My piece in @livemint today.
India faces 2 choices: Indian households blow up their savings, giving F2s minimal cost exits.
RBI blows up reserves, defending the Rupee, swapping SIP Rs into USD, giving F2s low cost exits.
Our projected import ( merch+ services) cover is just 6 months. Deep red zone.
Our projected BOP deficit is ~13% ( that's optimistic IMO) of current reserves. Even in 2008, it was just 8%.
So get the magnitude of the problem.
We can't fight this 2 front war. It's a ticket to the IMF.
Sensible choice: sacrifice the Stock Market. It never busts a nation.
FX crises always do.
Remember the 80s multiple Latam Tequila crises?
My reco:
RAISE taxation on MF investing.
Lower F2 new investment taxes.
( We used to have 0 tax on F2s and 20% on locals, in the 90s. We needed dollars then. We need dollars now. )
So:
Stock market crashes.
That's fine. F2s try selling but there are few willing buyers on the other side.
Selling into illiquidity always crashes prices.
But we don't lose USDs because quantum of selling absorbed will a fraction of today.
And at 30-40% lower prices, after a crash, the same selling F2s will become buyers.
I have seen this multiple times in my sell side life. " Market is cheap now": becomes the chatter in Manhattan after some champagne. " Let's go back in"
We saw $20 billion flow in 09-10.$ 10 billion in 13-14.
Each after a massive crash.
Crashes almost always trigger massive F2 inflows.
We must make this happen.
We simply can't give easy exits.
Exits must be made costly.
Even unviable.
That's the way it used to happen before.
I am prepared to endure the pain on my India holdings for a while.
Stock markets always come back in a year or two.
No currency ever regains the glory of its pre-crisis levels. Almost none.
Absorb this fact slowly.
Since March this year, I have put ~ Rs.200 cr into India.
I am fine to take pain on my holdings if it saves the country.
Are you, the Jain, the Gupta, the Patel, and millions others, prepared to do the same?
MF distributors? Asset Managers?
Are you prepared to let go your swarth for the country?
Because else, 12 months from now, we will be teetering at abyss' edge.
Hindustan Unilever β 0 return for 6 years
HDFC Bank β 0 return for 5 years
Kotak Bank β 0 return for 5 years
Asian Paints β 0 return for 5 years
Infosys β 0 return for 6 years
TCS β 0 return for 6 years
ITC β 0 return for 4 years
Reliance β 0 return for 4 years
Whatβs the lesson here?