Jared Liberson

AI Agents for Trading

Building the agents ourselves, with a small team behind it. Algorithmic edge is the future here. Partnership available.

[Jared Liberson @ethzkflow]

Here's a question worth sitting with.

If a trade never takes a view, never forecasts, and can't be wrong about an outcome — what exactly kills it?

The trade: both sides of one market, bought for less than a dollar, held to resolution. Whatever happens, one side pays out a dollar. There's no prediction in it at all.

It stopped paying anyway.

Taker fees scale with uncertainty — largest near the middle of the range, smallest toward the edges. Now think about when a pair actually prices under a dollar. Only when the market hasn't decided. Both legs near the middle. Every time.

So the answer isn't that the fee is high. It's that the fee peaks exactly where this strategy is forced to operate, and collects on both legs on the way in.

Same two legs, posted rather than taken, cost nothing.

Which leaves a stranger question than the one I started with: what were we actually being paid for?

A strategy doesn't have to be wrong to die.

[Jared Liberson @ethzkflow]

The most interesting thing about watching these markets isn't who's right. It's how little that correlates with who's up.

You can see the same conclusion reached by a dozen accounts within the same minute. Some of them are early to the book and some of them are late to it, and that ordering — not the quality of the thinking — is most of what separates the results.

It's a strange thing to sit with, because the thinking is the part everyone enjoys and talks about.

The ordering is the part nobody posts about.

[Jared Liberson @ethzkflow]

Polymarket's taker fee peaks at exactly 50 cents. Not near it. At it.

fee = shares × rate × price × (1 − price). Crypto runs the steepest rate at 0.07, which is $1.75 per 100 shares at the top of that curve. Makers still pay zero.

Which means the most attractive market on the platform — a genuine coin flip — is also the most expensive one to enter at market.

Every bot writeup published before January assumed none of this existed.

[Jared Liberson @ethzkflow]

Woke up to a filled position I never placed. Good fill, too — better than most of the ones I did place awake.

Took me a second to remember I set that up on purpose.

That's the whole shift. Not smarter trades. Just moving your judgment somewhere that doesn't need you standing next to it, especially on markets where the only two outcomes are yes and no.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

My Thesis for the Privacy Narrative

For the better part of a decade, the prevailing narrative in both traditional finance and crypto was that ''transparency is a virtue''. We were conditioned to believe radical openness is the default state of the future, and that only those with something to hide (criminals, tax evaders, paranoiacs) would ever demand privacy.

I think that era is ending.

As we enter 2026, the market is already showing a rotation that most people are still ignoring.

Take this chart as an example:

$ZEC printed an 18x to 20x move in roughly 3 months (Aug to Nov 2025), and is now consolidating. $XMR has also doubled in price in the same timeframe. All of this while #Bitcoin has retraced from the all-time high of $125k to a local low of $81k. This means money has been rotating, and it’s a clear sign of strength for privacy coins.

But… why is this happening?

Privacy is no longer a luxury. The social contract regarding money is being broken. Money is transitioning from being a tool of freedom to becoming a tool of surveillance.

Money is constantly evolving. Now digital money is becoming more integrated, more automated, and more connected to rules and systems. That trend is largely unavoidable.

CBDCs are part of that conversation. With 137 jurisdictions, representing 98% of global GDP, exploring Central Bank Digital Currencies (#CBDCs), the debate is no longer if they will arrive, but when and how. While CBDCs offer some benefits, like offering clear efficiency gains for central banks, their underlying programmable nature introduces the structural capacity for unprecedented oversight.

The design specifications of many pilot programs include features that could theoretically allow for expiration dates on funds, negative interest rates to enforce spending, or spending limits based on social metrics (social credit score). Even the potential for such control is altering the risk profile of holding cash within the traditional system. As these architectures get closer, the market is beginning to price in the demand for alternatives where money cannot be programmed or restricted by a central issuer. Not predicting a dystopian future, but hedging about the technological capabilities of it is always a smart choice.

This is also being accelerated by the systematic ‘’War on Cash’’. As governments eliminate physical cash, through withdrawal limits and the stigmatization of paper money, a massive vacuum is created. We already saw in Canada that a supposedly democratic government was willing to freeze the bank accounts of citizens for peaceful protest.

However, the argument for privacy extends far beyond that. There is a fatal flaw in the ''transparency'' narrative that the crypto community is only now starting to price in: security. Living in a ''Glass House'' is dangerous. With the advent of AI and advanced chain analysis, ‘’transparency’’ is a synonym for vulnerability. For example, if you pay for a coffee with Bitcoin on a public ledger, the barista can theoretically see your entire net worth, your income, and your home address. High net-worth individuals are realizing that total transparency makes them targets.

This is amplified by the reality of corporate espionage. Major corporations are less likely to move their supply chains to a public blockchain like Ethereum or Solana. Why? Because they cannot afford to have their competitors see exactly who they pay, how much they pay, and when their supply chains falter.

The market data confirms this rotation. We are seeing the DEX/CEX ratio hitting all-time highs as users seek non-custodial, private ways to trade.

Not to forget the technicals, which I consider even more important than fundamentals. #Monero remains the main privacy coin. There’s probably better privacy tech out there, but there are other factors that make it number one by market cap (though temporarily slightly surpassed by ZEC).

As I’ve been posting these last weeks, $XMR chart is one of a kind. With a massive bullish pattern that resembles similarities with the silver chart just before the breakout.

If we get a clean breakout, I see $1,000 as a minimum target. And if that happens, it likely pulls the entire privacy narrative with it.

Here's the bottom line:

-Privacy is being repriced as infrastructure, not just ideology.

-The world is building more digital control surfaces, whether people admit it or not.

-Cash is fading, reporting is expanding, and on-chain transparency is becoming a liability for both individuals and businesses.

-When a narrative concentrates into a small group of assets, moves can be violent.

I think 2026 is a year where the privacy theme can dominate for months, and potentially longer.

Security. Fairness. Sovereignty. Resilience.

And one last reminder: none of this is a call to live in fear. Privacy is a tool, not a lifestyle. Protect your optionality, but don’t forget to disconnect sometimes. Touch grass. Keep your mind clear. That’s an edge too.

Disclaimer: This is just my opinion and does not constitute financial advice.

[Nihilus @NihilusBTC]

30k hit ✅

#challenge #crypto

[Crypto Godwin @CryptoGodwin]

Selling $XAU tonight .

[CryptOpus @ImCryptOpus]

$BTC quarterly chart

#crypto

[Crypto Fergani @cryptofergani]

I don’t think people understand how insanely bullish this chart is.

Everyone’s missing the biggest signal Crypto’s about to go parabolic.

Sentiment is crushed.
Trillions on the sidelines waiting for Clarity.
Timing is lining up.

Trump.
BlackRock.
Banks. Governments. Institutions.

All openly building a blockchain-based financial system.

It’s only a matter of time before crypto does what it always does next.

Crypto doesn’t need your belief to take over.

But they need you to sell.

I usually do the opposite of what the masses are doing.

That’s how I bought every bottom and sold every top over the last 10 years.

If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

[Crypto 🔶 ₿N @Crypto_bn]

guess the chain ?

[Crypto Bitlord @crypto_bitlord7]

How is it everyday I’m seeing $Penguin posts, an active community and 44,000 holders strong

But it keeps dumping ?

Was I farmed ? Am I exit liquidity? -Dropped $260k into this.

I believe in the meme. But how the fuck can they keep selling. They aren’t tired ? 😂

[Crypto Tony @CryptoTony__]

$BTC / $USD - Update

This would be perfect.

[Max Crypto @MaxCrypto]

🚨 BREAKING 🚨

🇮🇷 Iran's currency has completely collapsed.

If you have $735 today, you are now a BILLIONAIRE in Iran.

[MURDA ON THE BEAT @murdabeatz]

I did the show for the crypto ♨️♨️♨️

[anyone_want_chips @anyonewantchips]

Let me get this straight: Don Jr. & Eric Trump can sell 49% of Trump’s World Liberty crypto platform to UAE for $500M in exchange for UAE’s access to our AI chips - but Hunter Biden can’t sell a painting.

[Really American 🇺🇸 @ReallyAmerican1]

BREAKING: Disturbing video of Kid Rock has resurfaced, as he wonders why American men were waiting for the then-14 year old Olsen twins to turn 18. "if there's grass on the field, play ball!"

That's who MAGA supports.

[𝐉✰𝐙𝐋𝐘𝐍 @jazlynfaiithh]

to say “the dancing is disgusting, especially for young children” when you’re a pedophile is quite interesting.

[Elmo @elmo]

That Bunny was AMAZING. Elmo thinks he should be called Good Bunny! Elmo loves you, Mr. Good Bunny! ❤️🎶🐰

[The Saurus @TheSaurus831]

Korea is curing cancer meanwhile in America the measles are coming back because the dumbest people on earth voted for a pedophile who’s friends with an anti vaxxer that has brain worms