Gary

Investment, Fintwit, Astrology, Photography

[Give A Shit About Nature @giveashitnature]

You can crash your yard's mosquito population without spraying a single chemical with a Mosquito Bucket of Doom.

Fill a 5-gallon bucket about two-thirds with water. Drop in a handful of grass clippings, leaves, or hay. Let it sit for a day, then drop in a Bti dunk (also called Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis, sold at any hardware store as "mosquito dunks," about $10 for six).

Mosquitoes are powerfully attracted to fermenting water and will lay their eggs in your bucket. Bti is a naturally occurring soil bacterium that produces a toxin that kills mosquito, blackfly, and fungus gnat larvae only.

This method doesn't harm bees, butterflies, fireflies, fish, frogs, birds, pets, or people. BTI dunks are EPA-approved for organic use and safe in animal water troughs and birdbaths.

One dunk lasts about 30 days. Top off the water as it evaporates. Cover with 1/2-in Mesh Hardware Cloth to prevent animals from getting trapped and put the bucket somewhere shady where pets and kids won't get into it.

The bucket becomes a mosquito magnet and a dead end. Compare that to fogging the entire yard with pyrethroids, which kills every insect in it, including the predators that eat mosquitoes.

Doug Tallamy's Homegrown National Park has been running the "Mosquito Bucket Challenge" since 2021. The more buckets in a neighborhood, the bigger the dent. One bucket per yard is a great start.

[Katyayani Shukla @aibytekat]

JOB INTERVIEW:
"Tell me about a conflict with a coworker."

Most candidates say:
"We had different working styles, but we sat down, talked it through, and found common ground. It made us stronger as a team."

THE WINNING ANSWER:

[Aidan @BuyingMyFreedom]

Repost - Because this matters.

The/ Your opportunity in Silver miners is here - From me - someone pretty good at this stuff...

So - you missed the BUY at $silj $25 - Stated below at highs... Okay, you are a dumb fuck... Don't worry - you are not alone.

Silver here has chopped people up into liver - and you 'plastic guru' has you getting minced in call options... great...

For Heroes - The Low risk opportunity presents Monday, probably pre market. Silver dips and rips - my expectation.

Why? We have had 5 waves up of $25 low - a 3 wave correction. We are now in wave 2 of wave 3... The next is wave 3 of 3 - The Confirmation. This is the wave you buy. Here... or Monday. Low risk, massive rewards.

P.S - I posted the buy on 24th March. The first 5 wave up.

I post less - but I am watching. This is your chance.

Don't Fuck Yourself. See quoted text.

Ride Well.

[Jhinster1 @johnjhin7]

$GSR, W. EXPECT HUGE RANGE TRADING ON SILVER.
$100 TO $53 RANGE. CHART SUGGEST LOWER SILVER MIGHT BE TEST BEFORE THE HIGH. ARE YOU SMART ENOUGH TO BUY SILVER NEAR MID $50S IF YOU GET THE CHANCES? FYI
#SILVER #GOLD

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

FEBRUARY 28, 2026

Don't forget to look up: a rare celestial spectacle is unfolding. Six planets are tracing a graceful arc across the evening sky.

[Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg]

NEXT STEPS (My guess):

1. Escalation is reframed as “insurrection”

Protests → riots → existential threat.
Language shifts from “law enforcement” to “saving the nation.”

(That rhetorical jump is decisive.)

⸻

2. Federal forces are expanded, not restrained

Agencies like Immigration and Customs Enforcement are:
•Given broader latitude
•Shielded from oversight
•Praised publicly for “strength”

Accountability becomes “undermining security.”

⸻

3. State resistance is portrayed as treason

Governors, mayors, judges who resist are labeled:
•“Obstructionists”
•“Enablers”
•“Enemies within”

Federalism is reframed as sabotage.

⸻

4. Emergency powers are invoked

Extraordinary authority is justified as temporary:
•Deployment of federal force
•Bypassing normal chains of command
•Suspension of norms, not constitutions

This is the legal hinge moment.

⸻

5. Opposition is criminalized, not debated

Political opponents become:
•“Insurrectionists”
•“Domestic threats”
•Subjects of surveillance or prosecution

Politics turns from persuasion → enforcement.

⸻

6. Media pressure intensifies

Critical outlets are:
•Delegitimized
•Threatened with access loss or legal pressure
•Blamed for unrest

Supportive media becomes the “voice of order.”

⸻

7. Elections are framed as unsafe or illegitimate

Narrative appears:

“We cannot allow chaos to decide our future.”

This can justify:
•Federal intervention
•Questioning outcomes
•Extraordinary “security measures”

⸻

8. Loyalty tests spread through institutions

Civil servants, law enforcement, military leadership face a choice:
•Personal loyalty
•Or removal/marginalization

Neutrality quietly disappears.

⸻

9. Violence becomes asymmetric

Pro-government force is excused as “restoring order.”
Opposition force is labeled terrorism.

Same act. Different label.

⸻

10. The public adapts

This is the most dangerous step.

People don’t cheer dictatorship — they normalize it:
•“At least there’s order”
•“It’s temporary”
•“What choice do we have?”

At that point, reversal becomes very hard.

⸻

The core insight

Authoritarian takeovers don’t feel like coups.
They feel like crisis management.

They succeed when:
•Fear outruns law
•Loyalty replaces neutrality
•Emergency becomes permanent

[Value Seeker @ValueSeeker_]

Silver-to-Copper ratio

While I am bullish silver, some industrial metals, critical for electrification, seem to offer an even better risk-reward on a mid-term basis.

Copper, whose deficit is expected to become dramatic over the next 15 years, trades now at a very low valuation relative to silver. Indeed, a silver-to-copper ratio 7 standard deviations above its long-term trend suggests that the industrial metal has never been that cheap relative to its precious peer (at least for the last 25 years).

As I am bullish both silver and copper, I expect the ratio to nomalise at some point thanks to a catch up made by copper going up, rather than silver going down.

So, do I sell my silver miners to buy copper producers? No, I let my silver miners run as their momentum is strong, and likely to get stronger when they really begin to ourperform the metal itself (what could happen when enough crowd joins the party). However, I do not increase much my exposure with fresh cash (I built a position large enough already). Given the strong momentum for silver, the share of silver miners in my portfolio could drastically increase over the short-term, solely due to their appreciation relative to other commodity producers.

Fresh cash is currently allocated to commodities with a good catch up potential, such as copper (among others). This is a way to rebalance my portfolio without having to sell, for the moment.

In short: I currently let precious metal miners run in peace & prepare for the second wave (industrial metals).

I would need, later on, to rebalance my portfolio when a given commodity would have taken a too large size relative to others, and fresh cash would not be sufficient to rebalance anymore. In that case, I would sell some winners (whose risk-reward would have become less appealing) to buy more promising assets, which simply lagged.

We're not here yet, but need to be psychologically prepared for it, so that emotions would not interfere much when this becomes necessary.

$COPX $COPJ $SIL

[Y3N47 @Y3N47]

🧠 What the chart shows

Henrik divides his macro model into three layers of indicators:

Leading Indicators (LEI) → Early warning signals
(yield curve, housing data, credit conditions, etc.)
Coincident Indicators (COI) → Real-time economic activity
(employment, industrial production, GDP growth, etc.)

Lagging Indicators (LAGI) → Follow-up measures
(inflation, yields, interest rates, etc.)

📊 Current situation – October 2025

🔹 1. Leading Indicators (top panel)
The LEI flashed a recession signal in November 2024.

This means the early data have already turned negative — just as they did before the 2000, 2007, and 2019 recessions.
Henrik notes: “RECESSION COMING!”
→ This is the classic advance warning, typically 6–12 months before the official NBER recession begins.

🔹 2. Coincident Indicators (middle panel)

The COI touched the equilibrium line in August 2025, meaning real-time economic activity has slowed sharply.

However: there is no confirmed cross yet (“No confirmed signal by end of Q3 2025”).
→ In other words, the recession hasn’t officially started yet, but it’s very close.
→ Historically, after reaching this level, recessions have followed within 2–4 months.

🔹 3. Lagging Indicators (bottom panel)

Inflation and yields are beginning to decline — the classic pattern right after a monetary-policy turning point.

This confirms we’re in the very late stage of the cycle.

🗓️ Henrik’s interpretation

No “official” recession signal yet as of end-Q3 2025.
But the model shows a very high probability that a recession will begin by late Q4 2025 or early 2026.

That perfectly aligns with Henrik’s broader macro roadmap:
Now (Sep–Nov 2025): Blow-off Top phase
2026: Deflationary Crash / Deep Recession
2027–2028: Sovereign-Debt Crisis and Monetary Reset

[Jhinster1 @johnjhin7]

$URA, W. ITS HAPPENING FASTER THAN MOST THOUGHT. THIS IS HOW MARKET WORKS. FYI
#URA #URANIUM

[𝗡𝗲𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗶𝗰 @Negentropic_]

🧵 We’re going to have a large correction — but first, markets go much higher.

Here’s a factual argument against the oversimplified, dogmatic, and frankly dangerous view pushed by “Dr Profit” & others — who are incentivized to talk markets down for engagement & bias.
Let’s unpack it. 👇

[Francis Hunt - The Market Sniper, CMT (MBA) @themarketsniper]

Nothing to do with the RSI.
1. XAU ran it's Daily HVF TARGET.
2. XPT has run its Weekly Target.
3. XAG was in its previous rejection price range of $47-$50's
4. DXY at HVF funnel and TREND channel lows on a weekly hammer.
5. Big data, NFP tomorrow.
6. From (1), (2)&(3) above Precious Metals were in a fast moving singleminded rally, that made key target levels.
Also from (4) above, a one way collapsing USD was at key DXY support levels.

Typical rationalization utilizing a false construct, the RSI is a smoothed lagging math's formula on price data. It follows the price. RSI can be high and remain high a long while, in secular moves. It's is designed to be sensitive to recent momentum.
It's the dead cow, thats towed out the river by the truck. It never steers the truck, it's a lagging derivative of the price moves.

[Frank Giustra @Frank_Giustra]

Listen very carefully to Dalio’s take on where the world is at…..I and many others have been writing about this outcome for over 2 decades. And here we are.

[Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg]

@JDVance

First - FED is terribly late. No doubt about that!!

Now - we can ask ourselves: Is it due to incompetence or political agenda?

I say it is due to incompetence!

Why?

1. Fed follows 2YR Yields. Right now 2YR yield does not support a 50bps cut.

2. Fed follows Core PCE for inflation. Currently at 2.5% - hence too high in comparison to Fed's 2% target.

3. Fed follows NFP as proxy for Labor Market strength. Right now NFP does not support 50bps cut.

What is it that the FED does not get - and why it is due to incompetence?:

a) Inflation is lagging the Business Cycle - which means it rolls over and declines AFTER the Economy deteriorates to an irreversible degree.
Same for 2YR yield. And when it begins to drop fast - it is already too late.
And ... btw... inflation is already much lower than going into previous slowdowns in the economy (before the last many recessions).

Fed is driving the car - looking out the rear window.

b) The NFP numbers are grossly misleading. These are not full-time jobs. Furthermore, it is based on a survey and there are major revisions every year.
AND when the NFP rolls over - it is already TOO late.

c) Fed does not consider MOMENTUM of the Economy. It is like the Momentum of a Supertanker. And right now the Economy is clearly slowing - while the Fed is still trying to slow the Economy.
They should consider that their actions will not have immediate effect. Especially if the consumer is under pressure.

d) And the consumer IS broken. Look to Delinquency Rates for Car loans, Mortgage loans, Credit Cards etc.

e) The Housing Market is frozen solid which has a lagging (and SLOWING) effect on the Economy.

But these are front-looking measures. Which is not what the Fed is doing.

All in all....

The Fed's toolbox is too simple and naive.

Best described as Fed navigates the car driving forwards - while looking out the rear window - or at best - out the side-window of the car.
Meanwhile the Deflation steam train is coming right at us.

And once more the Fed will panic in, when it becomes clear that they are hopelessly behind the curve.

Watch!

Below Business Cycle Model - showing that "Recession IS coming". Fed should try to counter already NOW!

[Reads with Ravi @readswithravi]

12 Must-Read Nonfiction Book’s Visual Summary:

1) Atomic Habits by James Clear

[Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen]

Global #container #shipping rates spiked by 41% in the last week, with the Drewry Composite jumping USD 1,018 to USD 3,527 per 40ft box, a five-month high. Spot rates have spiked as major liners have capitalised on the surge in cargo bookings to introduce peak-season surcharges. Exporters and importers in China and the US are leveraging the 90-day pause on tariff hikes to front-load shipments to the US ahead of the mid-year peak cargo season. The Shanghai to LA rate jumped 57%, while other US and EU routes saw increases in the 30-40% range.

[Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg]

New Inflationary Regime does not mean IMMEDIATE INFLATION.

In fact, Fed is in the process of creating the next DEFLATIONARY BUST into the coming RECESSION.

But - we have seen The Secular Low in inflation - and in the coming decade, inflation will be rising.

COVID STIMULUS was the INVERSE VOLCKER MOMENT [Mark my words!]

First through a painful STAGFLATION.

Later as a part of the background.

And then in 30 years-time - we will see another extreme top in inflation - and we need another Volcker.

[Tony Nash @TonyNashNerd]

I just did Janet Alvarez's show on SiriusXM. Here are my notes (wrote them last night, so the fall in equity markets was expected):

Tariffs
- We all know what happened with tariffs.
- Markets reacted positively, but the fundamental problem is still there with
- China is America’s 3rd largest trade partner. Tariffs are going up and they proposed several countermeasures yesterday:
o Banning U.S. services exports
o Halting IP protection for U.S. companies
o Imposing forced tech transfers
o Banning U.S. food and agricultural products
o Limiting access to China’s financial markets
o Devaluing the RMB
- These are all bad for US importers in the short term. Over time (2-3 mos), the Chinese government will develop a subsidy regime to support their exporters.
- China has domestic deflation from overproduction, 15-20% youth unemployment and an ongoing real estate issue, so there are some real domestic pressures for the Xi regime.
- Since the election in November, I’ve said that China will not align with the Trump administration for 3-6 months. We’re nearly at the 3 month point, so I think it’ll be the end of Q2 before we see notable change on the China front.
- Small businesses in the US will feel this most acutely. It would be very helpful if the administration would develop a PPP-like program to help small business during the volatility.

Equities
- Stocks obviously loved the news, but we still have concerns about some tech and retail stocks, many of which are sensitive to China/Asia supply chains.
- While we’re relieved by today’s rally, this is a temporary reprieve.
- Equities will be pressured the closer we get to the deadline – and as/if things with China intensify.

Dollar, Rates, Oil
- Super interesting to watch the downward pressure on the Dollar and upward pressure on long rates
- Key to remember that the DXY was at 91 when Trump left office in 2021. He’s very comfortable with a lower value on the dollar.
- We saw oil get crushed into the 50s earlier this week – and other commodities like copper and live cattle.
- We don’t expect these rise to the highs we saw in March, so this could have some nice impacts on secondary inflation – at the gas pump, the grocery bill, etc.
- Long rates fell going into the weekend, but spiked as trade conflict intensified. We’re seeing it come off again, which is good news. There was some gossip that China sold USTs this week, but I don’t see any evidence of that happening. They need USTs to anchor their currency since it’s pegged.

[Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕 @KingKong9888]

People are still confused as to how it all works. It is not rocket science.

1) They have a #Gold & #Silver futures exchange, the COMEX.

2) They have a #Gold & #Silver OTC promissory note market, the LBMA.

3) The have #Gold & #Silver ETFs, $GLD & $SLV etc…

4) They link all these together with EFPs (Exchange for Physical Mechanism) which can be pure cash settlements or physical #Gold & #Silver deliveries.

With all this they can flood the entire system with paper, discouraging actual physical #Gold & #Silver withdrawals by the Plebs. They can also move the limited above ground physical #Gold & #Silver around to whichever part of the system that needs it.

It is a diabolically ingenious system with many buffers and fail-safe.

#COMEX #LBMA #EFP #ETF #GLD #SLV

[TheHedgelessHorseman 🏇 @Comm_Invest]

My new wallpaper

[Z @ZeeContrarian1]

The Law of Karma: Beyond Wealth and Success

A few years ago, I met a billionaire who will remain nameless. Over time, I developed a close relationship with his son. His father is notoriously stingy—he underpays his workers, ensured his ex-wife didn’t get a dollar in their divorce, and treats his children more like employees than family.