prediction markets are getting a lot of hype lately yes, but the core issues are still the same. liquidity and payouts.
just look at world cup markets on poly, kalshi etc and compare them to major sportsbooks. the difference is massive. even the odds are often better on traditional sites. try placing $1000 on a 50x outcome on poly and you'll get massive slippage like 50% sometimes + fees..
the reality is you cant provide deep liquidity across thousands of markets without market makers losing money, incentives, and of course manipulation. sure you can extract from users with $10 or $100 and 1000$ to bet with, which is their model, but really big bets cant be done on poly unless its one of the few hyped markets like the US election or once in a lifetime just like pumpfun etc.. and even then you still get big slippage on thinner markets.
thats why poly and others keep spending on rewards and lp programs and raising funds for it and for the hype/marketing..
once you realize that it becomes easier to understand why we chose a different path. ye maybe its less exciting like gambling, but we believe its the right long term vision.
i appreciate the support and feedback, i know you are a long term supporter.
In our journey to providing good data and a fun platform at the same time, we will introduce new mechanisms that bring more HILO token utility, as well as more flexibility and power to users. Stay tuned.
As our activity and user base grow, we’re rolling out new updates and features on Hilo every week.
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Battle is now live! Get matched daily against other players and compete for extra HIQ or losing HIQ.
We also pushed multiple updates. Check them out now in the app!
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As we push toward 1,000 weekly active users, we’ve rolled out several new updates:
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• Creating markets is now faster and easier.
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.@VitalikButerin is slowly going through the thought process we went through to build Hilo. Would be nice if he could see @hilomarket but there’s too much noise in this space. Anyway we’re going live next week. Stay tuned, we passed 5,000 users on the waiting list in a few days.
The world moves fast.
News breaks. Trends shift. Narratives flip.
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You want thousands.
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