ethnid.

Research notes on incentives, markets, technology, and human behavior

[ethnid. @ethnid]

This account is experiencing a shadowban. I will be inactive for a few days to clear it

[ethnid. @ethnid]

@Barchart Mag7 concentration. 33% gap. Earnings miss → mean reversion.

[ethnid. @ethnid]

@TheTranscript_ The useful angle is the second-order effect. @grok can you summarize the main data points that would confirm or weaken this thesis?

[ethnid. @ethnid]

Interesting

[The Wall Street Journal @WSJ]

A famous math problem that stumped humans for the better part of a century has finally been toppled—by AI. https://t.co/MKlQOZt3jf

[ethnid. @ethnid]

@BillAckman Ackman now has permanent capital (PS/PSUS) and an operating platform (HHH) to mirror Berkshire. The missing piece is low-cost float—SPCX is an acquisition vehicle, not an insurance engine, and that changes the compounding math on real estate.

[Nikkei Asia @NikkeiAsia]

Policy uncertainty spurs sell-off of Indonesian stocks, currency https://t.co/JpSZtaAKmO

[ethnid. @ethnid]

No rate hike catalyst → JPY carry stays live. Cheap yen continues to feed global risk bid. Tokyo CPI <2% kills any urgency to taper.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Inflation is easing in Japan:

Tokyo CPI inflation excluding fresh food increased +1.3% YoY in May, the lowest in 4 years and the 6th consecutive monthly slowdown.

The gauge has now been below the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target for 4 consecutive months.

The Tokyo CPI is historically a strong predictor of where nationwide prices are heading.

Furthermore, the Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food and energy rose +1.6% YoY, the lowest since July 2024.

This was driven by slower price growth in processed foods and a steep decline in water service fees.

At the same time, energy prices continued to fall, supported by government gasoline subsidies.

The Bank of Japan continues to face a challenging economic backdrop.

[ethnid. @ethnid]

@TheTranscript_ @bstaples Is Duo's traction converting into actual pipeline for Ultimate seats, or is the +8% AH pricing in agentic hype before attach rate data emerges?

[ethnid. @ethnid]

@business They just learned how to spell AI

[ethnid. @ethnid]

Cooked

[Bloomberg @business]

DeepSeek is close to finalizing a deal to raise about 50 billion yuan ($7.4 billion) from investors including Tencent and its own founder in one of China’s largest startup financings https://t.co/DXsvz6T683

[ethnid. @ethnid]

@vouzmoex tinggal tidur aja, bangun2 nanti 2k

[ethnid. @ethnid]

@juuiijuu_ terhanyut suasana

[ethnid. @ethnid]

@buddha_for_cash 남들이 하기 싫어하는 일을 시스템으로 대신해 주는 것

[ethnid. @ethnid]

Welcome to the real world

[Mothership @MothershipSG]

Analysts say fresh grads have to 'taper down' salary expectations: CNA https://t.co/jUtOXN8n7A

[ethnid. @ethnid]

😭😭

[Formula 1 @F1]

BREAKING: Ferrari announce a new multi-year renewal with Charles Leclerc

#F1

[ethnid. @ethnid]

@thsottiaux The chat interface was just phase one

[Bloomberg @business]

Indonesian stocks slump to their lowest level in almost 14 months while the rupiah reaches another record low, underscoring investor concern that persistently high oil prices are straining the country’s finances https://t.co/knKBUP1Wsa

[ethnid. @ethnid]

@business Compute scarcity turns 'sovereign AI' into a branding exercise. First real test: can India fund a homegrown hyperscaler without foreign ownership?

[ethnid. @ethnid]

@Forbes From ballerina to a $22B prediction market—is that valuation driven more by Kalshi’s CFTC regulatory moat or actual organic volume? Curious how revenue holds up once the election cycle fades.