To me there are four key themes right now in macro for Q1:
1) China re-open
2) The BoJ pivot
3) The Fed is in the area of where they want to be
4) ECB hawks + EGB supply
What is interesting potentially about '23 is these themes don't all intersect "cleanly" across FX and rates.
So many bbg screenshots of CS CDS levels and talking about massive default prob numbers. Zero people actually using same terminal to look at default risk screen...
A very interesting Fed meeting.
As always, the devil is in the details.
Let's have a look at some of the most interesting nuances and market implications.
A thread.
1/
My master's degree completely failed to teach me Python for quant finance (they taught me MATLAB).
So I watched 200 YouTube videos.
And the truth is, 96% of them were a complete waste of time.
But these 8 taught me more than all my PhD professors combined:
Since the G7 oil price cap was announced on Friday, Russia has retaliated cutting gas supply to Germany to zero, and joining forces with Saudi Arabia and others at OPEC+ to reduce global oil production.
I'm going to go to the pub to drink some beer now.