.

Interest rates look ready to fall below 4%, gold appears to have peaked (money flow distribution), Bitcoin is maintaining its bullish trend, and sentiment is at rock bottom. Leverage has been flushed out.

After more than two years of navigating this market selling local tops, buying local bottoms I can finally relax and watch everything take off.

[Rawl @EtherRawl]

Since nobody’s got the guts to say it yet, I’ll say it here at the bottom: happy altcoin season, y’all🫰. When everyone’s calling it at the top, I’ll be the one flipping and saying, “Happy bear market.” Bookmarking this one we’ll revisit it.

[Rawl @EtherRawl]

I’m not sure how many of you are familiar with video games, but there’s a game on Steam called Counter-Strike that has its own marketplace where players can buy and sell in-game skins directly with each other.

Now, here’s what I’ve noticed before February, when the crypto market (especially altcoins) had that big rally driven by the AI narrative, something interesting happened. The prices of certain Counter-Strike skins started pumping and shortly after, the crypto market followed.

Recently, the game got a major update related to skins and item drops. China saw this as an opportunity, and right now, they’re driving up the prices of these skins. Some that used to be worth just $1 or $2 shot up to $400 and then crashed right back down.

Sound familiar? Yeah, it’s just like an altcoin season. Cheap assets skyrocket in a short period, and when everyone starts hearing about the pumps, they rush in thinking prices will go even higher. Then comes the “crime season” when the early players dump, and prices collapse even faster than they rose.

My theory remains the same as last year: our bags are going to be bought by the new retail investors coming from China right at the top.

[Rawl @EtherRawl]

This will probably be the last time I try to give someone a reality check. From now on, if you listen good for you. If you don’t that’s on you.

First of all, I’ve never claimed to be the “good guy.” I know I am toxic but that’s part of the game. A real coach or military trainer doesn’t pat you on the back and say, “Good job.” They push you by reminding you that you’re still weak because that’s how you grow.

And honestly, I haven’t seen even 1% improvement from you. Every time you talk about your UNI, ENA, or whatever coin you hold not performing. Meanwhile, others I’ve taught have grown massively. One learned to identify new coins and entry points, even called “the crash” by himself by targeting lower levels showing he’s mentally prepared for his portfolio to take hits. Another started connecting the dots, seeing the bigger picture.

That’s what progress looks like people who stop complaining about their coins and start learning: market structure, psychology, indicators, discipline. You say you value learning, but your actions don’t show it.

Now, about my trades since you’re so curious about my wins and losses. I’m not a robot; I take losses too. For example, TIA was my worst position for over a year. When HYPE was at the bottom, I cut TIA and went all in on HYPE. I don’t get attached to coins. I don’t care where the money comes from every coin is just an opportunity.

I bought FET under $0.20 and sold above $2.5. I bought SUI under $0.50 in late 2023, sold around $2, said I’d buy back if it dropped under $0.70 and when it did, I went in again. Same with ENA accumulated under $0.30, sold above $1, then added back under $0.50. Recently, I took profits around $0.80–$0.90, along with HYPE at $41–$43.

Did I blow my profits on random memecoins? No. I reinvest slowly, buying pullbacks, keeping liquidity on the side. Sure, I’ve taken losses on some longs, but on spot I’m stable. My strategy isn’t for everyone if you think you can buy once and get rich overnight, you’re wrong. This game takes patience and discipline. I’ll keep adding at local bottoms and taking profits at local tops, because when altcoin season hits, I’ll be ready to relax.

And let’s talk risk management something most people ignore. I always tell everyone: hold BTC and ETH first. I personally hold ETH, not BTC, but the principle stands. Don’t go all-in on random coins. Pick 5–7 from the top 50–100 and ride them long-term. For low caps under $100M market cap, don’t risk more than 2–3% of your portfolio.

No one’s forced to stay here unfollow anytime. If you’re after quick money, go find someone selling signals. I play the long game, see the bigger picture, and don’t panic during crashes because I know what comes next.

Every cycle it’s the same people think they’ll get rich overnight, they ape in everything, even borrow money to buy tops, then end up 70% down and in debt. And guess what? The cycle keeps repeating. It’s not the end of crypto, not by a long shot. The market will keep evolving and those who refuse to learn will keep losing.

[Rawl @EtherRawl]

The CLANKERS are CLANKING once again. Some of you are just... beyond saving in this financial space it’s like talking to a wall. This one guy’s in my Coms every day asking why his UNI bag isn’t moving 😭 Like bro, did you even read a single post we’ve made? Everyone’s just chasing the green paper, but nobody actually understands how a financial market works 😂

He really thinks he’s gonna buy once and retire next week. Ever heard of accumulation and distribution? You think markets move because someone wishes them to? NOOOO. Market makers move markets in cyclical waves.

First, the strong assets move then your beloved shitcoin bags might follow. But here’s the thing: those strong assets can climb for years while your coins sit flat. Then, in a tiny window of a few months, they do what the strong assets built up to over four years

I swear, these clankers… I can’t grasp them anymore. Blank brains. Zero perception.

[Rawl @EtherRawl]

Probably nothing, just throwing this out there, have a great night!🦢✨

[Rawl @EtherRawl]

Just went thru some comments and i see this? Umm okay i guess

[Rawl @EtherRawl]

The more I read through the comments, the clearer it becomes just how negative the sentiment is right now. Everyone’s frustrated, skeptical, and in disbelief I’ve never seen anything like this. It’s almost like the Great Depression, but in crypto especially among altcoins. Most of the negative comments come from people who sold or lost money, while the others, who understand the bigger picture, are still accumulating despite how tough things look. They know what usually comes next.

[Rawl @EtherRawl]

Basically, this post is explaining that everyone is currently buying and selling gold, creating huge trading volume as it is in a blow-off top phase. This phase usually comes right before a correction after a strong move to the upside, late buyers often end up getting punished.

Reading volume isn’t too complicated. When you see an asset with unusually high volume near its highs, it often signals the end of a run. For example, before Trump launched his meme coin, several others like Fartcoin, AI16z, Zerebro, GOAT + more pumped hard right after launch. But by the time most people heard about them, it was too late. The surge in volume came after the big move, meaning traders were buying the top.

On the flip side, when you see high volume at market lows sometimes even higher than during all-time highs that often means whales are accumulating quietly, anticipating a reversal. This pattern shows up across the board, from ETFs like TLT to lesser-known altcoins like XDB. It’s a sign of bottom formation and silent accumulation before the crowd catches on.

So, in gold’s case, this move is a textbook example: high volume during a blow-off top means everyone’s piling in, pushing prices up but without realizing they’re likely getting trapped.

As a final note, volume can also help identify support and resistance levels.

[Rawl @EtherRawl]

Alright, it seems like some people still don’t get it and honestly, it’s frustrating because I’ve been repeating this over and over. Yet, many keep getting manipulated by market makers.

Here’s the thing: people think a bear market is coming. But take a look at this chart this is FIL, a sleeping giant from the previous cycle. Despite countless new tokens popping up in the top 100, FIL is still there. Most of those newcomers eventually crash down into the top 300 or 400, but FIL holds strong. That alone tells you a story.

Now, try to look at this with an open mind. The market isn’t just psychological it’s also logical. From the top to the current price, FIL has corrected about 99.38%. So ask yourself: what kind of “bear market” are you expecting now? Do you think assets will go to -299%? Come on this is the bottom of the barrel. If you still believe a bear market is coming, you’re are stupid as fuck.

About the recent crash people are being easily manipulated by this move because they don’t understand the concept of liquidated leverage. This is just a natural market mechanism. Think of it like this: when an asset is down more than 90% from its top, who do you think holds most of the supply? Exchanges.

When prices are high, the supply is distributed among investors. But when the asset is this low, exchanges control most of it. That means they can move the price however they want. They keep prices steady, then suddenly crash them to zero in minutes just to liquidate long positions before new players step in and pump the asset.

Why would exchanges let the market move up with $19B in longs? Why give more profits to retail traders? Obviously, they won’t. The market wants to go up but after liquidating leveraged longs. The same logic applies at the top: before a real bear market begins, they push prices higher to wipe out shorts.

That’s the story in a nutshell. If you don’t see the buying opportunity in an asset that’s corrected this much, then honestly you’re missing the point entirely.

Thanks for listening. End of story.

[Rawl @EtherRawl]

I mean, what can I say… Are we really doubling down, going back to zero again, one thing after another? Nothing ever happens exactly the same way twice if it did, it would be too easy. That’s why cycles don’t truly repeat: they either change, or they merge into something new.